新丰江水库地震序列的分段研究

从新丰江水库地震序列分段、地震序列参数统计、地震序列分段与库水位关系等方面探讨新丰江地区的地震特征.结果表明:①水库地震全序列低b值(≤0.9)时段与大区域地震活动的增强存在一定的相关性,余震活动在一定程度上具有华南地区地震活动“窗口”的作用.②水库地震晚期余震释放阶段55个ML≥3.5级地震分序列研究显示,1975年...     

A new estimate of global methane flux from onshore and shallow submarine mud volcanoes to the atmosphere

A new estimate of global methane emission into the atmosphere from mud volcanoes (MVs) on land and shallow seafloor is presented. The estimate, considered a lower limit, is based on 1) new direct measurements of flux, including both venting of methane and diffuse microseepage around craters and vents, and 2) a classification of MV sizes in terms of area (km²) based on a compilation of data from 120 MVs. The methane flux to the atmosphere is conservatively estimated between 6 and 9 Mt y^–1. This emission from MVs is 3–6% of the natural methane sources and is comparable with ocean and hydrate sources, officially considered in the atmospheric methane budget. The total geologic source, including MVs, seepage from seafloor, microseepage in hydrocarbon-prone areas and geothermal sources, would amount to 35–45 Mt y^–1. The authors believe it is time to add this parameter in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change official tables of atmospheric methane sources.GEM     

Dynamic land use change simulation using cellular automata with spatially nonstationary transition rules

The dynamic relationships between land use change and its driving forces vary spatially and can be identified by geographically weighted regression (GWR). We present a novel cellular automata (GWR-CA) model that incorporates GWR-derived spatially varying relationships to simulate land use change. Our GWR-CA model is characterized by spatially nonstationary transition rules that fully address local interactions in land use change. More importantly, each driving factor in our GWR model contains effects that both promote and resist land use change. We applied GWR-CA to simulate rapid land use change in Suzhou City on the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015. The GWR coefficients were visualized to highlight their spatial patterns and local variation, which are closely associated with their effects on land use change. The transition rules indicate low land conversion potential in the city’s center and outer suburbs, but higher land conversion potential in the inner near suburbs along the belt expressway. Residual statistics show that GWR fits the input data better than logistic regression (LR). Compared with an LR-based CA model, GWR-CA improves overall accuracy by 4.1% and captures 5.5% more urban growth, suggesting that GWR-CA may be superior in modeling land use change. Our results demonstrate that the GWR-CA model is effective in capturing spatially varying land transition rules to produce more realistic results, and is suitable for simulating land use change and urban expansion in rapidly urbanizing regions.     

山西长治盆地中更新世气候转型期环境变化特征

中更新世气候转型(MPT)是第四纪环境变化的一个重要时期,该时期气候模式、气候周期等均发生了明显变化,然而不同区域对中更新世气候转型的响应特征存在明显差异.本研究选取了长治盆地XZK4钻孔中更新世转型前后(1.8～0.1 Ma)共207个样品,通过古地磁定年,运用粒度端元分析和孢粉分析,阐述了长治盆地中更新世转型期的环境变化与湖泊演化特征.结果显示,1.8 Ma以来,孢粉组合中乔木花粉含量多高于60％,但个别时段草本植物花粉占优,显示区域植被多数阶段为森林,但存在明显冷期,并且1.1 Ma和0.55 Ma是研究区环境转变的重要转折点.中更新世转型期前(～1.1 Ma):沉积物粒度总体较细,黏土含量多高于25％,EM1组分(湖相沉积)多高于60％,EM3(河流相组分)在个别时段出现,总体显示该阶段沉积物组成以湖相沉积为主,个别阶段受到河流影响大;中更新世转型时期(1.1～0.55 Ma):沉积物粒度较上一阶段更细,黏土含量(平均为30％)、EM1占比和孢粉浓度均达到研究段最高,沉积物颜色以棕灰色为主,EM3组分占比降至最低,其中1.1～0.95 Ma喜冷的云杉属花粉出现,显示该时期研究区气候总体偏冷湿,湖泊面积较1.1 Ma之前扩大;中更新世转型后(～0.55 Ma):沉积物粒度明显变粗,达到钻孔最高值,沉积物颜色变黄,EM2(风成组分)和EM3占主导,草本植物含量增加,尤其是喜干的蒿属花粉增加明显,表明气候较之前变干,沉积物类型以风力沉积为主,湖泊消亡.综合对比显示,构造运动是影响长治古湖消长的主要驱动力,气候变干加剧了湖泊消亡.     

Separate and interactive effects of eutrophication and climate variables on the ecosystem elements of the Gulf of Riga

There is currently a critical knowledge gap in how eutrophication and climate variables separately and interactively impact the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Based on long-term monitoring data we quantified the separate and combined impacts of nutrient loading, temperature, salinity, and wind conditions on zooplankton, zoobenthos and fish inhabiting a brackish water ecosystem in the Gulf of Riga. Changes in zoobenthos communities and herring stock were largely explained by climate variables. Zooplankton species were related to both eutrophication and climate variables, and models combining all environmental variables explained additional variation in zooplankton data compared to the separate models of climate and eutrophication. This suggests that zoobenthos communities and herring stock are largely driven by weather conditions, whereas the combined effect of weather and nutrient loads are likely the cause for dynamic zooplankton communities in the Gulf of Riga.     

Paleofire reconstruction for high-elevation forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, with implications for wildfire synchrony and climate variability in the late Holocene

Here, we present two high-resolution records of macroscopic charcoal from high-elevation lake sites in the Sierra Nevada, California, and evaluate the synchroneity of fire response for east- and west-side subalpine forests during the past 9200 yr. Charcoal influx was low between 11,200 and 8000 cal yr BP when vegetation consisted of sparse Pinus-dominated forest and montane chaparral shrubs. High charcoal influx after ∼ 8000 cal yr BP marks the arrival of Tsuga mertensiana and Abies magnifica, and a higher-than-present treeline that persisted into the mid-Holocene. Coeval decreases in fire episode frequency coincide with neoglacial advances and lower treeline in the Sierra Nevada after 3800 cal yr BP. Independent fire response occurs between 9200 and 5000 cal yr BP, and significant synchrony at 100- to 1000-yr timescales emerges between 5000 cal yr BP and the present, especially during the last 2500 yr. Indistinguishable fire-return interval distributions and synchronous fires show that climatic control of fire became increasingly important during the late Holocene. Fires after 1200 cal yr BP are often synchronous and corroborate with inferred droughts. Holocene fire activity in the high Sierra Nevada is driven by changes in climate linked to insolation and appears to be sensitive to the dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

基于瓦片数据的DEM构建与显示

对于大规模地形而言,地形网格的实时动态绘制速度和质量一直是人们关注的重点。地形漫游在仿真、模拟、虚拟现实、游戏等领域都有广泛的应用。该文在研究多种层次算法的基础上,采用一种地形瓦片重组数据结构的方法实现实时高帧率的绘制大规模地形。分析了地形场景数据管理与实时调度,视相关多层次细节模型与可见性判断以及分层数据组织和瓦片数据绘制等关键问题,并给出了相应的解决方法,改进了视景体裁切重组地形数据的方法。实验结果表明该方法在保持地形逼真的前提下,有很好的绘制网格帧率和实时动态交互效果。     

Social and structural vulnerabilities: Associations with disaster readiness

The ability to plan for a disaster is associated with a range of contextual factors and often traverses several sites of inequities, including sociodemographic and institutional disparities. While multiple studies have investigated the relationship of housing insecurity with adverse outcomes after a disaster, fewer studies have examined how housing insecurity is associated with disaster preparedness. This paper hypothesizes social and structural vulnerabilities to be directly associated with preparedness. Housing insecurity is posited to have both direct and multiplicative effects with social vulnerability on the dependent variable. We use nationally representative data from the 2017 American Housing Survey. The final weighted study sample consisted of 29,070 housing units, with 52% male and 48% female householders. Fifty-seven percent of the population was not prepared with food, water, emergency funds, and transportation. Housing security and quality emerged as important conditions for households to be better prepared. Further, housing insecurity moderated the relationship between some social vulnerability factors and preparedness. The study helps identify where resources and research funds should be targeted to reduce multidimensional vulnerabilities before a disaster. Safe and affordable housing is central to climate and environmental justice; centering disaster readiness, response, and climate action across policy agendas is vital.     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

An analysis of changes in the urban landscape composition and configuration in the Sancaktepe District of Istanbul Metropolitan City,Turkey using landscape metrics and satellite data

Changes in landscape composition and configuration patterns of Sancaktepe Municipal District in the Asian side of Istanbul Metropolitan City of Turkey were analysed using landscape metrics. Class-level and landscape-level metrics were calculated from the land cover/land use data using Patch Analyst, an extension in the Arc View GIS. The land cover/land use data were derived from classified satellite images of Landsat Thematic Mapper of 2002 and 2009 for Sancaktepe District. There was evidence of increase in agglomeration process of built-up patches as indicated by the increases in mean patch size, decrease in total edge and number of patches between 2002 and 2009. The urban expansion pattern experienced overall was not fragmented but concentrated due to infilling around existing patches. Changes in Area-Weighted Mean Shape Index and Area-Weighted Patch Fractal Dimension Index indicated that the physical shapes within built-up, forest and bareland areas were relatively complex and irregular. A conclusion is made in this study that spatial metrics are useful tools to describe the urban landscape composition and configuration in its various aspects and certain decisions whether to approve a specific development in urban planning could, for example, be based on some measures of urban growth form or pattern in terms of uniformity and irregularity, attributable to the dynamic processes of agglomeration and fragmentation of land cover/land use patches caused by urban expansion.