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21.
本文以我国北黄海的烟威渔场为研究对象,采用优选因子场预报模式,对盐度的时空变化进行预报试验。文中对所采用的统计预报方法,作了简要介绍。对影响本海区盐度变化的显著因子及预报结果作了初步分析。预报试验表明:预报的总体平均绝对误差为0.27‰,预报相对误差在18%左右,预报误差小于0.5‰的站数占总站数的85%,预报趋势与实测资料基本一致。 相似文献
22.
Liu Jiaju Zhang Jingchao Prof. Senior Engineer River Harbour Department Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute Nanjing Senior Engineer River Harbour Department Nanjing Hydralulic Research Institute Nanjing 《中国海洋工程》1992,(2)
- This paper, after briefly reviewing the experimental research on sediment transport on muddy beach since the 1950s, improves and perfects the method for forecasting siltation in navigation channels and harbour basins which was first put forward in China by the authors. In consideration of silty sediment and sand, some factors in forecasting methods have been changed and modified. Consequently, the modified methods can be used either to compute siltation in navigation channels and harbour basins on muddy beach or to compute siltation and scouring in navigation channels and harbour basins on both silty beach and sandy beach. The verification of field data from eleven large, medium and small natural harbours shows a good agreement between the forecasting by the modified method and the natural conditions. Finally, the paper deals with the rational utilization of water area after the construction of the West Dyke in Lianyungang, the maintenance of water depth of the navigation channel at the entrance, siltation distribution, siltation in the navigation channel and harbour basin for ships of 100 thousand tonnnage. Results once again prove that the prospect of constructing Lianyungang Harbour into a deepwater harbour is bright. 相似文献
23.
The effects of different lateral confinement stress on the fatigue behavior of and cumulative damage to plain concrete are investigated experimentally. Eighty 100 mm x 100 mm x 100 mm specimens of ordinary strength concrete are tested under constant- or variable-amplitude fatigue loading and lateral confinement pressure in two orthogonal directions. A fatigue equation is developed by modifying the classical Aas-Jakobsen S-N equation for taking into account the effect of the confined stress on fatigue strength of plain concrete. The results of variable-amplitude fatigue tests indicate that the linear damage theory proposed by Palmgren and Miner is unreasonable in the biaxial stress state. A nonlinear cumulative damage model that could model the effects of the magnitude and sequence of variable-amplitude fatigue loading and lateral confinement pressure is proposed on the basis of the evolution laws of the residual strains in the longitudinal direction during fatigue tests. The residual fatigue life predic 相似文献
24.
High-resolution underway temperature and conductivity measurements collected by R/V Knorr during winter and spring 2003 are used to characterize errors associated with spatial aliasing in the northern and central Adriatic Sea. During winter, 99th percentile temperature, salinity and density errors were 0.62 °C, 0.25 and 0.12 kg/m3 (0.25 °C, 0.10 and 0.05 kg/m3) for sampling at 10 km (5 km) horizontal resolution, respectively. The corresponding values in spring were 1.31 °C, 0.50 and 0.40 kg/m3 (0.93 °C, 0.25 and 0.22 kg/m3) for the 10 km (5 km) sample spacing, respectively. The largest errors were associated with energetic regions over the shallow, western Adriatic, in front of the Po River mouth and off the tip of the Istrian peninsula. The deeper eastern basin exhibited smaller errors. The variability of errors in time and space reflected the variability of small-scale density features, characterized by wavelengths as small as 2 km in winter and 1 km in spring and being more pronounced in the western and northern parts of the Adriatic. As these results indicate that errors associated with undersampling can be considerable, they should be taken into account while planning future CTD measurements in the region. 相似文献
25.
一种基于BP算法学习的小波神经网络 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
为发展 Szu的基于信号表示的小波神经网络 ,提出一种多输入多输出的小波网络模型 ,网络隐层采用框架小波函数、输出层采用 Sigmoid激励函数 ,并选用“熵误差函数”以加速网络的学习速度。奇偶判别和混沌时间序列预测例子的实验结果表明了它具有良好的函数逼近能力和推广能力 ,收敛速度和均方误差均优于相同结构的多层感知器模型。 相似文献
26.
27.
在连云港近岸海域计算潮流场基础上建立拉格朗日余流模型,并对连云港市两大堤建成前后的拉格朗日余流变化进行了分析,且选择有代表性的排污口进行了数值跟踪。 相似文献
28.
以松辽盆地地质资料为基础,介绍了应力场和张裂缝预测的计算方法。通过了各种岩性的张破裂概率隶属函数,预测松辽盆地酉部张裂缝区的分布。据此,为今后的油气勘探提出了几点认识和建议。 相似文献
29.
本文从动力学定律出发,推导了一个线性的、具有下垫面温度耦合的大气环流的统计—动力模式,并用该模式对500hPa高度场及1000hPa温度场作1~30天的平均预报试验。模式的预报结果大大优于惯性预报,但耦合与不耦合的结果差别不大。 相似文献
30.
Reservoir pressures within the Bullwinkle minibasin (Green Canyon 65, Gulf of Mexico continental slope) increase at a hydrostatic gradient whereas pressures predicted from porosity within mudstones bounding these reservoirs increase at a lithostatic gradient: they are equal at a depth 1/3 of the way down from the crest of the structure. Two- and three-dimensional steady-state flow models demonstrate that bowl-shaped structures will have lower pressures than equivalent two-dimensional structures and that if a low permeability salt layer underlies the basin, the pressure is reduced. We conclude that at Bullwinkle, pressure is reduced due to an underlying salt body and the bowl-shape of the basin. A geometric approach to predict sandstone pressure is to assume that the reservoir pressure equals the area-weighted average of the mudstone pressure. When the mudstone pressure gradient is constant, as at Bullwinkle, the reservoir pressure equals the mudstone pressure at the average depth (centroid) of the reservoir. 相似文献