Bayesian modelling the retreat of the Irish Sea Ice Stream

We present an 8000‐year history spanning 650 km of ice margin retreat for the largest marine‐terminating ice stream draining the former British–Irish Ice Sheet. Bayesian modelling of the geochronological data shows the ISIS expanded 34.0–25.3 ka, accelerating into the Celtic Sea to reach maximum limits 25.3–24.5 ka before a collapse with rapid marginal retreat to the northern Irish Sea Basin (ISB). This retreat was rapid and driven by climatic warming, sea‐level rise, mega‐tidal amplitudes and reactivation of meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The retreat, though rapid, is uneven, with the stepped retreat pattern possibly a function of the passage of the ice stream between normal and adverse ice bed gradients and changing ice stream geometry. Initially, wide calving margins and adverse slopes encouraged rapid retreat (～550 m a^?1) that slowed (～100 m a^?1) at the topographic constriction and bathymetric high between southern Ireland and Wales before rates increased (～200 m a^?1) across adverse bed slopes and wider and deeper basin configuration in the northern ISB. These data point to the importance of the ice bed slope and lateral extent in predicting the longer‐term (>1000 a) patterns and rates of ice‐marginal retreat during phases of rapid collapse, which has implications for the modelling of projected rapid retreat of present‐day ice streams. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An iterative pressure‐stabilized fractional step algorithm in saturated soil dynamics

This paper presents an iterative, incremental pressure‐stabilized fractional step algorithm for coupled hydro‐mechanical problems with mixed formulations of the displacement–pressure ( u –p) model in saturated soil dynamics that allows the use of finite elements with equal low order of interpolation approximation of u and p. In comparison with the original fractional step algorithm, the distinct features of the proposed algorithm lie in its enhanced stability owing to the introduction of both an iteration procedure and a finite increment calculus (FIC) process into the algorithm. The introduction of the iterative procedure makes the velocity term satisfy the momentum conservation equation in an implicit sense and allows much larger time step sizes to be used than those limited in existing explicit and semi‐implicit versions of the algorithm. The introduction of the FIC process removes the dependence of the stability of the proposed algorithm on the time step size, as a result it allows to using the incremental version of the algorithm and evades the minimum time step size requirement presented in the existing versions of the fractional step algorithm that restricts the application of the algorithm to saturated soil dynamics problems with high frequencies. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and improved performance of the proposed iterative pressure‐stabilized fractional step algorithm. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstructing Holocene palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography in Ìsafjarðardjúp,northwest Iceland,from two fjord records overprinted by relative sea‐level and local hydrographic changes

We reconstruct palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography of the Ísafjarðardjúp fjord system from two cores – one from the inner fjord and one near the fjord mouth – while separating the potential overprinting of relative sea‐level (RSL) and local fjord hydrographic changes on these records. The inner fjord core (B997‐339) reflects local fjord hydrography; the outer fjord core (MD99‐2266) reflects the regional oceanic signal. Glacial marine conditions ended at ca. 10 200 cal. a BP, indicated by both ice‐rafted debris records. The other proxy records show spatial and temporal variability within the fjord system. At the inner fjord site (B997‐339) foraminiferal assemblages and the δ¹⁸O record indicate lowered RSL between ca. 10 600 and 8900 cal. a BP and document the onset of fjord water overturning at ca. 8900 cal. a BP, which obscured the climate record. At the fjord mouth (MD99‐2266) mass accumulation rates suggest lowered RSL between ca. 10 200 and 5500 cal. a BP and local freshwater and/or reduced salinities of the Irminger Current water masses affected the δ¹⁸O signal between ca. 10 200 and 7900 cal. a BP. At MD99‐2266, foraminiferal fauna record the Holocene Thermal Maximum between ca. 8000 and 5700 cal. a BP and the onset of modern oceanic circulation at ca. 7000 cal. a BP. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lake Ladoga ice phenology: Mean condition and extremes during the last 65 years

Winter conditions play an important role for the largest lake in Europe—Lake Ladoga. The ice cover lasts for 171 ± 3 days on average from the early November until the mid‐May. We investigated the ice regime of Lake Ladoga using a constructed ice database of aircraft surveys and satellite images. More than 1250 surveys of the lake's ice cover from 1943 to 2010 were collected and analysed to determine mean and extreme ice conditions for winters of different types of severity. The time series of ice cover percentage over the lake was plotted. On average, 18 observational ice charts were made every winter. Individual ice phenology records show considerable year‐to‐year variation. For this reason, records typically have been combined and analysed as groups (categories). Extremely cold winters were determined as winters with complete ice cover that lasts more than three months which is approximately 90% quartiles from all winters with complete ice cover. The lake surface was completely covered with ice for more than three months during 5 seasons. Extremely warm winters when the maximum ice cover was less than 70% of the lake area occurred during 5 seasons as well. A basic relationship between the winter severity as winter maximum of accumulated freezing degree‐days (AFDD) and the earlier derived Relative Ice Cover Index (RICI) was established. We have used teleconnection indices such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the period from October to May for estimation of different types of Lake Ladoga's ice conditions. The AO index in winter months and local winter maximum of AFDD explained much of the interannual variation in ice cover. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of highly permeable layer on hydraulic system in a coastal aquifer

This study is aimed to understand the hydraulic mechanism of coastal aquifer systems that include highly permeable layers (HPLs). These hydrologic conditions can be found in many volcanic islands that are composed of a series of lava flows discharged into sea or other standing body of water. In the first part, we developed a numerical model based on the geologic and hydrologic data obtained from the eastern Jeju Island, Korea, of which the aquifer contains clinker and hyaloclastite layers. The simulation results reproduced spatial location of fresh‐saline water interface, especially the abrupt decline of interface at the inland part and the thickness variation of transition zone along the cross‐section observed at the eastern Jeju coastal aquifer. We were able to find out that these phenomena are strongly related to the presence of the HPL. In the second part, quantitative analyses were conducted with the use of hypothetical models in order to understand the dynamic characteristics of coastal system that includes HPLs. A series of sensitivity studies were conducted to assess the effect of the horizontal length and vertical depth of HPL on the spatial location of the interface toe and the configuration of transition zone. Various case studies have shown that the seawater intruded into the inland more as the horizontal length of HPL was increased and its vertical depth was decreased. In other simulations including two HPLs, the vertical distance between these two HPLs primarily controlled the flow regime, flux variations, and the configuration of the transition zone. Finally, we performed simulations to evaluate the effect of a rising sea‐level. This study provides more understanding of how the presence of HPL controls the seawater intrusion processes, and the spatial configurations of fresh‐saline water interface at coastal aquifers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Quaternary tephra layers around Raoul and Macauley Islands,Kermadec Arc: implications for volcanic sources,explosive volcanism and tephrochronology

A suite of deep‐sea cores were collected along transects up to 100 km across the fore‐arc and back‐arc regions of the predominantly submarine Kermadec arc near Raoul and Macauley islands, southwest Pacific. The cores reveal a macroscopic tephra record extending back >50 ka. This is a significant addition to the dated record of volcanism, previously restricted to fragmented late Holocene records exposed on the two islands. The 27 macroscopic tephra layers display a wide compositional diversity in glass (～50–78 wt% SiO₂). Many tephra layers comprise silicic shards with a subordinate mafic shard population. This could arise from magma mingling and may reflect mafic triggering of the silicic eruptions. Broadly, the glass compositions can be distinguished on diverging high‐K and low‐K trends, most likely arising from different source volcanoes. This distinction is also reflected in the tephra records exposed on Raoul (low‐K) and Macauley (high‐K) islands, the likely source areas. Heterogeneous tephra comprising shards of both high‐ and low‐K affinity, silicic and mafic compositions, and more homogeneous tephra with subordinate outlier shard compositions, are best explained by post‐depositional mixing of separate eruption deposits or contemporaneous eruptions. Evidently, the slow sedimentation rates of the calcareous oozes (～10¹–10² mm ka^?1) were insufficient to adequately separate and preserve closely spaced eruption deposits. This exemplifies the difficulty in assessing eruption frequencies and magmatic trends, and erecting a tephrostratigraphy, using geochemical fingerprinting in such environments. Despite these difficulties, the ca. 5.7 ka Sandy Bay Tephra erupted from Macauley Island can be correlated over a distance of >100 km, extending east and west of the island, showing that the mostly submerged volcanoes are capable of wide tephra dispersal. Hence there is potential for developing chronostratigraphies for the southwest Pacific beyond the region covered by the extensive rhyolite marker beds from the Taupo Volcanic Zone. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal rainfall–runoff relationships in a lowland forested watershed in the southeastern USA

Hydrological processes of lowland watersheds of the southern USA are not well understood compared to a hilly landscape due to their unique topography, soil compositions, and climate. This study describes the seasonal relationships between rainfall patterns and runoff (sum of storm flow and base flow) using 13 years (1964–1976) of rainfall and stream flow data for a low‐gradient, third‐order forested watershed. It was hypothesized that runoff–rainfall ratios (R/P) are smaller during the dry periods (summer and fall) and greater during the wet periods (winter and spring). We found a large seasonal variability in event R/P potentially due to differences in forest evapotranspiration that affected seasonal soil moisture conditions. Linear regression analysis results revealed a significant relationship between rainfall and runoff for wet (r² = 0·68; p < 0·01) and dry (r² = 0·19; p = 0·02) periods. Rainfall‐runoff relationships based on a 5‐day antecedent precipitation index (API) showed significant (r² = 0·39; p < 0·01) correspondence for wet but not (r² = 0·02; p = 0·56) for dry conditions. The same was true for rainfall‐runoff relationships based on 30‐day API (r² = 0·39; p < 0·01 for wet and r² = 0·00; p = 0·79 for dry). Stepwise regression analyses suggested that runoff was controlled mainly by rainfall amount and initial soil moisture conditions as represented by the initial flow rate of a storm event. Mean event R/P were higher for the wet period (R/P = 0·33), and the wet antecedent soil moisture condition based on 5‐day (R/P = 0·25) and 30‐day (R/P = 0·26) prior API than those for the dry period conditions. This study suggests that soil water status, i.e. antecedent soil moisture and groundwater table level, is important besides the rainfall to seasonal runoff generation in the coastal plain region with shallow soil argillic horizons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SCATTERING PHASE MATRICES OF ICE CRYSTALS WITH HEXAGONAL PRISM AND TRIANGULAR PYRAMID FORM—A VECTOR RAY TRACING METHOD

The work presented previously by the authors(Cai and Liou,1982)has been extended in this paper.By making use of our improved model the calculations on scattering phase matrices of hexagonal prismice crystals(HPIC)have been conducted for monodisperse and polydisperse systems.Compared with themodel of Cai and Liou,the required computational quantity is decreased by about two orders of magni-tude and the errors of results are less for the new model.Meanwhile,the scattering phase matrices of triangularpyramid ice crystals(TPIC)are also computed in the paper,and the comparison between the scatterings of thetwo forms of ice crystals is performed.     

IAG2001年科学大会与大地测量学的最新进展

扼要报导了国际大地测量学术界的一次重要会议－IAG2001年科学大会。根据会议的学术报告，对坐标系统的统一与协调，全球重力场研究，导航卫星的应用，地壳形变与地球动力学等方面的研究进展作了详细介绍。