The identification and criteria of short-term seismicity gap before a great earthquake

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浅谈雅江县城南各种地质灾害的关系

对雅江县城南地质灾害的产生原因作了查明，为下一步综合整治提供依据。     

沉积盆地流体—岩石相互作用研究的现状

沉积盆地流体－岩石相互作用研究主要是通过实验地球化学和岩石学，地球化学模拟方法开展的，综述了这一领域的研究现状，主要包括有机酸来源和分布及期 对矿物稳定性的影响，地层水成因与演化、烃类与岩石间的氧化还原反应、以及储层润湿性的变化等，并展望了其 发展趋势。     

Characterisation of brown coal humic acids and modified humic acids using pyrolysis gcms and other techniques

It has been proposed that Victorian brown coal can be considered as a two-component structure — a lignocellulosic “host”, containing various amounts of weakly bound or entrapped “guest” material together with very small amounts of inorganic and/or mineral matter. The latter predominantly consists of wax esters and/or terpenoid material. In this paper we describe attempts to gain structural information regarding the more complex, “host” component of the coal. Our initial model compound has been humic acid that can be readily obtained from the coal by alkaline extraction. It has been found that “pure” humic acid, free from material associated with the “guest” components of the coal, can be obtained by a highly selective, low-yielding alkaline extraction. This humic acid has been studied by nmr spectroscopy and pyrolysis gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (py-gc/ms). The products arising from py-gc/ms have been compared with those obtained from similar pyrolysis of whole coals. Alkylation of humic acids using alkyl halides in the presence of base has been successfully carried out and reactivity of the resulting materials compared with those of the parent coal and humic acid.     

鄂西震旦系上统含磷岩系的划分与对比

上震旦统陡山沱组是鄂西地区最具工业价值的含磷地层。著名的磷矿有荆襄磷矿、宜昌磷矿、兴(山)神(农架)保(康)磷矿。迄今已有20多年的勘探史,但由于各矿区研究程度不一,又缺古生物依据,亦不能依靠同位素年龄来作划分对比,故在地层及磷矿层的划分、对比上认识不一。笔者结合磷矿特征及含磷岩系岩类组合、剖面结构特点、稀土元素特征等,将本区划分为4个磷矿分布区,将陡山沱组划分为3个岩性段、5个含磷层位。     

静海地震台地磁短周期变化及其在地震短临预报中的应用

近年来的一些研究表明，由于地震前孕震区地下介质的电性结构的变化，将导致地磁短周期转换函数发生异常变化。通过对地震前后的地磁短周期转换函数的参数的计算、分析和研究，有可能提取出可靠的地震短临前兆异常（曾小苹等，１９９０）。为了进一步开展对该方法研究工作并使其在我区地震预测预报研究中得到应用，我们使用了静海台的地磁记录资料，分析计算了该台地磁短周期转换函数在地震前后的变化情况，确立了该方法应用天津地区地震预报的短临异常特征及指标，取得了较好的效果。     

利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料，覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明，在此37年时间内，等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟，其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近，主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位，假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件，则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件，由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件，而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明，由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区，因此，主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k，m之间存在强烈的相关性，利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围，可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围，提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合，80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望，因此，利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.      

Effect of vegetation with different evolution degree on soil organic matter in a semi-arid environment (Cabo de Gata-Níjar Natural Park, SE Spain)

The organic matter of the surface horizons of soils developed below scrub vegetation in a Mediterranean semi-arid area of great environmental interest (Cabo de Gata-Níjar Natural Park, SE Spain) has been studied. The study mainly concentrates on examining the influence of two vegetation types, one evolved (according to its successional stage), and the other clearly degraded as a result of prior removal of vegetation. In spite of the homogeneity in the results obtained from the analysis of the organic matter from the soils studied, a relationship may be established between vegetation biotype and characteristics and evolution of the soil organic matter. The evolved vegetation results in the presence in the soil of a somewhat more evolved and stable organic matter (demonstrated by certain chemical and microbiological aspects), resulting in a greater degree of humification, thus favouring the protection of the soil and the ecosystem as a whole. Hence, the presence of degraded vegetation might lead to soil degradation, something that is unsustainable in semi-arid areas that are particularly fragile in nature.     

Transformation of arsenic compounds in modern intertidal sediments of Iriomote Island, Japan

The arsenic accumulation process in intertidal sediments of Iriomote Island, Japan, is analyzed as a naturally balanced arsenic-fixation system. Major and minor element chemistry is analyzed by X-ray fluorescence photometry, mineralogy is investigated by X-ray diffractometry, and four arsenic compounds are characterized by hydrogen-generated atomic absorption photometry. It is found that arsenic is accumulated by iron hydroxides/oxides precipitated following the decomposition of humic acids in the shallower sediment, and is subsequently incorporated into iron sulfide minerals at depth. The arsenic is immobile during incorporation into arsenic-bearing phases, suggesting that arsenic is unlikely to be released into the porewater under natural conditions in early diagenesis. The formation and decomposition of arsenic-bearing organic compounds appear to be associated with the formation and decomposition of arsenic in oxyhydroxides/oxides, suggesting that microbial activity may play an important role in controlling the behavior of arsenic and arsenic-bearing phases in the sediment column.     

基于Markov chain理论的科技成果转化的市场预测

科技成果成功转化的主要标志是其产品的市场畅销度。产品的畅销度由于受各种内外部不确定因素影响，具有随机不确定性。基于这种随机不确定性，运用Markov chain对其产品进行市场预测，并通过实证分析说明其有效性，为科技成果的转化提供具体可行的定量依据。