水泥搅拌桩与锚杆组合支护结构的力学参数研究

水泥搅拌桩--锚杆组合支护结构是一种新型的组合支护结构,笔者采用有限元方法进行各相关力学参数研究,分析了该组合支护结构的受力特性及变形性态.通过计算结果与实测数据的比较,表明本文所得结论对该组合支护结构的应用有一定的指导价值.     

地质灾害危险性评估及其半定量分析法在罗家寨气田内部集输工程中的应用

罗家寨气田内部集输工程地质灾害危险性评估项目属于一级评估项目，我们在该项目中运用了GPS、遥感数字化正射影像地图等新技术、新方法，同时采用了灾损率（Zs）法、风险区划法半定量的综合评估方法，通过系统的整理第一手资料和综合分析，对本地区地质灾害危险性进行现状评估、预测评估和综合评估，评价工程建设用地适宜性并提出地质灾害的防治措施建议。     

古生代与三叠纪中国各陆块在全球古大陆再造中的位置与运动学特征

在尊重比较可靠的、测试精度较高的地块古地磁数据,重视生物古地理与地质构造演化史的相似性和协调性等原则的基础上,笔者编制了中国大陆及邻区各陆块古生代和三叠纪的古地磁数据表,并采用类似的比例尺,将中国各陆块放到相应的全球古大陆复原图上去。由此可以清晰地看出,在古生代早期全球各大陆的主要部分都位于赤道附近及南半球,大致表现为沿纬度、呈东西向排列的特征,中国及邻区的小陆块群在古生代始终都处在劳伦大陆、西伯利亚与冈瓦纳大陆之间;随着西伯利亚大陆的快速北移,在劳伦大陆与冈瓦纳大陆的西部地区发生南北向拼合,亚皮特斯洋和里克洋的消亡,到古生代晚期形成统一的泛大陆;而冈瓦纳大陆的东部(澳大利亚和印度等）则逐渐向南移动、离散,地壳张开,构成古特提斯洋;中国及邻区的小陆块群则一直处在古特提斯洋中,保持离散状态,总体上缓慢地向北运移,并逐渐转为近南北向的排列方式,石炭纪到三叠纪才在天山-兴安岭、昆仑山、秦岭-大别、金沙江和绍兴-十万大山等地段发生一系列局部性的陆陆碰撞,使中国大陆地块的大部分逐渐并入欧亚大陆。     

祁连山区多年冻土空间分布模拟

祁连山区位于青藏高原东北边缘,是亚洲水塔重要的组成部分,多年冻土的变化对生态系统和水资源平衡有着重要影响。基于青藏高原第二次综合科学考察、道路勘察钻孔点以及前人所获得的多年冻土下界资料,回归得出祁连山区多年冻土下界统计模型,借助ArcGIS平台在DEM数据的支持下,模拟出祁连山区多年冻土空间分布图。结果表明：祁连山区多年冻土分布的下界具有良好的地带性规律,表现为随经纬度增加而降低的规律;祁连山区多年冻土在空间分布上呈现出以哈拉湖为中心向四周扩散的分布格局;祁连山区总面积约为16.90×10⁴ km²,其中多年冻土面积约为8.03×10⁴ km²,占总面积约47.51%。多年冻土区与季节冻土区之间存在着有不连续多年冻土分布的过渡区,过渡区面积约1.43×10⁴ km²,占总面积约8.46%。     

Time independent seismic hazard analysis in Alborz and surrounding area

The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability is high.     

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

等双轴拉应变对无纺土工织物孔径变化的影响

无纺土工织物作为一种反滤材料,在工程中常受土体作用产生平面双轴拉应变,导致织物孔径变化。基于无纺织物空间网络孔径模型,改进Rawal公式中织物孔径结构总层数的算法,并提出等双轴拉伸下织物孔径分布曲线的解析解。利用自主研发的双轴拉伸仪,将两种针刺无纺织物等双轴拉伸至应变为3%、5%、10%,采用应变控制下的干筛法,进行织物孔径分布曲线测试。将解析解与试验结果进行对比分析,解析解孔径值偏大,所得解析曲线与测试曲线对于较薄织物吻合更好。研究结果表明,随着双轴拉应变的增加,无纺织物孔径增大,其特征孔径O95、O50、O30都近似与拉伸应变呈线性变化关系。     

Mean bulk densities of samples of dry atmospheric aerosol particles: A summary of measured data

Mean bulk densities of various samples of dry atmospheric aerosol particles sampled at different sites and during different seasons and weather situations range between 1.8 and more than 3 gm cm³.     

A spectrum of the acoustic-gravity waves associated with Auroral electro-jet

This model concerns the analysis of Aurora initiated travelling pressure waves in an isothermal atmosphere. Electro-dynamic Lorentz Force associated with auroral electric current density during the periods of geomagnetic activity is invoked as a possible exciting source.The dispersion phenomena in auroral induced acoustic gravity modes in the earth's atmosphere are examined and various cut-off frequencies analysed.Finally, an attempt is made to obtain a far field representation of the forced oscillations by means of Green's Function technique. Therefrom, the spectral amplitudes of the ground-level oscillations are computed. Incorporating various scaling factors, it is deduced that these amplitude components are in reasonable agreement with the results of recent measurements.     

唐山7.8级地震前的震中迁移与远台前兆的关系

以震中迁移始发点的前兆讨论了唐山7.8级地震震中位置的预测,并以此为例分析了汶川8级地震和芦山7级地震的前兆问题。另外,从震中迁移延长线上的前兆来讨论了唐山大震的发生时间。