The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008–14 over Jiangxi Province,East China

Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind (extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter (November-February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p=0.0013). This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.     

基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测

随着大规模的风电并网,风电所具有的间歇性与随机性对电力系统的稳定性产生了很大的影响,风电功率预测成为当前解决该问题重要的方式之一.本文利用长短期记忆（LSTM）网络良好的时序记忆特性,将小波分解技术与LSTM深度网络结合,提出基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测模型.首先通过小波分解技术将原始时间序列进行平稳化处理,再建立各子序列样本的LSTM网络预测模型,借助最大似然估计法估计预测误差的高斯分布函数,最终实现对未来4 h时刻的风电功率概率区间预测.最后,采用中国东北某风电场数据对所提方法进行算例分析,结果表明,将小波分解与深度学习方法结合可以较好地提高预测的精度,提高概率预测的区间可靠性.     

Machine learning for pore-water pressure time-series prediction: Application of recurrent neural networks

Knowledge of pore-water pressure(PWP)variation is fundamental for slope stability.A precise prediction of PWP is difficult due to complex physical mechanisms and in situ natural variability.To explore the applicability and advantages of recurrent neural networks(RNNs)on PWP prediction,three variants of RNNs,i.e.,standard RNN,long short-term memory(LSTM)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)are adopted and compared with a traditional static artificial neural network(ANN),i.e.,multi-layer perceptron(MLP).Measurements of rainfall and PWP of representative piezometers from a fully instrumented natural slope in Hong Kong are used to establish the prediction models.The coefficient of determination(R^2)and root mean square error(RMSE)are used for model evaluations.The influence of input time series length on the model performance is investigated.The results reveal that MLP can provide acceptable performance but is not robust.The uncertainty bounds of RMSE of the MLP model range from 0.24 kPa to 1.12 k Pa for the selected two piezometers.The standard RNN can perform better but the robustness is slightly affected when there are significant time lags between PWP changes and rainfall.The GRU and LSTM models can provide more precise and robust predictions than the standard RNN.The effects of the hidden layer structure and the dropout technique are investigated.The single-layer GRU is accurate enough for PWP prediction,whereas a double-layer GRU brings extra time cost with little accuracy improvement.The dropout technique is essential to overfitting prevention and improvement of accuracy.     

Decline of Pseudodiaptomus hessei (Copepoda, Calanoida) in two water bodies located in the Senegal River hydrosystem (West Africa): Hypotheses and perspectives

Pseudodiaptomus hessei is a key species in many water bodies in the Senegal River hydrosystem but it became rare or completely disappeared from two ecosystems (Lake Guiers and Dakar Bango Reservoir; Senegal, West Africa) after major hydrological changes caused by human action, mainly impoundments on the river in 1985, and the opening of a new estuary mouth in 2003. Kâ et al. [Kâ, S., Pagano, M., Ba, N., Bouvy, M., Leboulanger, C., Arfi, R., Thiaw, O.T., Ndour, E.H.M., Corbin, D., Defaye, D., Cuoc, C., Kouassi, E., 2006. Zooplankton distribution related to environmental factors and phytoplankton in a shallow tropical lake (Lake Guiers, Senegal, West Africa). International Review of Hydrobiology 91(5), 389–405] put forward several hypotheses to explain the reasons for this decline: salinity and chemical changes in the water, predation by a cyclopid predator Mesocyclops ogunnus and/or the inhibiting effects of cyanobacteria and/or diatoms (allelopathy). This study assessed these hypotheses by studying the distribution of P. hessei in 13 stations (including the Dakar Bango reservoir and Lake Guiers) in relation to physical, chemical and biological (phyto- and zooplanktons) factors at each station. We produced a distribution pattern for this species in the Senegal River hydrosystem. Rank correlations and principal component analysis showed that P. hessei was not correlated with conductivity but was positively correlated with pH and alkalinity, suggesting chemical effects. The clear association with two filamentous cyanobacteria (Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii and Anabaena sp.) did not appear to support the hypothesis of cyanobacteria inhibition but blooming conditions were never encountered during the study. Negative correlation with diatoms (especially with Fragilaria sp.) suggested that aldehyde producing diatoms had a negative effect. Negative correlations with cyclopids such as Mesocyclops supported the hypothesis of cyclopid predation to explain the decline of P. hessei. This study proposes several lines of research for future studies to test these hypotheses.     

Tectonic Movement and Global Climate Change

Glaciation between northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere were synchronous, the ice age occurred not in high but in low value of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit. Such facts went against the precession principle of the astronomical theory of ice age. The inhomogeneous distribution of climate consisted with the inhomogeneous distribution of ocean and continent. The north/south antisymmetry may be attributed to southward deviation of the thermal center and northward deviation of the mass center within the mantle demonstrated by seismic tomography. The core - mantle angular momentum makes rotational energy into thermal energy and mantle plumes erupt in the ocean bottom. The earth's deformation by tidal force makes the eruption of mantle plumes strong. They are the reason that glaciation between the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere are synchronous and the ice age occurred in low value of the eccentricity of the earth' s orbit. The tectonic movement is playing a most important part in global climate change.     

信息化对旅游产业发展的空间溢出效应

信息化将重塑区域间旅游产业的互动和关联。既有研究虽然对信息化与旅游产业发展之关系有所探讨,但多数研究忽视了信息化对旅游产业发展的空间溢出效应,因而难以准确测量信息化对旅游产业发展的贡献。采用中国大陆31个省份2001-2014年的面板数据,从区域关联的视角构建空间计量模型,测算信息化对旅游产业发展的直接影响和空间溢出影响。结果表明：① 信息化与旅游产业发展均具有显著的空间关联性,传统的计量模型因未考虑个体间的空间交互作用而误估了信息化对旅游产业发展的产出弹性;② 信息化基础设施和信息技术消费对旅游产业发展的作用路径存在差异,单纯的信息化基础设施建设并不一定能促进旅游产业的发展,过度的规模竞争反而会陷入“索洛生产率悖论”;而信息技术消费的提升虽有助于正向的空间溢出,但其空间重构的潜力仍有待释放;③ 固定资产投入、劳动力和旅游接待规模等都是推进旅游产业发展的多维要素,但在信息化的交互影响下,资本和劳动力的空间溢出均不明显,而资源禀赋、环境质量、服务经济占比和产业集聚呈现出显著的负向外溢效应。     

Farmland Abandonment Research Progress: Influencing Factors and Simulation Model

Farmland abandonment is a global problem and considered one of the most important areas in land use change research. Farmland abandonment research currently focuses on understanding the factors that affect farmland abandonment and developing scientific models to simulate farmland abandonment. The study reviewed the natural and political factors driving farmland abandonment and summarized the main models for farmland abandonment simulation together with their advantages and disadvantages. We discuss the main ecological effects of farmland abandonment and propose farmland abandonment research directions. The study found that: (1) the influence of labor cost change and ageing labor force on farmland abandonment needs further investigation, (2) simulation models for farmland abandonment must include the decision-making mechanism of individual farmers and focus on macro large-scale abandonment prediction models, and (3) the influence of farmland abandonment on landscape culture must be investigated in detail.     

Effects of installation on the cyclic axial behaviour of suction buckets in sandy soils

Suction buckets differ with their easy and cost-efficient installation technique from other foundation types for offshore wind turbines. For successful completion of their installation process, suction is essential, but the imposed seepage leads to the changes in states of the soil in and around the bucket. Especially, a loosening of soil inside the bucket affects the load carrying behaviour of bucket subjected to repetitive loading resulting from environmental conditions. In this study, the behaviour of buckets under cyclic axial compressive loads with considering a possible loosening and related changes in permeability of soil inside the bucket is investigated numerically. In the framework of finite element analysis, a fully coupled two-phase model and a hypoplastic constitutive model are used to describe the saturated sandy soil behaviour under repetitive loading. The porosity-permeability variation is taken into account by Kozeny–Carman relationship. Special attention is dedicated to load carrying behaviour of bucket top plate, inner and outer skirt as well as base and their changes resulting from a loosening of soil inside the bucket with variable aspect ratio. For this purpose, cyclic axial compressive loads which cause an attenuation and progressive failure of soil-bucket system response are considered. The main findings on the changes in load carrying behaviour of bucket are presented and discussed.     

不同开口比人工鱼礁体水动力特性及礁体稳定性研究

为研究方型人工鱼礁体开口比的变化对其水动力特性的影响,利用Fluent软件模拟了边长为3m、开口比为0～0.6之间7种不同方型鱼礁体周围水流场,通过分析水流场变化规律得到了礁体流场效应、阻力系数随开口比的变化情况;基于Morison方程计算了礁体在波流作用下的受力及其抗滑移、抗倾覆安全系数。研究结果表明:当礁体开口比小于0.2时,背涡区范围较大,流场效应明显;随着开口比的增大,礁体产生的上升流范围及竖直向最大速度分量逐渐减小;对于方形开口礁体,阻力系数与开口比的关系式为Cd=0.875φ+1.088(R2=0.963,P<0.01);随着开口比的增大,礁体所受最大波流作用力、抗滑移及抗倾覆安全系数逐渐减小,但礁体不会发生滑移和倾覆,可为实际礁体结构的设计提供参考。     

Astronomical Image Co-adding Method based on Wide-field Image Deconvolution

Due to the atmospheric turbulence, the static aberration, tracking and pointing errors of telescopes, the point spread functions (PSFs) in different fields of view are different. Meanwhile, there are different PSFs in the images obtained by different telescopes. The quality of co-adding image is limited by the image with the poorest quality, and finally the resolution and sensitivity of the quad-channel telescope will also be affected. Dividing the image into some regions with the same type of PSF, and deconvolving these regions can improve the quality of the co-adding image. According to this theory, an image restoration algorithm based on the PSF clustering is proposed. Firstly, this paper makes the PSF clustering analysis by using Self-Organizing Maps, and makes the image segmentation based on the result of the PSF clustering analysis, then using the clustered PSFs to make deconvolutions on the sub-images. Then, the restored sub-images after deconvolution are joined together. Finally, by through the image registration and co-adding, the image with a high signal to noise ratio can be obtained. The result shows that the signal to noise ratio of the astronomical images are improved with our method, and the detection capability on faint stars is also improved.