Variations of Kuroshio geostrophic transport south of Japan estimated from long-term IES observations

Two inverted echo sounders were maintained on coastal and offshore sides of the Kuroshio south of Japan from October 1993 to July 2004. Applying the gravest empirical mode method, we obtained a time series of geostrophic transport. Estimated transports generally agree well with geostrophic transports estimated from hydrography. Their agreement with the hydrographic transports is better than that of transports estimated from satellite altimetry data. The geostrophic transport is expressed as the surface transport per unit depth multiplied by the equivalent depth. The geostrophic transport varies mostly with the surface transport and fractionally with the equivalent depth. Seasonal variation of the geostrophic transport has a minimum in March and a maximum in September, with a range of about one fifth of the total transport.     

船体可靠性评估

为了研究不同结构船体的寿命和使用时可靠度的关系,提出了一种基于试验的可靠度估计方法.针对不同结构船体寿命服从Weibull分布,在无失效数据情形下、置信度至少为γ和寿命为t时,根据船体寿命试验数据,给出了可靠度的单侧置信下限.该方法是在Weibull分布形状参数下限已知的情况下,能将所有的无失效寿命数据进行累加,大大提高了可靠性分析的精度.最后,对钢结构、钛合金结构、铝合金结构的船体,在寿命为t月、置信度至少为γ时,计算了3种结构船体的可靠度单侧置信下限.结果表明该方法易于计算,便于工程应用.     

利用卫星云图资料制作热带气旋预报路径的一种算法

根据台风生成后在云场中移动的环境条件,引入一个环境作用于台风中心的热力梯度力方向,用该热力梯度力方向与当前台风的移动方向相结合,研究台风移动过程的变化规律,寻找一种简易可行的台风路径预报方法．经过多年实践,本文揭示出台风中心未来沿着当前移动方向与环境作用于台风中心的热力方向合成移动的基本规律：当前台风中心移向与前方晴空区中轴线相交时,台风沿着当前移向前进到与阻挡轴线相交点相距4个纬距的位置时便发生偏转,逐渐与阻挡轴线走向趋于一致;若当前台风中心距相交点的距离小于或等于4个纬距时,则从当前位置发生偏转．文中利用以上规律研制出台风移向变化方程和移动轨迹方程．     

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野外型断层活动连续监测系统

介绍野外型断层活动连续监测系统的组成、布设及主要技术指标。     

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基于卫星地面站天线状态预测的任务再规划

集成运行控制系统(Integrated Operation and Control System,IOCS)是极轨气象卫星地面应用系统的重要系统之一,其主要作用之一是规划多卫星地面站接收任务,确保全球资料的完整获取。当卫星地面站某个天线出现异常或不可用时,若仍按原有的任务规划进行数据接收,将直接造成全球资料的不完整,因此需要研究卫星地面站天线状态的预测和相应的任务再规划技术,从而及时发现和处理卫星地面站的天线异常、降低连续多轨数据接收失败风险,最终达到提高极轨气象卫星数据接收成功率的目的。文章设计了基于统计分析的卫星地面站天线状态预测方法,并研究了对后续系统运行改变最小、易实现和结果可复核的任务再规划方法。     

GPS观测数据的建模与仿真

在研究GPS系统的基础上建立了GPS观测数据的仿真模型,编制了相应的计算机程序。仿真模型包括卫星参数模型、动力学模型和观测误差模型。仿真计算表明,卫星参数模型和动力学模型真实地反映了卫星的运动规律;误差模型反映了观测环境对信号传播的影响。同时可以调节和选择仿真模型的参数,仿真选择了地面静态和地面低动态的观测数据,这对于论证GPS定轨、导航算法、设计GPS接收机等有一定的实用价值。