Spatial and seasonal variability of sediment accumulation potential through controlled flooding of the beels located in the polders of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta of Southwest Bangladesh

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta plain within Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable to relative sea level rise (RSLR) in the world especially under current anthropogenically modified (i.e., embanked) conditions. Tidal river management (TRM) as practiced in coastal regions of Bangladesh may provide an opportunity to combat RSLR by raising the land level through controlled sedimentation inside beels (depression within embanked polders) with re-opening of polders. To date, TRM has been applied to tide-dominated coastal regions, but the potential applicability of TRM for the beels within the polders of river-dominated and mixed flow (MF) regimes remains to be assessed. We apply a calibrated 2D numerical hydromorphodynamic model to quantify sediment deposition in a beel flooded through breaching of the polder dike under conditions of river-dominated, tide-dominated and MF regimes for different seasons and applying different regulation schemes for the flow into the beel. Simulation results show considerable seasonality in sediment deposition with largest deposition during the monsoon season. The potential of controlled flooding is highest in the tide-dominated region, where sediment accumulation can be up to 28 times higher than in the river-dominated region. Regulating flow into a beel increases trapping efficiency, but results in slightly lower total deposition than without regulation. We conclude that re-establishing flooding of the beel within the polder without regulating the flow into the beel through breaching of the polder dike is a promising strategy for the mixed and tide-dominated flow regions in the delta as the sediment accumulation can raise the land surface at a higher rate than RSLR and effective SLR (ESLR). In the more upstream river-dominated section of the delta, accumulation rates would be much lower, but the pressure of sea level rise on these areas is lower as well. Owing to the abundant availability of sediment, application of controlled flooding like TRM therefore provides an opportunity to counteract the impact of RSLR and ESLR by means of land raising, particularly along the tidal river reaches in the GBM delta.     

特大型桥梁施工GPS高程控制网技术研究

探索了采用GPS技术建立桥梁施工高程控制网的难点及关键问题,分析了GPS跨河高程传递测量方法的技术要点,结合工程实例得出了一些结论和建议。     

基于海洋气候数据集的区域海平面变化非线性预测

本文基于中国首套长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的全球海洋气候数据集产品, 利用1993年1月至2015年12月的山东半岛近海海平面异常数据, 构建了基于集合经验模式分解(EEMD)和长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)的海平面非线性变化组合预测模型。EEMD可以得到海平面异常的各周期项、线性趋势及残差部分, LSTM模型可对其进行逐个预测并重构得到最终的海平面异常预测结果。EEMD-LSTM组合模型海平面异常预测的均方根误差仅为25.87 mm, 取得了令人满意的效果。基于该组合模型预测2016-2025年山东半岛近海海平面上升速率将达到3.54 mm·a^-1。     

基于稳定同位素方法的吕泗渔场近岸海域主要生物潜在碳源及营养级分析

基于稳定同位素方法,对2018年吕泗渔场近岸海域夏季主要生物种类的潜在碳源及其营养级进行分析,利用IsoSource模型计算该海域消费者的3大碳源（浮游植物、悬浮颗粒有机物、底质有机物）贡献值,并比较叠加潜在碳源影响前后主要生物种类的营养级变化。结果表明,浮游植物和底质有机物对37种主要生物种类的贡献比例分别为58.7%和28.2%,而悬浮颗粒有机物的贡献较小。因此判定吕泗渔场近岸海域夏季主要生物种类的潜在碳源主要是浮游植物和底质有机物。通过分别叠加3大潜在碳源和单一物种作为基准值构建两个营养级谱,右营养级谱的生物种类营养级范围为1.74～3.92,比左营养级谱平均下降0.19个营养级,尽管两个营养级谱的整体趋势走向不变,但部分鱼类和多数虾类的营养位置发生改变。右营养级谱的基准值随着潜在碳源叠加比例的不同而变化,能有效反映生物营养级,更适用于低营养级的虾蟹类。但对于处于中高级消费者位置的鱼类来说,这种叠加的效果影响不大。     

A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.     

SSA1—1型声学水位在长江口潮位站的应用

本文介绍了长江口区水文泥沙概况，举例说明了ＳＳＡ１－１型声水位计在崇头潮位站比测试验和投产应用情况，结果表明该水位计是收集长江口区潮位资料较理想的仪器。     

垦东滩海地区浅部储层精细描述

我国东部滩海地区浅部具有地震采集条件差、资料品质低、储层岩性变化大、砂泥和泥岩难以区分等缺点,导致储层描述较为困难。为了解决这一问题,以垦东滩海地区为例,通过井震结合,形成了"合成地震记录标定、地震反演追踪、属性提取查明"的储层精细描述方法。在具体描述时,先将环境校正后的合成地震记录与井旁地震道相位、能量准确对比,从而标定储层;同时进行测井约束下的地震反演,从而实现砂岩储层的横向追踪;并通过均方根振幅属性提取,明确储层的平面分布。储层描述发现,垦东滩海地区馆陶组IV砂组储层呈SN向条带状分布,显示曲流河沉积特征。     

Response of a climate model to tidal mixing parameterization under present day and last glacial maximum conditions

Experiments with a climate model were conducted under present day and last glacial maximum conditions in order to examine the model’s response to a vertical mixing scheme based on internal tide energy dissipation. The increase in internal tide energy flux caused by a 120 m reduction in sea level had the expected effect on diffusivity values, which were higher under lower sea level conditions. The impact of this vertical diffusivity change on the Atlantic meridional overturning is not straightforward and no clear relationship between diffusivity and overturning is found. There exists a weak positive correlation between overturning and changes to the power consumed by vertical mixing. Most of the climatic response generated by sea level change was not related to alterations in the internal tide energy flux but rather to the direct change in sea level itself.     

Lacustrine basin unconventional resource plays: Key differences

There has been a revival in hydrocarbon source rock characterization and development associated with growing interest in unconventional resources, where these fine-grained organic-rich rocks act as both source and reservoir. To-date, the exploration focus on shale reservoirs has been largely on marine systems. Lacustrine source rocks for conventional resources are geographically important, dominating regions such as China, Indonesia, and Brazil's resource-base. However, they have been generally untested for unconventional resources.There are a number of key differences in the nature of these hydrocarbon systems that should be considered when assessing whether lacustrine systems may represent future unconventional opportunities in areas where the conventional resource-base is dominated by lacustrine-sourced oil. Among the key differences between these depositional systems is the greater sensitivity to high frequency climatic variability within lacustrine systems. Lacustrine systems are highly sensitive to changes in the balance between precipitation and evaporation, which may lead to rapid changes in lake level, potentially exceeding 600 m. These changes in depositional conditions are geologically rapid and may occur over periods of thousands of years. Such changes can reduce the areal extent of potentially thick source rock intervals to only those portions of a basin where a permanent deep lake was present. Thus the core unconventional target area may be geographically limited compared with their marine counterpart. Although potentially areally limited, a review of many lacustrine source rocks suggests that their thicknesses are often significantly greater than marine source rocks. An examination of the more distal portions of lacustrine systems, where better source rock potential is present reveals that there is generally limited connectivity between source and conventional reservoir. In these settings, such as the Wind River basin (Waltman Shale), the hydrocarbons remain trapped within the shales, potentially leading to over-pressured hydrocarbon charged systems. Such conditions suggest that although areally limited, viable unconventional targets may exist, if suitable reservoir conditions are present. Finally, the character of the oils produced is different in these settings, with lacustrine oils being waxy and displaying different hydrocarbon generation and cracking kinetics. High wax oils display distinct flow characteristics, being more viscous, and may offer different production challenges than their non-waxy marine equivalents. Additionally, differences in their cracking kinetics may indicate that the timing of gas generation for shale gas plays may differ significantly from marine systems.     

Guest editorial

The Jason-1 satellite was launched on 7 December 2001 with the primary objective of continuing the high accuracy time series of altimeter measurements that began with the TOPEX/Poseidon mission in 1992. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to validate the performance of the Jason-1 measurement system, and to verify that its error budget is at least at the same level as that of the TOPEX/Poseidon mission. The article reviews the main components of the Jason-1 altimetric error budget from instrument characterization to the geophysical use of the data. Using the Interim Geophysical Data Records (16DR) that were distributed to the Jason-1 Science Working Team during the verification phase of the mission, it is shown that the Jason-1 mission is performing well enough to continue studies of the large-scale features of the ocean, and especially to continue time series of mean sea-level variations with an accuracy comparable to TOPEX/Poseidon.