利用静止气象卫星监测初生对流的研究进展

本文主要对近年来利用静止气象卫星监测、分析和研究对流初生的国内外若干研究结果和进展给予了简要综述。主要涉及对流的判识、对流的追踪技术、初生对流的多光谱云顶特征、初生对流的判据和问题与展望等方面的内容。总体而言,利用静止气象卫星监测初生对流,以及发展的对流,是目前国内外研究和探索的热点之一。研究表明,通过精心挑选对对流敏感的光谱通道、通道组合和时间演变判据,可以对初生对流进行监测,可比地面雷达更早地预警降雨系统的发展,显示出在临近预报中的应用潜力。监测对流初生的算法流程大体上分为目标判识、目标追踪和初生对流判识三个部分。国际上主要的一些与对流初生相关的成熟算法各具特色,如RDT(Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms)算法在对流判识中强调了垂直形态的峰值检测,追踪对流时利用了速度外推并检测重叠面积。ForTraCC(Forecasting and Tracking the Evolution of Cloud Clusters)算法关注活跃对流,一定程度上考虑了对流合并和分裂的情况,具有外推预报功能。GOES-R(The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R-Series Program)算法特点是多光谱的使用,利用多光谱判识技术进行对流云顶检测,是面向下一代静止气象卫星探测能力的算法。UWCI(The University of Wisconsin Convective Initiation)构思巧妙,所提出的box-average技术简单易行,适合软件工程化。随着卫星传感器和探测能力的发展,以及计算机技术的快速发展,更多卫星资料将用于联合判识对流。同时,更新的计算机视觉、计算机图像处理和模式识别技术也将用来解决追踪中的复杂问题,进一步改进初生对流的判识准确率。     

年代际气候变率问题的研究

对年代际气候变率的研究工作和主要结果作了综合评述，并对该领域的研究前景作了一定的阐述。     

新疆短期气候预测研究的回顾

回顾了1958－1997年新疆短期气候预测研究取得的主要成果，包括：大气环流变化及其与新疆天气气候的关系；新疆冬、春季水旱以及北疆前冬冷暖长期天气过程的分析；北半球月平均加热场及其在长期天气预报中的应用；海气相互作用、地形影响、低频振荡过程以及在短期气修预测中的应用；新疆短期气候预测方法的应用研究等。     

Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate.Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including: the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era,as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response(e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature) to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.     

A critical appraisal of Sustainable Consumption and Production research: The reformist,revolutionary and reconfiguration positions

This conceptual review article provides a critical appraisal of Sustainable Consumption and Production research, which is currently framed by two generic positions. First, the ‘reformist’ position, which focuses on firms pursuing green eco-innovations and consumers buying eco-efficient products, represents the political and academic orthodoxy. Second, the ‘revolutionary’ position, which is a radical critique of the mainstream, advocates the abolishment of capitalism, materialism, and consumerism, and promotes values such as frugality, sufficiency, and localism. We find this dichotomous debate problematic, because it is intellectually stifling and politically conservative (in its outcomes). To move beyond this dichotomy, we propose a third position, ‘reconfiguration’, which focuses on transitions in socio-technical systems and daily life practices and accommodates new conceptual frameworks. For each of the three positions, we discuss: (1) the scale and type of change, (2) views on consumption and production in exemplary approaches, (3) underlying theoretical, epistemological and normative orientations, (4) policy implications, and (5) critical appraisal. The conclusion compares the three positions, provides arguments for the fruitfulness of the reconfiguration-position and offers four critical reflections about future Sustainable Consumption and Production research agendas.     

长周期地震动研究综述

本文对长周期地震动研究的主要方法,即经验统计方法和震源模型方法进行了总结,分析了它们的适用范围和存在的问题。对长周期地震动的研究趋势进行了分析。     

Marine debris review for Latin America and the wider Caribbean region: from the 1970s until now, and where do we go from here?

The available literature on marine debris from Latin America and the Wider Caribbean Region was collected and linked, reviewing their methodologies and principal results (quantities, composition and spatial-temporal patterns). The study region comprises 52 coastal countries of which only 14 had registers of works on marine debris. A total of 70 works were available and 69 had their full contents accessed. Brazil dominated the available literature with 70% of the documents. Beaches were the most studied environment, and plastics the prevalent form of contamination in the whole region. The exposure of marine biota (species, type of contact, consequences) was highlighted. The studied region, although still little exploited by this sort of research, shows the same contamination patterns observed world-wide. We also contacted 40 researchers in the area, collecting scientific contributions, opinions and suggestions for improvement of this research field. Further advances and new (urgently needed) lines of research are also discussed.     

On a PUB methodology from Chinese lessons

Abstract

Based on a Chinese saying: “Even a clever housewife cannot cook a meal without rice”, a simple categorization of the methods for Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) is proposed, including: Borrowing, obtaining hydrological information by transplanting measurements from a similar basin, or extrapolating/interpolating the data from neighbouring catchments; Substituting, finding substitutes either from the ungauged basin or from donating area(s); and Generating, obtaining data via field or laboratory observations. The Substituting category is classified further into: S1, substitution only from within the ungauged basin using fully process-based models without calibration; S2-1, from similar gauged basins using established index/distribution; S2-2, from various gauged basins using regression and/or process-based relationships between the climate/catchment features and hydrological signatures (CCH), and S3, from the information beyond the CCH relationship. Based on a review, the Darwinian S2-2 and Newtonian S1 were found to be the two most popular methods, both for China and worldwide PUB.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Hydrological response characteristics of Mediterranean catchments at different time scales: a meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

This work examines 140 hydrological studies conducted in the Mediterranean region. It identifies key characteristics of the hydrological responses of Mediterranean catchments at various time scales and compares different methods and modelling approaches used for individual-catchment studies. The study area is divided into the northwestern (NWM), eastern (EM) and southern (SM) Mediterranean. The analysis indicates regional discrepancies in which the NWM shows the most extreme rainfall regime. A tendency for reduced water resources driven by both anthropogenic and climatic pressures and a more extreme rainfall regime are also noticeable. Catchments show very heterogeneous responses over time and space, resulting in limitations in hydrological modelling and large uncertainties in predictions. However, few models have been developed to address these issues. Additional studies are necessary to improve the knowledge of Mediterranean hydrological features and to account for regional specificities.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor A. Efstratiadis     

2021年、2022年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

基于2021年、2022年中国5.0级及以上地震目录,结合应急管理部、有关省(自治区、直辖市)地震局的地震灾害评估报告和相关资料,对中国大陆地震灾害情况、主要地震灾害事件及其特点进行了总结和分析。此外,按省份总结了各省地震灾害事件及地震灾害特点。其中,云南省中强震多、强震少,震区房屋抗震能力较高,人员伤亡较小; 四川省中强震少、强震多,次生灾害较为发育,造成严重人员伤亡; 青海省虽然震级高、破坏性强、致灾范围广,但震区地广人稀,房屋抗震设防等级较高,人员伤亡少。最后,结合历史震害统计数据,分析对比近2年中国大陆地震灾害致灾特点。