Inverse reconstructions of ecosystem flows in investigating regime shifts: impact of the choice of objective function

Inverse analysis is increasingly used in ecosystem modelling to objectively reconstruct a large number of unknown flows or interactions from a small number of observations. This type of analysis may be useful in relating observed regime shifts in ecosystem structure to underlying processes. Inversions of ecosystem flow networks currently use a constrained least-squares solution which at the same time minimizes the squared norm (the sum of squares) of the reconstructed flows. This minimum norm (MN) inversion is thought to be a parsimonious solution to the ecosystem flow inverse problem, but it may well not reflect how ecosystems are organised. It has been proposed instead that ecosystems evolve to maximize energy/mass flows or that they maximize the information content of the network weighted by ecosystem flows (ascendancy). We used simulated inverse experiments, where inverse analyses are applied to simulations of flow networks, to explore objective functions different than the MN generally used. We could not compute inverse solutions that maximize ascendancy because the objective function is unbounded. We could calculate inversions that maximize flows; however, these generally overestimated the simulated flows, even though the simulations were designed to maximize flows. It appears that the ecosystem flow inverse problem is too under-determined (too few data relative to the number of unknowns) to allow the use of these maximizing goal functions. We introduce a new minimization that simultaneously minimizes the squared flows and the squared differences between flows. This smoothing minimization makes the inverse flows as even as possible and it helps with some technical issues with MN inversions. The simulated inverse experiments indicated that this smoothed norm (SM) is the most robust in comparative analyses of contrasting ecosystem states, such as those that can be associated with regime shifts. Like the MN inversion, the SM inversion has no ecological basis. However, it is a conservative norm that is less likely to produce false differences between the dynamics of regimes.     

Response-based method for determining the extreme behaviour of floating offshore platforms

The accurate prediction of extreme excursion and mooring force of floating offshore structures due to multi-variete environmental conditions which requires the joint probability analysis of environmental conditions for the worst case situation is still impractical as the processing of large amount of met-ocean data is required. On the other hand, the simplified multiple design criteria (e.g. the N-year wave with associated winds and currents) recommended by API known as traditional method does lead neither to the N-year platform response nor to the N-year mooring force. Therefore, in order to reduce the level of conservatism as well as uncertainties involved in the traditional method the response-based method can be used as a reliable alternative approach. In this paper this method is described. In order to perform the calculations faster using large databases of sea states, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is designed and employed. In the paper the response-based method is applied to a 200,000 tdw FPSO and the results are discussed.     

海底柱状沉积物超声测量

运用RS-ST01C超声测试仪,对32个海底沉积物柱状样品进行了现场超声波声学测量,并作了声速剖面初步分析,结果表明,样品及其固定方法、耦合剂、t0值、生物含量、取样效果和频率等因素对测量的结果均有一定影响,其中,样品及其固定方法、t0值、生物含量以及取样效果对声速测量的结果影响较大,而耦合剂和频率等因素对其影响较小。     

黄、东海海域水团发育对底质沉积物分布的影响

通过对黄、东海海域底质沉积物中的细粒级粘土矿物组合特征和全粒级碳酸盐含量分析、对比上覆水团和悬浮体资料，探讨研究区水团发育消长对底质沉积物分布的影响作用。结果表明研究区可以划分为长江冲淡水影响的长江型物质沉积区；黄海水影响的黄河型物质沉积区和黑潮水以及东海次表层水影响的残留型物质沉积区。而水团发育消长可直接影响下伏底质的分布特征。黄河型物质沉积区与残留型物质沉积区的分界相应于黄海冷水向东南扩展与黑潮次中层混合水向陆架爬升互为消长的长期综合平衡位置，而黄海冷水向东南的扩展范围代表着黄河物质在陆架向东南扩展沉积的最大范围．     

葫芦岛地区道路网络的建立

本文针对城市交通道路网的特点,根据现实的交通网络,对葫芦岛地区道路网络进行建立及分析。利用ArcGIS中的Geodatabase构建路网数据库,利用节点一弧段数据结构构建空间网络拓扑关系,生成点一弧矢量数据模型表示的道路网络。并实现四种网络分析功能:最佳路径分析、空间查询、追踪分析和缓冲区分析。     

Developing a SPASE Query Language

The advent of the Virtual Observatory has begun an evolution in the space physics data environment. A number of nascent and discipline specific Virtual Observatories have started to emerge with an emphasis on data search and retrieval. As this new data environment takes shape an emphasis will be placed on interdisciplinary communication in attempts to address large scale and global problems. To this end we formulate the development of a query language to facilitate Virtual Observatory to Virtual Observatory communication. Furthermore, we outline the goals of such a language, how it would work and how existing community efforts can be leveraged to speed the development of this query language.

Technologies of agency and performance: Tasmania Together and the constitution of harmonious island identity

Baldacchino [Baldacchino, G., 2002. Jurisdictional self-reliance for small island territories: considering the partition of Cyprus, The Round Table, 365, 349-360] has argued that the ‘troika’ of smallness, insularity and peripherality may incline island peoples (rather more than mainlanders?) to question the effects of economic globalization and be especially disposed to innovative approaches to development. He views jurisdictional capacity as integral to that task. Much of the literature on such issues relates to island nations, but this work focuses on Australia’s smallest and only island state of Tasmania, and thus on a sub-national jurisdiction. In what follows I explore the effects of an attempt to enrol Tasmanians in the creation and stabilization of a ‘2020 vision’ meant to be global in its reach, to focus on the particular strengths of the island state, and be innovative in advancing sustainable development. Known as Tasmania Together, the 20-year strategic vision outlines diverse economic, social and environmental goals assembled over two years via widespread consultations with the island’s communities of place and interest. For a time Tasmania Together generated significant debate about what it means to be an island people, and whether and to what extent Tasmanians’ future will be secured through economic globalization or localized endeavours premised on sustainability principles. Important to Tasmanians as well as to island studies, these rhetorics of social and spatial engagement also have salience beyond the borders of the island state, highlighting larger questions about the technologies of governmentality, agency and the performance of identity.     

Application of back-propagation networks in debris flow prediction

Debris flows have caused serious loss of human lives and a lot of damage to properties in Taiwan over the past decades. Moreover, debris flows have brought massive mud causing water pollution in reservoirs and resulted in water shortage for daily life locally and affected agricultural irrigation and industrial usages seriously. A number of methods for prediction of debris flows have been studied. However, the successful prediction ratio of debris flows cannot always maintain a stable and reliable level. The objective of this study is to present a stable and reliable analytical model for occurrence predictions of debris flows. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model that was constructed by seven significant factors using back-propagation (BP) algorithm. These seven factors include (1) length of creek, (2) average slope, (3) effective watershed area, (4) shape coefficient, (5) median size of soil grain, (6) effective cumulative rainfall, and (7) effective rainfall intensity. A total of 178 potential cases of debris flows collected in eastern Taiwan were fed into the ANN model for training and testing. The average ratio of successful prediction reaching 93.82% demonstrates that the presented ANN model with seven significant factors can provide a stable and reliable result for the prediction of debris flows in hazard mitigation and guarding systems.     

Modeling the cyclic swelling pressure of mudrock using artificial neural networks

The stochastic nature of the cyclic swelling behavior of mudrock and its dependence on a large number of interdependent parameters was modeled using Time Delay Neural Networks (TDNNs). This method has facilitated predicting cyclic swelling pressure with an acceptable level of accuracy where developing a general mathematical model is almost impossible. A number of total pressure cells between shotcrete and concrete walls of the powerhouse cavern at Masjed–Soleiman Hydroelectric Powerhouse Project, South of Iran, where mudrock outcrops, confirmed a cyclic swelling pressure on the lining since 1999. In several locations, small cracks are generated which has raised doubts about long term stability of the powerhouse structure. This necessitated a study for predicting future swelling pressure. Considering the complexity of the interdependent parameters in this problem, TDNNs proved to be a powerful tool. The results of this modeling are presented in this paper.     

Managing sustainable farmed landscape through 'alternative' food networks: a case study from Italy

This paper focuses on a case study of an 'alternative' food network based in the Abruzzo National Park, Italy, to explore how ideas of sustainable farmland management can be expressed through broader understandings of developing networks of care concerned with local economies and societies, high-quality specialist food products, particular 'traditional' farming practices and livestock breeds, as well as the ecology of a farmed landscape. The scheme allows customers, internationally as well as in Italy, to 'adopt' a milking sheep on a large mountain farm. In return, adopters are sent food products from the farm. The adoption scheme is inter-twined with an agri-tourism project which provides accommodation, runs a restaurant and engages in educational activities. The scheme is the result of the individual initiative of its founder, and is associated with a strongly expressed ethical position concerning the value of sustaining valued local rural landscapes and lifestyles, and the importance of 'reconnecting' urban dwellers with rural areas, farming and 'quality' food production. Yet the localness of the scheme is sustained through wider national and international networks: volunteer and paid workers are drawn from several European countries, funding has been acquired from the EU LEADER programme, and internet and transport technologies are essential in connecting with and supplying an international customer base. The broader economy of care instanced in this case study draws attention to a need to develop strategies for sustainable farmland management constructed around wider programmes of social, economic and cultural, as well as environmental, concern.