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根据华北地区1999年和2001年两期高精度GPS观测结果,通过与1992,1995,1996年和1999年这几期资料的比较,发现近两年的运动与前有所不同,主要表现为:(1)阴山单元和鄂尔多斯单元之间显示为压性运动的性质,但比较微弱,它们之间的边界带上似乎有左旋走滑运动,但从整体上看并不显著。(2)晋冀鲁单元和燕山单元的整体活动性不如以前,各单元内部存在着较明显的差异运动,并山单元和晋冀鲁单元的北部存在着比较显著的东西向挤压,北京地区则表现为南北向挤压。(3)晋冀鲁单元南部与胶辽鲁苏单元的南部的趋势活动呈张性,优势运动方向为东南,这样的结果可能表明,华北目前存在着应力扰动行为,大同与天津之间的区域是受其影响最大的地区,该区有可能成为未来几年中强地震活动的一个主体地区。 相似文献
104.
J. J. Bommer M. B. Benito M. Ciudad-Real A. Lemoine M. A. Lpez-Menjívar R. Madariaga J. Mankelow P. Mndez de Hasbun W. Murphy M. Nieto-Lovo C. E. Rodríguez-Pineda H. Rosa 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(5)
The small Central American republic of El Salvador has experienced, on average, one destructive earthquake per decade during the last hundred years. The latest events occurred on 13 January and 13 February 2001, with magnitudes Mw 7.7 and 6.6, respectively. The two events, which were of different tectonic origin, follow the patterns of the seismicity of the region although neither event has a known precedent in the earthquake catalogue in terms of size and location. The earthquakes caused damage to thousands of traditionally built houses and triggered hundreds of landslides, which were the main causes of fatalities. The earthquakes have clearly demonstrated trends of increasing seismic risk in El Salvador due to rapid population expansion in areas of high shaking and landslide hazard, exacerbated by deforestation and uncontrolled urbanisation. The institutional mechanisms required for the control of land use and building practice are very weak and present a major obstacle to risk mitigation. 相似文献
105.
Fuzzy neural network models for liquefaction prediction 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Integrated fuzzy neural network models are developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential of a site. The models are trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. A two-stage training algorithm is used to develop a fuzzy neural network model. In the preliminary training stage, the training case histories are used to determine initial network parameters. In the final training stage, the training case histories are processed one by one to develop membership functions for the network parameters. During the testing phase, input variables are described in linguistic terms such as ‘high’ and ‘low’. The prediction is made in terms of a liquefaction index representing the degree of liquefaction described in fuzzy terms such as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’. The results from the model are compared with actual field observations and misclassified cases are identified. The models are found to have good predictive ability and are expected to be very useful for a preliminary evaluation of liquefaction potential of a site for which the input parameters are not well defined. 相似文献
106.
I. Alberico L. Lirer P. Petrosino R. Scandone 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2002,116(1-2)
The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km2 caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps. 相似文献
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108.
Mohamed M. Hantush Rao. S. Govindaraju Miguel A. Marioand Zhonglong Zhang 《Journal of Hydrology》2002,260(1-4):58-74
This paper develops mass fraction models for transport and fate of agricultural pollutants in structured two-region soils. Mass fraction index models, based on a semi-infinite domain solution, are derived that describe leaching at depth, vapor losses through soil surface, absorption, and degradation in the dynamic- and stagnant-water soil regions. The models predict that leaching is the result of the combined effect of the upward vapor-phase transport relative to downward advection, residence time relative to half-life, dispersion, and lateral diffusive mass transfer. Simulations show that leached fraction of volatile compounds does not always decrease monotonically with increased residence time relative to the pollutant half-life, as a result of complex interactions among the different physical and biochemical processes. The results show that leaching, volatilization, and degradation losses can be affected significantly by lateral diffusive mass transfer into immobile-water regions and advection relative to dispersion (i.e. Peclet number) in the mobile-water regions. It is shown that solute diffusion into the immobile phase and subsequent biochemical decay reduces leaching and vapor losses through soil surface. Potential use of the modified leaching index for the screening of selected pesticides is illustrated for different soil textures and infiltration rates. The analysis may be useful to the management of pesticides and the design of landfills. 相似文献
109.
Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment. 相似文献
110.
Chai Chizhang Zhang Wenxiao Liao Yuhu Xu Wenjun Shen Xuhui Tian Qinjian Wei Kaibo Chen Zhengwei 《中国地震研究》2002,16(1):60-70
Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a. 相似文献