基于GPS的短基线定向测量及精度分析

介绍了利用GPS载波相位测量技术进行短基线定向的基本方法,推导了估计GPS短基线定向的精度公式,得到了对于边长400～700 m的基线可以达到±(1"～2")的方位精度.     

Application of deep learning technique to the sea surface height prediction in the South China Sea

A deep-learning-based method, called ConvLSTMP3, is developed to predict the sea surface heights(SSHs).ConvLSTMP3 is data-driven by treating the SSH prediction problem as the one of extracting the spatial-temporal features of SSHs, in which the spatial features are "learned" by convolutional operations while the temporal features are tracked by long short term memory(LSTM). Trained by a reanalysis dataset of the South China Sea(SCS), ConvLSTMP3 is applied to the SSH prediction in a region of the SCS east off Vietnam coast featured with eddied and offshore currents in summer. Experimental results show that ConvLSTMP3 achieves a good prediction skill with a mean RMSE of 0.057 m and accuracy of 93.4% averaged over a 15-d prediction period. In particular,ConvLSTMP3 shows a better performance in predicting the temporal evolution of mesoscale eddies in the region than a full-dynamics ocean model. Given the much less computation in the prediction required by ConvLSTMP3,our study suggests that the deep learning technique is very useful and effective in the SSH prediction, and could be an alternative way in the operational prediction for ocean environments in the future.     

Low-cycle fatigue crack initiation life of hull-notched plate considering short crack effect and accumulative plastic damage

When studying the low-cycle fatigue crack initiation life of notched plates, the effects of fatigue short crack and accumulative plastic damage in the vicinity of the notch should be considered. The low-cycle fatigue crack initiation life of notched plates has been revised in the analysis process by considering the short crack initiation and expansion of notch stress concentration area. By determining the accumulative plastic deformation in the vicinity of a notch under low-cycle fatigue loads, a predictive model of low-cycle fatigue crack initiation life was presented for notched plates, and the relative influence factors were quantitatively analyzed. A comparison study verified that the results obtained from the presented calculation model correlate quite well with those from the existing experiments. Some important conclusions were drawn from the study on considering the effects of short crack and accumulative plastic damage. The presented method may be used for predicting the low-cycle fatigue crack initiation life of ship plate.     

The tensile and swelling behavior of cement-stabilized marine clay reinforced with short waste fibers

Abstract

Short waste fibers are used to suppress the expansion and improve the tensile strength of cement-stabilized marine clay (CMC). The fiber-reinforced mechanism and characteristics are revealed by experimental and numerical methods. First, the curing effect of the CMC when adding a composite curing agent is observed by scanning electronic microscopy, as is the contact surface between the fiber and the matrix. Then, the expansion rate and the tensile strength of fiber-reinforced cement-stabilized marine clay (FCMC) are illustrated by an expansion experiment and a direct tensile experiment, respectively. The results show that the sample with the cement content of 0.1% and the fiber length of 10?mm is the best in terms of strength enhancement and expansion inhibition. Finally, the mechanism of fiber reinforcement is discussed following a single fiber pullout experiment and some comprehensive explanations are proposed to verify the results of the tensile experiment. A numerical simulation of a single fiber pullout from a matrix is established by using a cohesive contact model. The comparison between the numerical results and the experimental results shows that the two models can be in good agreement, indicating that the calculation model of the interaction between the fiber and the matrix is realistic.     

Reflection of Short Waves

—According to the energy equation,the relation between reflection and energy losses for shortwaves from mild beaches is established and analysed.A reflection coefficient varying with position and en-ergy losses is proposed.Different reflection tests are conducted to check the theoretical analysis.A modi-fied method to estimate the reflection coefficient at varied water depths is suggested based on the linearwave theory.The study indicates that the reflection coefficient from mild beaches has a changing trend forshort waves approaching shoreline.     

强对流天气短时临近预报业务技术进展与挑战

强对流天气短时临近预报业务是国家防灾减灾、重大社会活动和精细化天气预报的迫切需要。虽然我国强对流天气短时临近预报业务已经取得了巨大进展,但与国外先进水平相比还有不少差距。本文总结了近年国内外强对流天气短时临近预报业务现状、技术进展、目前国内的技术支撑状况和所面临的挑战,并提出了相应的应对措施。目前强对流天气短时临近预报技术仍然主要是外推预报技术、数值预报技术和概念模型预报技术等,但快速更新循环的高时空分辨率数值模式预报和新一代静止气象卫星资料将在强对流天气短时临近预报中发挥重要作用。强对流天气监测、分析和机理研究是强对流天气短时临近预报的重要基础;先进的外推预报方法同快速更新循环的高时空分辨率数值模式预报以及二者的融合是未来强对流天气短时临近预报的重要发展方向。     

GPS卫星实时精密定轨及初步结果分析

提出了导航卫星实时精密定轨的滑动窗口短弧法方程综合方法。通过对全球70个IGS站的观测数据进行仿实时解算的结果表明,与IGS事后精密轨道相比,实时轨道精度达5 cm左右,达到IGS事后快速轨道精度的水平。     

Analysis of agricultural drought in Iiuni,Eastern Kenya: application of a Markov model

In semi‐arid Kenya, episodes of agricultural droughts of varying severity and duration occur. The occurrence of these agricultural droughts is associated with seasonal rainfall variability and can be reflected by seasonal soil moisture deficits that significantly affect crop performance and yield. The objective of this study was to stochastically simulate the behaviour of dry and wet spells and rainfall amounts in Iiuni watershed, Kenya. The stochastic behaviour of the longest dry and wet spells (runs) and largest rainfall amounts were simulated using a Markov (order 1) model. There were eight raingauge stations within the watershed. The entire analysis was carried out using probability parameters, i.e. mean, variance, simple and conditional probabilities of dry and rain days. An analysis of variance test (ANOVA ) was used to establish significant differences in rainfall characteristics between the eight stations. An analysis of the number of rain days and rainfall amount per rain day was done on a monthly basis to establish the distribution and reliability of seasonal rainfall. The graphic comparison of simulated cumulative distribution functions (Cdfs) of the longest spells and largest rainfall amounts showed Markovian dependence or persistence. The longest dry spells could extend to 24 days in the long rainy season and 12 in the short rainy season. At 50% (median) probability level, the largest rainfall amounts were 91 mm for the long rainy season and 136 mm for the short rainy season. The short rains were more reliable for crop production than the long rains. The Markov model performed well and gave adequate simulations of the spells and rainfall amounts under semi‐arid conditions. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

跨断层形变不同观测方法的对比分析

基于安丘地震台跨断层短水准、短基线和MD断层蠕变观测同期资料的变化特点、干扰特征,采用相关分析方法讨论了三者之间的关系.结果表明:1)安丘定点短水准观测受温度和地下水位的影响,与温度负相关,与地下水位正相关;安丘基线与温度显著相关,相关系数达0.95;MD断层蠕变观测水平正交、斜交和垂直观测均受温度影响,MD断层水平正交、斜交长期资料与温度相关性很好,相关系数分别为0.98和0.99,但短时间MD观测与温度相关性比较复杂,观测到的地表形变超前于温度变化;垂直观测分量在不同的季节,观测值与温度相关程度不同.2)短基线和MD断层水平正交一致性较好,在场地合适的情况下可进行对比观测;短水准和MD垂直观测分量没有明显的一致性变化特征,MD仪安装在半地下室的情况下,两者不适合进行同步观测.     

基于大规模手机位置数据的城市潜在自行车出行需求评估

潜在自行车出行是指可能会使用自行车作为交通工具的出行,评估潜在自行车出行需求能够帮助指导城市自行车资源配置方案的优化。大规模手机位置数据蕴含丰富的人群移动信息,而且具有大样本、低成本的特点,能够用于评估城市潜在自行车出行需求。本文结合自行车出行的时间和距离特征,提出一种基于大规模手机位置数据的潜在自行车出行需求评估方法。该方法以单次出行为分析单元,从手机用户的轨迹中提取出具有短距离出行特征和公共交通接驳出行特征的移动轨迹段,并根据该移动轨迹段评估潜在自行车出行需求。基于该方法,利用上海市大规模手机位置数据评估上海市潜在自行车出行需求并分析其时空分布特征,发现在空间上,潜在自行车短距离出行需求主要分布在城市中心和郊区的商业中心,而公共交通接驳的自行车需求主要分布在郊区。在时间上,上午,自行车出行需求从非中心城区向中心城区聚拢;晚上,上海市自行车出行骑车与停车需求从中心城区向非中心城区扩散。