Mixture models and atypical values

The resolution of a mixture of two or more populations into its component distributions may be markedly influenced by one or a few atypical values. The maximum likelihood solution effectively assigns (part of) each observation to one or another of the components via the posterior probabilities, even though the observation may be widely discrepant from all components. This paper presents a modification of the mixture problem, in which the typicality of each observation is considered, as well as the posterior probabilities, with the contribution of atypical observations being downweighted. The extension to the multivariate case is discussed.     

Intercomparison of Stratospheric Chemistry Models under Polar Vortex Conditions

Several stratospheric chemistry modules from box, 2-D or 3-D models, have been intercompared. The intercomparison was focused on the ozone loss and associated reactive species under the conditions found in the cold, wintertime Arctic and Antarctic vortices. Comparisons of both gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry modules show excellent agreement between the models under constrained conditions for photolysis and the microphysics of polar stratospheric clouds. While the mean integral ozone loss ranges from 4–80% for different 30–50 days long air parcel trajectories, the mean scatter of model results around these values is only about ±1.5%. In a case study, where the models employed their standard photolysis and microphysical schemes, the variation around the mean percentage ozone loss increases to about ±7%. This increased scatter of model results is mainly due to the different treatment of the PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemistry in the models, whereby the most unrealistic assumptions about PSC processes consequently lead to the least representative ozone chemistry. Furthermore, for this case study the model results for the ozone mixing ratios at different altitudes were compared with a measured ozone profile to investigate the extent to which models reproduce the stratospheric ozone losses. It was found that mainly in the height range of strong ozone depletion all models underestimate the ozone loss by about a factor of two. This finding corroborates earlier studies and implies a general deficiency in our understanding of the stratospheric ozone loss chemistry rather than a specific problem related to a particular model simulation.     

边角网在煤矿井筒十字中线恢复中的实践与分析

首先介绍了边角网在煤矿地面控制系统恢复中的应用,再利用恢复后的控制成果对井筒十字中线基点精确放样,然后再次利用边角网对放样的基点进行检测。以吴桂桥煤矿为例,阐述边角网在煤矿井筒十字中线恢复中的应用。     

地下物探在有色金属矿山寻找隐伏矿体的应用

介绍了地下地球物理找矿方法在几个典型有色金属矿山进行生产找矿的实例，根据对不同深度的面积工作获得的系列直流电法、电磁法异常的计算分析，分别提出解释推断及施工建议，经工程验证，取得了显著的地质效果。     

A rational method for development of limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on shear wave velocity measurements

This papers presents a new approach for developing a limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on field performance data. As an example to illustrate the new approach, a database that consists of, among many other features, in situ shear wave velocity measurements and field observations of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction in historic earthquakes is analysed. This database is first used to train a neural network to classify liquefaction/non‐liquefaction based on soil resistance parameters and load parameters. The successfully trained and tested neural network is then used to establish a limit state, a multiple dimension boundary that separates ‘zone’ of liquefaction from ‘zone’ of non‐liquefaction. The limit state yields cyclic resistance ratio for a given set of soil resistance parameters. Examination of all cases in the database show that the developed limit state has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the occurrence of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction. The developed neural network model can accurately predict the cyclic resistance ratio of soils. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

海洋生态文明视域下河口沙坝-潟湖生态修复思路探究

加大海岸整治修复力度是推进海洋生态文明建设的必然要求。沙坝-潟湖海岸具有典型的生态系统和独特的社会价值,同时也因人类活动受到不同程度破坏,是“蓝色海湾”等整治修复项目的重要对象。文章以辽宁省浮渡河口沙坝-潟湖为例,总结国内外河口沙坝-潟湖主要生态修复思路和方法,提出生态修复过程中沙坝-潟湖受损机制和生态修复评估体系构建两个关键技术问题。在此基础上,为深入推进我国海岸生态保护修复管理和海岸整治修复工程实践,需要做好顶层设计和提升整治修复能力两方面主要工作。     

Environmental change,hydromorphological reference conditions and the restoration of Polish Carpathian rivers

In the twentieth century Polish Carpathian rivers were considerably modified by channelization and gravel mining, with significant detrimental effects to their ecological integrity, vertical stability of the streambeds and flood hazard to downstream river reaches. Restoration of the rivers is thus necessary to improve their ecological status and re‐establish geomorphic dynamic equilibrium conditions. Various approaches to defining hydromorphological reference conditions, proposed to date in river restoration literature, have serious deficiencies. In particular, environmental changes that took place in the catchments of Carpathian rivers during the twentieth century invalidate the historical state of the rivers as reference for their restoration. This is illustrated by a change from bar‐braided to island‐braided channel pattern that occurred in the past century in unmanaged sections of the Czarny Dunajec in response to a reduction in flow and sediment dynamics of the river. We indicate that reference conditions should be defined as those which exist or would exist under present environmental conditions in the catchment but without human influence on the channel, riparian zone and floodplain of the river which is to be restored. This assumption was tested through the evaluation of hydromorphological river quality of the Czarny Dunajec according to the European Standard EN‐14614. The evaluation confirmed a high‐status hydromorphological quality in an unmanaged channel section, which can thus be used as a reference for restoration of impacted river sections. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于主导生态功能的江西省国土空间生态修复分区研究

以地域分异特征、主导生态功能、典型生态问题为基础依据,探讨江西省国土空间生态修复分区,为江西省编制和实施生态修复规划、实现国土空间管控提供科技支撑。在研究方法上,以“生命共同体理论”“三生协调理论”“适宜性管理”等理论为指导,基于主体功能区划和生态功能区划,综合“三生”空间实际生态问题及综合整治需求,采用多因素综合空间分析法,“自上而下”和“自下而上”相结合,实现国土空间生态修复三级分区。研究结果表明,可将江西省国土空间生态修复区域划为赣北平原湖泊生态修复区、赣中丘陵盆地生态修复区、赣西山地丘陵生态修复区、赣南山地丘陵生态修复区、赣东丘陵山地生态修复区5个大区及24个亚区和42个修复小区。通过江西省国土空间生态修复三级分区,摸清国土空间地域特征,明确生态主导功能,确定生态修复重点区域,承上启下,为实施生态修复工程和国土空间管治提供决策依据,为实现国土空间整体保护、系统修复、综合治理提供科技途径。     

库车坳陷东部吐格尔明背斜构造特征及其控藏作用

库车坳陷东部吐格尔明背斜经历多期构造变形与断裂活动,地震资料品质差,油气水分布复杂。构造解析合理性直接影响对研究区构造运动学过程、动力学机制以及油气成藏规律的认识。本文以野外观测数据、钻井和地震数据为基础,对库车坳陷东部吐格尔明背斜进行构造解释,运用平衡剖面恢复原理,对研究区构造演化进行了恢复,在此基础上对构造控藏作用进行了探讨并指出了有利勘探区。结果表明,研究区主要发育吐孜洛克断层和吐格尔明断层,其中吐孜洛克断层主要从上新统库车组沉积期开始活动,活动强度大、控制了翼前巨厚的生长地层和现今吐格尔明大背斜的形成;吐格尔明断层从侏罗纪末开始陆续活动至今,控制古隆起的形成;研究区在平面上由南向北可依次划分为深部凹陷区、南翼斜坡区、中部背斜区以及北翼斜坡区四个区带。构造演化对不同区带的埋藏演化过程、储层物性特征和盖层保存条件具有明显的控制作用,其侏罗系有利勘探方向主要有：背斜斜坡背景上的局部构造高,背斜南翼和北翼斜坡带低部位的构造—岩性圈闭以及断层下盘的深部构造—岩性圈闭。     

A Case Study of a Typical Dust Storm Event over the Loess Plateau of Northwest China

Enhanced observational meteorological elements,energy fluxes,and the concentration of dust aerosols collected from the Semi-Arid Climate Observatory and Laboratory(SACOL) during a typical dust storm period in March 2010 at Lanzhou were used in this paper to investigate the impact of dust aerosols on near surface atmospheric variables and energy budgets.The results show that the entire dust storm event was associated with high wind velocities and decreasing air pressure,and the air changed from cold and wet to warm and dry and then recovered to its initial state.The response of energy fluxes occurred behind meteorological elements.At high dust concentration periods,the net radiation was significantly less in the daytime and higher at night,while the heat fluxes displayed the same trend,indicating the weakening of the land-atmosphere energy exchange.The results can be used to provide verification for numerical model results in semi-arid areas.