青藏高原及周缘地壳浅层构造应力场量值特征分析

以"中国大陆地壳应力环境基础数据库"中的实测地应力数据为基础,合理筛选出地理空间范围为21°N-40°N,73°N—110°N的近2000条数据,深度范围0~2 km.通过将研究区内实测地应力扣除重力影响,并考虑数据样本数量沿深度分布不均匀的问题,分析构造应力场的作用.重力影响的扣除采用海姆假说与金尼克假说两种模式估算其下限与上限,给出了青藏高原及周缘及青藏地块、南北地震带北、中、南段上构造应力和构造差应力随深度分布的特征和量值范围,结果显示:(1)青藏高原及周缘地区最大水平应力σ_H、最小水平应力σ_h随深度D呈线性增加:σ_H=22.115D+5.761、σ_h=14.893D+3.269;最大水平构造应力σ_T、最小水平构造应力σ_t的量值估算范围分别为4.609σ_T15.522D+4.609、3.121σ_t6.366D+3.121(D0);构造差应力σ_T-σ_t=7.222D+2.492,地表值(D=0 km)为2.5 MPa左右,随深度增加以7.2 MPa.km~(-1)的梯度增大;(2)在测量深度范围内,青藏地块、南北地震带北、中、南段研究区σ_T、σ_t、σ_T-σ_t,随埋深均呈线性增大;D=1 km时,各地块σ_T的统计回归值中最大为30.1 MPa,最小为17.6 MPa,量值由大到小排序依次为:青藏地块、南北带北段、南北带中段、南北带南段;D=1 km时,各地块σ_T-σ_t,的统计回归值中最大为15.8 MPa,最小为8.9 MPa,量值由大到小排序依次为:青藏地块、南北带北段、南北带中段和南北带南段.总体表现为青藏地块强、南北带较弱的基本特征.(3)与南北带相比较,青藏地块地壳在从南向北的挤压作用下呈现出明显的"浅弱深强"特点.     

基于库仑应力变化分析巴颜喀拉地块东端的强震相互关系

本研究基于分层黏弹介质模型,考虑同震位错效应和震后黏滞松弛效应,分析巴颜喀拉地块东端1976年松潘地震序列、2008年汶川8.0级地震、2013年芦山7.0级地震和2017年九寨沟7.0级地震等多次大地震的可能存在的触发关系,计算大地震引起的周边各主要断裂的库仑应力变化.结果显示,1976年松潘地震序列各次地震间关系密切,存在明显的相继触发作用;综合考虑同震和震后效应,汶川8.0级地震对同属于龙门山断裂带的芦山7.0级地震有触发作用,且震后效应影响不可忽略;1976年地震序列,特别是1976年8月16日7.2级地震促进了2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震的发生;汶川地震对九寨沟地震的影响研究中,采用不同的汶川地震同震位错模型,计算结果有差异.综合考虑多次大地震对周边断裂带的影响,龙门山断裂带南段、鲜水河断裂带中南段、平武—青川断裂北段、灌县—安县断裂北段、文县断裂的累积库仑应力增加显著,巴颜喀拉地块东端的东昆仑断裂带东段、迭部—白龙江断裂带西段以及金沙江断裂带库仑应力亦有所增加.综合考虑各重要断裂带已有的大地震危险性分析结果和库仑应力变化计算结果,龙门山断裂带南段、鲜水河断裂带中南段、东昆仑断裂带玛沁—玛曲段和金沙江断裂带的发震紧迫性有所增强,需引起关注.     

九寨沟M_s7.0地震的InSAR观测及发震构造分析

2017年8月8日四川省九寨沟县发生M_s7.0地震.本文基于Sentinel-1 SAR影像,利用InSAR技术获取了此次地震的同震形变场,反演获得同震滑动分布,计算了同震位错对余震分布和周边断层的静态库仑应力变化,并对发震构造进行了分析讨论.结果表明:①InSAR同震形变场显示,九寨沟地震造成地表形变最大量级约为20 cm(雷达视线方向),同震形变存在非对称性分布特征.②同震位错以左旋走滑为主,主要发生在4~16 km深度,最大滑动量约为77 cm,位于9 km深处.反演得到的矩震级为Mw6.46.同震错动未破裂到地表.③大部分余震发生在库仑应力增加区.此次地震增加了震中周边地区一些断裂的库仑应力,如东昆仑断裂带东段、龙日坝断裂、虎牙断裂等.④东昆仑断裂东段的未来地震危险性值得关注.⑤九寨沟地震的发震断层为树正断裂,可能是虎牙断裂的北西延伸隐伏部分,此次地震是巴颜喀拉块体南东向运动受到华南块体的强烈阻挡过程中发生的一次典型构造事件.     

岩石加速破裂行为的物理自相似律

掌握岩石变形破坏过程中体积膨胀点至峰值强度点之间加速破裂行为的演化规律,是实现地质灾害物理预测的关键.本文考虑裂纹张开和闭合两种情况,基于断裂力学建立了三轴应力作用下裂纹扩展临界尺度与等效应力的关系.对微元体破坏概率,分别采用以等效应力表达的Weibull分布函数和裂纹尺度分形函数,通过对比导出了形状参数m与裂纹分布分维D_f关系的表达式.一个有趣的发现是,岩石峰值强度点与体积膨胀点应变比仅与m或D_f有关.对岩石蠕变或准蠕变破坏,合理的m值范围为[1.0,4.0],在此范围内应变比近似为常数1.48,该常数是描述不同尺度岩石加速破裂规律的物理自相似常数.实例分析表明,基于岩石加速破裂规律构建的多锁固段脆性破裂理论,其适用性广,尤其在崩滑和大地震预测领域,具有良好应用前景.此外,本文给出了b值与m值定量关系,以解释b值的物理意义,并探讨将其用于地震预测的可行性.     

有限元模拟弹性位错的等效体力方法

计算地震位错造成的位移场和应力场,对于估计大地震引起的后续地震活动发展趋势十分重要.本文提出在弹性位错问题的有限元模拟中,用等效体力代替位错源,从而在构建几何模型时不用包含断层,却可以处理包含任意复杂断层的问题,极大降低建模的难度.使用此方法,本文计算并讨论了在球形地球模型下2011年日本Tohoku-Oki特大地震对华北地区断层的影响,结果表明此次地震使华北主要断层趋于稳定.     

The use of 3D modeling for the prediction of the seismic demands on the gravity dams

Seismic behavior of gravity dams has long been evaluated using a representative two‐dimensional (2D) system. Formulated for the gravity dams built in wide canyons, the assumption is nevertheless utilized extensively for almost all concrete dams due to the established procedures as well as the expected computational costs of a three‐dimensional model. However, a significant number of roller‐compacted concrete dams, characterized as such systems, do not conform to the basic assumptions of these methods by violating the conditions on canyon dimensions and joint‐spacing/details. Based on the premise that the 2D modeling assumption is overstretched for practical purposes in a variety of settings, the purpose of this study is to critically evaluate the use of 2D modeling for the prediction of the seismic demands on these systems. Using a rigorous soil–structure interaction approach, the difference between the two and three‐dimensional response for gravity dams was investigated first in the frequency domain for a range of canyon widths and foundation to dam moduli ratios. Then, the time domain differences between the crest displacements and the maximum principal stress were obtained using 70 different ground motions in order to show the possible bias introduced into the analysis results due to the modeling approach. The results of the study show that even for relatively wide canyons, the 2D analysis can lead to misleading predictions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Basin‐scale methods for predicting salmonid spawning habitat via grain size and riffle spacing,tested in a California coastal drainage

Basin‐scale predictive geomorphic models for river characteristics, particularly grain size, can aid in salmonid habitat identification. However, these basin‐scale methods are largely untested with actual habitat usage data. Here, we develop and test an approach for predicting grain size distributions from high resolution LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)‐derived topographic data for a 77 km² watershed along the central California Coast. This approach improves on previous efforts in that it predicts the full grain size distribution and incorporates an empirically calibrated shear stress partitioning factor. The predicted grain size distributions are used to calculate the fraction of the bed area movable by spawning fish. We then compare the ‘movable fraction’ with 7 years of observed spawning data. We find that predicted movable fraction explains the paucity of spawning in the upper reaches of the study drainage, but does not explain variation along the mainstem. In search of another morphologic characteristic that may help explain the variation within the mainstem, we measure riffle density, a proxy for physical habitat complexity. We find that field surveys of riffle density explain 64% of the variation in spawning in these mainstem reaches, suggesting that within reaches of appropriate sized gravel, spawning density is related to riffle density. Because riffle density varies systematically with channel width, predicting riffle spacing is straightforward with LiDAR data. Taken together, these findings demonstrate the efficacy of basin‐scale spawning habitat predictions made using high‐resolution digital elevation models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汶川8.0级地震环境剪应力特征研究

基于甘肃强震固定台和流动观测记录的汶川8.0级地震主震及余震加速度资料,选用三分向记录均完整的87次地震(震级范围为3.0~8.0级),根据用位错理论二维断裂模式推导的震源峰值加速度与环境剪应力关系式计算汶川地震序列的环境剪应力值,探讨其环境剪应力场特征。结果表明,环境剪应力和矩震级有较好的相关性,3~5级地震对应的应力值多在3~6 MPa,5~6级多在6~9 MPa,6~7级多在9MPa以上,且环境剪应力对震源深度也有较强的依赖性。     

云南禄劝地震震源处的应力场求解

采用前人反演得到的云南禄劝地震的地震矩张量和主震及部分余震的震源机制解,以该主震震中为中心在全球CMT目录中查询到的部分地震的震源机制解,先将地震矩张量转化为震源机制解,运用精细网格搜索反演方法将震源机制解反演得到禄劝地震和其周边地区的应力场。对反演得出的两个应力场进行差异性对比研究,结果表明禄劝地震震源处主压应力场为NNW—SSE向,主压应力与主张应力相当,周边地区的主压应力方向为NW—SE,断层破裂面倾角大,以走滑正断层为主,主压应力占优势。但是由于云南地区主要由NNW—SSE和NW—SE方向的主压应力控制,并受本文所选的周边地区的经纬度及所处地区的控制,所以该区域在总体上受NW—SE方向的压应力控制,局部地区受NNW—SSE方向的压应力控制。该结果可以用来分析该地区的地震地质背景和断层形成条件,对地球动力环境的研究有一定的意义。