Modeling long term lake variations by physically based stochastic dynamic models

Several physically based stochastic dynamic models (SDM) are described including year-to-year variations of water volume in terminal and non-terminal lakes, streamflow of lake-fed rivers, and salinity of an inland sea (the Sea of Azov). All of these models are based upon the SDM of water volume of terminal lakes developed by Kritzky and Menkel in 1946 in co-operation with Kolomogorov. Explicit formulae are derived for second order statistical moments of the output processes, including variance, correlation function, spectra, etc., under the assumption that the forcing functions from stationary random sequences. The least-squares prediction problem is solved for both stationary and non-stationary cases. Some of the processes are shown to possess high statistical predictability. Actual predictions are compared with independent observations. Problems for further study are stated.     

Continental size,eustasy and sediment yield

Sediment yield from modern continental blocks is a function of the area (dissolved load) and hypsometry (mechanical load) of the blocks. Hypsographic curves for modern continental blocks show that the change in the percentage area flooded for any change in eustatic sea level depends on the size of the block and the absolute sea level. This allows predictions of changes in sediment yield around different sized blocks for any given eustatic change. The range in size of continental blocks is such that, for any given sea level change, the blocks will show different percentage changes in yield. Data from modern continental blocks are compared with theoretical results. Assuming that the rules governing modern hypsometries applied in the past, and a constant volume of continental crust, it is possible to estimate the hypsographic curves of former continental blocks. The implications of suggested past continental configurations and sea levels for sediment yield are discussed.     

Late Quaternary record of sea-level changes in the Antarctic

The Late Quaternary sediment sequence of the continental margin in the eastern Weddell Sea is well suited for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. Two cores from the upper slope, which contain the sedimentary record of the last 300 ky, have been sedimentologically investigated. Age models are based on lithostratigraphy and are correlated with the stable isotope record. As a result of a detailed analysis of the clay mineral composition, grain size distributions and structures, this sedimentary record provides the first marine evidence that the Antarctic ice sheet extended to the shelf edge during the last glacial.The variations in volume and size of the ice sheet were also simulated in numerical models. Changes in accumulation rate and ice temperature are of some importance, but the model revealed that fluctuations are primarily driven by changes in eustatic sea-level and that the ice edge extended to the shelf edge during the last glacial maximum. This causal relationship implies that the maximum ice extension strongly depends on the magnitude and duration of the sea-level depression during a glacial period. The results of the sedimentological investigations and of the numerical models show that the Antarctic ice sheet follows glacial events in the northern hemisphere by teleconnections of sea level. Correspondence to: H. Grobe     

中国近海海面地形的计算与研究

介绍了海面地形的研究现状,并根据几何水准求得了中国近海的海平面倾斜及其精度.给出应用水文资料计算中国近海海面地形的公式及其计算结果.探讨了由球函数模型计算中国近海海面地形的理论和方法,并对不同方法进行了比较,得出了一些有益的结论.     

Seismic activity related to the 1991 eruption of Colima Volcano,Mexico

Ten years after the last effusive eruption and at least 15 years of seismic quiescence, volcanic seismic activity started at Colima volcano on 14 February 1991, with a seismic crisis which reached counts of more than 100 per day and showed a diversity of earthquake types. Four other distinct seismic crises followed, before a mild effusive eruption in April 1991. The second crisis preceded the extrusion of an andesitic scoriaceous lava lobe, first reported on 1 March; during this crisis an interesting temporary concentration of seismic foci below the crater was observed shortly before the extrusion was detected. The third crisis was constituted by shallow seismicity, featuring possible mild degassing explosion-induced activity in the form of hiccups (episodes of simple wavelets that repeat with diminishing amplitude), and accompanied by increased fumarolic activity. The growth of the new lava dome was accompanied by changing seismicity. On 16 April during the fifth crisis which consisted of some relatively large, shallow, volcanic earthquakes and numerous avalanches of older dome material, part of the newly extruded dome, which had grown towards the edge of the old dome, collapsed, producing the largest avalanches and ash flows. Afterwards, block lava began to flow slowly along the SW flank of the volcano, generating frequent small incandescent avalanches. The seismicity associated with the stages of this eruptive activity shows some interesting features: most earthquake foci were located north of the summit, some of them relatively deep (7–11 km below the summit level), underneath the saddle between the Colima and the older Nevado volcanoes. An apparently seismic quiet region appears between 4 and 7 km below the summit level. In June, harmonic tremors were detected for the first time, but no changes in the eruptive activity could be correlated with them. After June, the seismicity decreasing trend was established, and the effusive activity stopped on September 1991.     

华南变质基底的组成、边界与构造演化（研究综述）

本文据作者调查并综合有关资料，就华南变质基底的组成结构、边界性质、构造型式及演化过程作了较全面阐述；就板溪群是否为构造混杂岩，及其所代表的地质体性质作了深入分析和讨论，作者认为：华南可能存在晚太古－早元古统一变质基底，中元古末至印支期为板块活动期，印支期后，由于受太平洋板块作用影响而进入新的构造活动期。     

南北两极海冰的涛动关系

本文将南极海冰分为４个区：ＳＰＩ１（０°－１２０°Ｅ），东南极海冰；ＳＰＩ２（１２０°Ｅ－１２０°Ｗ），以罗斯海为主体的海冰区；ＳＰＩ３（１２０°Ｗ－０°），以威德尔海为主体的海冰区；ＳＰＩ４，全南极海冰区。北极海冰区分为３个区：ＮＰＩ１（９０°Ｅ－１８０°－９０°Ｗ），太平洋侧冰区；ＮＰＩ２（９０°Ｗ－０°－９０°Ｅ），大西洋侧冰区；ＮＰＩ３，全北极冰区。本文使用了ＷＤＣ－Ａ的ＳＩＧＲＩＤ海冰资料，以分析南极和北极各冰区之间的相互关系。发现两极各冰区之间存在着非常复杂的相互作用。其中最突出的特征是：两极海冰之间相互作用的振源是ＮＰＩ２。ＳＰＩ３是影响南极海冰的正反馈中心。ＳＰＩ２则是南北两极海冰的负反馈中心。ＮＰＩ２，ＳＰＩ３和ＳＰＩ２之间的相互作用最强，形成涛动关系。这种涛动关系不是同时期的，而是有较长的滞后时间差。两极海冰形成周期变化，其周期为５－６年，正与ＮＰＩ２和ＳＰＩ３自身变化周期一致。另外还有更长的循环周期９－１１年     

“分水岭迁移与河流袭夺”客观存在

分水岭迁移的结果必然会引起河流的袭夺，这是水系演变中的客观规律。分水岭之所以会发生迁移，关键在于分水岭两侧分别存在着高位河流与低位河流，这就使得分水岭两侧的侵蚀能量有差异。分水岭的被切穿主要是由于低位河流溯源侵蚀较强，迫使分水岭向高位河流的一例移动，并最终袭夺高位河流。     

土地类型系列制图的几个理论问题

实际存在的不同尺度地域分异规律是土地类型系列制图的客观基础。多种尺度制图构成的土地类型系列制图可以全面揭示区域土地类型的形成因素、分布规律和空间结构特征,也为不同层次土地规划管理之间的相互补充、协调提供了重要基础。     

玻璃钢作地面沉降监测标体的可行性研究

玻璃钢具有质量轻、强度高、耐腐蚀等特性,可作为达到特定工程目的的成型材料。本文通过论证,认为在地面沉降监测工程中为了更准确灵敏地反映地下岩土的变形,选用轻质高强度的玻璃钢作引测标体是可行的。此外,由于玻璃钢成本低,因此,还可使中小城市开展地面沉降监测时减少基础性投入。