Coupling of life cycles of the copepods Calanus chilensis and Centropages brachiatus to upwelling induced variability in the central-southern region of Chile

A time series of zooplankton sampling carried out at Station 18 off Concepción (36°S, 73°W) from August 2002 to December 2003 allowed the study of annual life cycles of the copepods Calanus chilensis and Centropages brachiatus in association with environmental variability in the coastal upwelling zone. Changes in the abundance of eggs, nauplii, and copepodids were assessed from samples taken at a mean time interval of ca. 20 days. Upwelling variability in near-surface waters was reflected in seasonal changes in salinity, water column stratification, and oxycline depth, as well as a weak seasonal signal in sea surface temperature (1-2 °C). Both copepods exhibited similar life cycles, characterized by continuous reproduction throughout the year. Estimates of generation times, as a function of temperature, were 25-30 days for C. chilensis and 27-35 days for C. brachiatus, predicting about 12 and 10 generations a year, respectively. These estimates were consistent with reproduction pulses observed in the field. It was thus suggested that copepods may grow under non-limiting food conditions in this upwelling area. However, despite continuous reproduction, there were abrupt changes in population sizes along with the disappearance of early naupliar and copepodid stages taking place even during the upwelling season (spring/summer). These changes were attributed to sudden increases in mortality taking place in spring or early summer, after which the populations remained at low levels through the fall and winter. It is thus suggested that, in addition to variability in the physical environment, biological interactions modulating changes in copepod mortality should be considered for understanding copepod life cycles in highly productive upwelling systems.     

南海东沙海域天然气水合物地震数据多次压制及速度特征

多次波衰减是海洋地震数据处理中的一个关键问题。东沙海域多次波极其发育,由于地形的急剧变化和地质条件的影响,多次波变形严重(不符合双曲线规律)。采用常规的处理方法效果并不明显,并可能造成成果剖面上出现明显的多次压制痕迹,很难达到保幅处理。针对此区多次波的特点,提出一种频率分离的方法将数据分离后再进行不同处理,可以很好地解决多次波的压制并突出有效波;在没有有效反射的位置,剖面的背景噪音也更符合视觉习惯;更重要的是,处理中没有频率损失,处理结果更和谐。另外,叠前偏移处理技术的运用可以使含水合物地层的接触关系、反射特征更清楚。叠前时间偏移所建立的速度模型也能够表现含水合物地层、BSR与含游离气层的相对速度关系。     

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.     

遗传算法优化的BP神经网络卫星钟差预报

针对BP (Back Propagation)神经网络模型预测卫星钟差中权值和阈值的最优化问题, 提出了基于遗传算法优化的BP神经网络卫星钟差短期预报模型, 给出了遗传算法优化BP神经网络的基本思想、具体方法和实施步骤. 为验证该优化模型的有效性和可行性, 利用北斗卫星导航系统(BeiDou navigation satellite system, BDS)卫星钟差数据进行钟差预报精度分析, 并将其与灰色模型(GM(1,1))和BP神经网络模型预报的结果比较分析. 结果表明: 该模型在短期钟差预报中具有较好的精度, 优于GM(1,1)模型和BP神经网络模型.     

不同出游时间视角下游客流动网络结构及其分异特征——以西安市为例

以热门旅游城市西安市为研究区域,采集网络游记数据,综合运用社会网络分析和GIS空间分析方法,探讨不同出游时间下的游客流动网络结构及其分异特征,研究发现：① 不同的出游时间约束下,游客旅游出行行为表现出显著的时间异质性。② 基于游客流动的西安市旅游吸引物的节点结构具有显著的等级规模分异特征,随着出游时间的增加,旅游节点等级结构体系呈现出以高等级景点为枢纽的“强强”关联特征,高等级景点的游客集聚功能提升显著。③ 随着出游时间增加,西安市区旅游节点核心?边缘结构越明显,核心区的节点联系强度越大,区位邻近、知名度接近与交通便利是形成景点组团的关键因子。     

连续变脉宽发送激电方波与自动变周期测量二次场信号

介绍一种新的激电数据采集方式。该方式的主要特点在于一次测量操作可同时获取极化二次场随时间衰减和随深度变化的信息,同时还讨论了实现该采集方式的仪器工作原理和信号测量过程中的一些技术问题。     

Status of Satellite Orbit Determination and Time Synchronization Technology for Global Navigation Satellite Systems

In the form of satellite ephemerides and clock parameters, the space datum and system time information of one global navigation satellite system (GNSS) is transferred to users. With the continuous updating in the satellite payload such as the high-precision atomic clock, the monitoring and tracking technique such as the inter-satellite link, and in the data processing technique, the accuracy and real-time performance of the satellite ephemeris and clock error products are steadily improved. Starting from December 27th, 2018, the BeiDou Navigation System 3, or BDS-3, has provided the accurate and reliable basic positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) service for the users in the countries within the “one belt and one road”. This paper has summarized the faced challenges of the precise orbit determination and time synchronization from the regional BDS-2 system to the BDS-3 global system, and the specific solutions at the control segment. In addition, this paper has compared the BDS with other GNSS systems in terms of technical characteristics. Finally, aiming at a higher accuracy and more reliable PNT service, the road map of precise orbit determination and time synchronization technique for the next generation navigation systems is discussed, which will provide a reference for developing the global navigation satellite systems with an even higher accuracy.     

影响鸢乌贼手钓上钩率的因子探讨

根据印度洋西北部鸢乌贼（Sym plectoteuthis oualaniensis）作业渔场的现场调查数据．分析了作业水深、作业时段、摄食等级和月相等因子对手钓上钩率的影响。统计表明．晚上、午夜和凌晨3个不同时段和不同作业水深对手钓上钩率均有显著性影响。3个时段中，其摄食等级呈先低后高再低的现象。午夜和凌展，上钩率的变化趋势与摄食等级的变化趋势呈显著的负相关。在月相的影响下．离朔日三四天之前，手钓产量呈上升趋势；离望日五六天之前。手钓产量呈明显的下降趋势。