Input data resolution‐induced uncertainty in watershed modelling

The temporal‐spatial resolution of input data‐induced uncertainty in a watershed‐based water quality model, Hydrologic Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF), is investigated in this study. The temporal resolution‐induced uncertainty is described using the coefficient of variation (CV). The CV is found to decrease with decreasing temporal resolution and follow a log‐normal relation with time interval for temperature data while it exhibits a power‐law relation for rainfall data. The temporal‐scale uncertainties in the temperature and rainfall data follow a general extreme value distribution and a Weibull distribution, respectively. The Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) is employed to represent the spatial resolution induced uncertainty. The spatial resolution uncertainty in the dissolved oxygen and nitrate‐nitrogen concentrations simulated using HSPF is observed to follow a general extreme value distribution and a log‐normal distribution, respectively. The probability density functions (PDF) provide new insights into the effect of temporal‐scale and spatial resolution of input data on uncertainties involved in watershed modelling and total maximum daily load calculations. This study exhibits non‐symmetric distributions of uncertainty in water quality modelling, which simplify weather and water quality monitoring and reducing the cost involved in flow and water quality monitoring. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development and application of a catchment scale diffuse nitrate modelling tool

Water pollution from diffuse sources is a problem of increasing concern. Efforts to control diffuse pollution have been confined mainly to agricultural land and forests. Little attention has been paid to sources of diffuse pollution from urban areas. A diffuse nitrate modelling tool (DNMT) has been developed for modelling the fate of nitrate in urban areas. This tool works at the catchment scale and has a modular structure that consists of three components: the hydrological module, the nitrogen cycle module and the nitrate transport module. The hydrological model describes the possible flow pathways. The nitrogen cycle model accounts for the mass balance of nitrate and calculates the amount of nitrate for potential loss. The nitrate transport module simulates the movement of nitrate within and from the soil to the receiving water. This paper demonstrates the development of the tool and its application in the White Cart Water catchment. This implementation of the tool shows that it has a good capability for simulating the fate of nitrate in urban catchments. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

河西地区重力动态变化的二维离散小波多尺度分解

采用二维离散小波的多尺度分解技术，对1994～1995年和2002～2003年的河西地区重力动态变化进行分解，提取该地区不同层次的重力动态变化异常，结果反映了不同深度在一定尺度意义上的介质密度的动态变化分布。     

An approach to catchment‐scale groundwater nitrate risk assessment from diffuse agricultural sources: a case study in the Upper Bann,Northern Ireland

DRASTIC has drawbacks in groundwater risk assessment that are important in guiding activities to prevention agricultural diffuse groundwater pollution. This paper presents an improved and GIS‐based D‐DRASTIC approach for groundwater nitrate risk assessment from diffuse agricultural sources based on DRASTIC. D‐DRASTIC considers the risk concept, nitrate loading, pollutant transport with runoff, depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone media, and the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. D‐DRASTIC was developed within an ArcGIS environment and applied to the Upper Bann Catchment, Northern Ireland as a case study. D‐DRASTIC shows that ‘very high’ and ‘high’ zones of groundwater nitrate risk occupy 5% and 11% of the case study area, respectively. When considering groundwater pollution sources and pathways, the results using D‐DRASTIC are helpful in guiding the activities of groundwater pollution prevention at the catchment scale in the context of better implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impact of the hydraulic properties of a crusted soil on overland flow modelling at the field scale

Soil surface crusts are widely reported to favour Hortonian runoff, but are not explicitly represented in most rainfall‐runoff models. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of soil surface crusts on infiltration and runoff modelling at two spatial scales, i.e. the local scale and the plot scale. At the local scale, two separate single ring infiltration experiments are undertaken. The first is performed on the undisturbed soil, whereas the second is done after removal of the soil surface crust. The HYDRUS 2D two‐dimensional vertical infiltration model is then used in an inverse modelling approach, first to estimate the soil hydraulic properties of the crust and the subsoil, and then the effective hydraulic properties of the soil represented as a single uniform layer. The results show that the crust hydraulic conductivity is 10 times lower than that of the subsoil, thus illustrating the limiting role the crust has on infiltration. Moving up to the plot scale, a rainfall‐runoff model coupling the Richards equation to a transfer function is used to simulate Hortonian overland flow hydrographs. The previously calculated hydraulic properties are used, and a comparison is undertaken between a single‐layer and a double‐layer representation of the crusted soil. The results of the rainfall‐runoff model show that the soil hydraulic properties calculated at the local scale give acceptable results when used to model runoff at the plot scale directly, without any numerical calibration. Also, at the plot scale, no clear improvement of the results can be seen when using a double‐layer representation of the soil in comparison with a single homogeneous layer. This is due to the hydrological characteristics of Hortonian runoff, which is triggered by a rainfall intensity exceeding the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil surface. Consequently, the rainfall‐runoff model is more sensitive to rainfall than to the subsoil's hydrodynamic properties. Therefore, the use of a double‐layer soil model to represent runoff on a crusted soil does not seem necessary, as the increase of precision in the soil discretization is not justified by a better performance of the model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Globular clusters and the Mira period–luminosity relation

A globular cluster distance scale based on Hipparcos parallaxes of subdwarfs has been used to derive estimates of M _K for cluster Miras, including one in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) globular cluster NGC 121. These lead to a zero-point of the Mira infrared period–luminosity (PL) relation, PL( K ), in good agreement with that derived from Hipparcos parallaxes of nearby field Miras. The mean of these two estimates together with data on LMC Miras yields a Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) distance modulus of     in evident agreement with a metallicity-corrected Cepheid modulus     .
The use of luminous asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars as extragalactic population indicators is also discussed.     

Systematic uncertainties in gravitational lensing models: a semi-analytical study of PG1115+080

While the Hubble constant can be derived from observable time delays between images of lensed quasars, the result is often highly sensitive to assumptions and systematic uncertainties in the lensing model. Unlike most previous authors, we put minimal restrictions on the radial profile of the lens and allow for non-elliptical lens potentials. We explore these effects using a broad class of models with a lens potential     which has an unrestricted radial profile but self-similar iso-potential contours defined by     For these potentials, the lens equations can be solved semi-analytically. The axis ratio and position angle of the lens can be determined from the image positions of quadruple gravitational lensed systems directly, independent of the radial profile. We give simple equations for estimating the power-law slope of the lens density directly from the image positions and for estimating the time delay ratios. Our method greatly simplifies the numerics for fitting observations and is fast in exploring the model parameter space. As an illustration, we apply the model to PG1115+080. An entire one-parameter sequence of models fits the observations exactly. We show that the measured image positions and time delays do not uniquely determine the Hubble constant.     

A simplified analysis of interface failure under compressive normal stress and monotonic or cyclic shear loading

Interface damage and delamination is usually accompanied by frictional slip at contacting interfaces under compressive normal stress. The present work is concerned with an analysis of progressive interface failure using the cohesive crack model with the critical stress softening and frictional traction present at the contact. Both monotonic and cyclic loadings are considered for anti‐plane shear of an elastic plate bonded to a rigid substrate by means of cohesive interface. An analytical solution can be obtained by neglecting the effect of minor shear stress component. The analysis of progressive delamination process revealed three solution types, namely: short, medium and long plate solutions. The long plate solution was obtained under an assumption of quasistatic progressive growth of the delamination zone. In view of snap back response, the quasistatic deformation process cannot be executed by either traction or displacement control. The states of frictional slip accompanied by shake down or incremental failure are distinguished in the case of cyclic loading, related to load amplitude and structural dimensions. The analysis provides a reference solution for numerical treatment of more complex cases. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

小尺度断裂沿层曲率敏感性研究

沿层曲率作为地震属性的一种,不仅有数学几何意义更有着重要的地质意义。和相干体相比,沿层曲率在油气勘探中常被用于刻画地质构造形态及断裂精细解释,特别是在小尺度断裂发育的地区更为有效。而在实际工作中,有时利用沿层曲率所描述的断裂效果不太明显。为进一步明确对于刻画断裂结果的影响因素及其适用条件,以鄂尔多斯盆地Q区Tj9为研究对象,基于Geoeast软件对该区小尺度断裂系统从选取属性、方位角、频带三个方面展开分析。结果表明：（1）曲率比相干体更适用于刻画较小尺度的断层;（2）平面上从平行断裂的方位观测,断裂识别不清晰;从垂直断裂的方位观测,易于识别;（3）在反射层同相轴较强时,中高频段对断裂识别更清楚;在反射层同相轴较弱时,中频段对断裂识别更清楚。因此可以根据不同属性、不同方位角、不同频带对断裂的敏感程度,用不同的数据体解释小尺度断裂,提高对断层刻画的精度,为复杂油气勘探寻找有利区奠定基础。     

岩体多尺度异质性及其力学行为

异质性是岩体的重要属性之一,从岩体的物质组成到结构特征,再到微宏观力学行为表现,异质性现象普遍存在。本文在梳理已有研究成果的基础上,从岩体的细微观异质性、结构面异质性和宏观异质性3个不同的尺度,对异质性的产生原因、表现特征、力学效应和时空演化规律等进行阐述,并介绍了相关研究方法以及异质性在不同尺度上的差异表现。岩体异质性的研究,是岩体工程地质力学理论体系的延伸,而多尺度的研究方法也成为全面揭示岩体变形破坏机制的一种有效手段。