An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

钱二块铀矿床采铀注液结垢趋势的理论分析与预测

用离子系数矩阵法对钱二块铀矿床地浸采铀试验注液中存在的独立离子反应进行了确定,由溶度积规则及反应平衡原理,借助Matlab编程,估算出了钱二块铀矿床地浸采铀试验注液可能会生成的沉淀物种类及数量,为防治结垢提供了一定的理论依据.     

基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究

需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度.     

Application of LICOM to the numerical study of the water exchangebetween the South China Sea and its adjacent oceans

1 IntroductionThe South China Sea (SCS) is the largestmarginal sea in the western Pacific (see Fig. 1). It con-nects with the SCS through the Taiwan Strait, with thePacific through the Luzon Strait, with the Sulu Seathrough the Mindoro and Balabac Straits and with theJava Sea and Andaman Sea through the Sunda Shelf(For convenience, here we refer to the section at 1.5°N,Fig. 2). It is shown that the seasonal SCS circulation ismostly affected by the summer/winter monsoon, andthe no…     

Relationship between Salinity and Nutrients in the Subsurface Layer in the Suruga Bay

We investigated the water structure and nutrient distribution in the Suruga Bay from April 2000 to July 2002, especially the Offshore Water, which occupies a large part of the bay. The maximum salinity in the upper 200 m varied between 34.49 and 34.71, indicating a temporal change in the influence of Kuroshio Water on the Offshore Water. Seasonal variation in nutrient concentrations was largest from surface to 50 m. On the other hand, the variance in nutrient concentrations within each season was largest in the subsurface layer of 100–300 m in spring, summer and fall. In the Offshore Water, the change of nutrients was negatively correlated with that of salinity in each season. This suggests that an increasing intrusion of saline water brings about a lower nutrient concentration in the Offshore Water. Likewise, negative correlations were observed between the change of the maximum salinity and chlorophyll a (Δ [chl.a-int])/nutrients integrated in the upper 200 m. Δ[chl.a-int] was significantly correlated with the changes of nitrate and phosphorus, but there were no significant correlations between Δ[chl.a-int] and the change of silicate. These results suggest that the concentrations of chlorophyll a and nutrients in the Offshore Water were decreased due to the increasing intrusion of Kuroshio Water. The Offshore Water is likely to be related to the regulation of primary production by nitrate.     

东海区近海强风预报模式

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式，首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤，及使用说明，为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件，用１９８６、１９８７上日本传真天气图进行试报，准确和基本准确度为９１．１％，并给出了１９８９、１９９５年随船试验预报结果，准确和基本准确率为９０％以上。     

Influence of Wind on Dynamics and Flushing of Shallow Estuaries

Observations of two small estuaries in Cape Cod, U.S.A. indicate large variations in salinity structure that are forced by variations in along-estuary wind stress. During onshore winds, the estuarine circulation is reduced, and the along-estuary salinity gradient increases as freshwater accumulates. During offshore winds, the surface outflow is enhanced, freshwater is flushed out of the estuary, and the along-estuary salinity gradient becomes weak. Constrictions block the wind-induced flushing, resulting in strong salinity fronts across the constrictions. The residence time of one of the estuaries varies by more than a factor of three in response to variations in wind-induced flushing. The other estuary has little variation of flushing associated with winds, due to a constriction at the mouth that inhibits the wind-induced exchange. The strong influence of winds on the flushing of these estuaries is due in part to their shallow depths, which accentuates the influence of wind stress relative to the effects of the horizontal density gradient. In addition, the residence times of the estuaries are comparable to the time scale of wind forcing, allowing large changes in water properties during wind events.     

温度和盐度骤变条件下凡纳滨对虾的行为变化研究

以视频记录分析的方法,研究凡纳滨对虾Litopenaeus vannamei在温度和盐度骤变条件下的运动行为、摄食行为及相关生理活动的变化。结果表明,当温度由29℃骤降至18和23℃时,对虾的活动频率、游走速度和颚舟片的摆动频率明显下降,索饵时间显著增加(p<0.05);当温度由29℃骤升至36℃时,对虾的活动频率、游走速度和颚舟片的摆动频率显著升高(p<0.05),索饵时间没有显著差异(p>0.05)。当盐度由30骤降至5和10时,对虾表现出强烈的逃避行为,活动频率、游走速度和颚舟片的摆动频率均显著升高(p<0.05),并且在观察时间内没有发生摄食行为。     

浙北地区旱涝预报问题探讨—一种汛期降水量长期预报方法

本文分析了当地前期气象要素——温度的演变特点与汛期降水量之间的关系,建立了两者之间的回归方程,并由此作出降水量的长期预报,从预报误差和试报结果看,效果是好的。     

长江口及济州岛邻近海域温、盐、密度的跃层现象

本文根据CTD观测资料,分析了研究海区的温、盐、密度跃层的分布与变化,讨论了逆温逆盐层的分布区域,并从跃层角度出发,分析了深层水的涌升,黄海冷水团的上边界以及台湾暖流在东海北部的影响范围。