强震前的“加速矩释放”（AMR）现象：对一个有争议的地震前兆的回溯性震例研究

近年来,国际上对于强震前的加速矩释放（AMR）现象是否可作为一种可靠的、带有普遍性的地震前兆现象争议较大.本文以2008年3月21日新疆于田M_S7.3地震为例,试图从前兆存在的客观性和与地震发生的物理相关性两方面考察本次地震前的AMR现象.用“破裂时间分析”方程中的幂指数m作为描述震前加速矩释放“程度”的参量,在时间-空间-地震序列截止震级组成的三维参数空间（T,R,M_c）内考察AMR现象存在的客观性.考虑了多种因素对m（T, R, M_c）分布图像可能的影响,其中,余震是否删除和M_c对计算影响不大,但M_L6.0以上“干扰”事件的影响则较大.结果表明,于田地震前的确存在AMR现象,但得到的m（T, R, M_c）分布图像较为复杂,可观测到两个明显的AMR集中分布区.此外,在以实际震中为圆心的多个圆形区域内,使用固定时间窗向实际发震时刻滑动逼近,可观测到m值逐渐减小,即加速特征逐渐明显的过程.对震前矩释放程度m值的时-空扫描结果显示,出现AMR现象的空间区域与震中位置似有较好的对应,但其时-空演化图像与滑动时-空窗的选取有关.这表明,本次M_S7.3地震前的确存在AMR现象,并与其孕震过程在物理上相关.但本文仅是一个震例的研究,无法给出具有统计显著性的结论,此外,用AMR来约束地震发生的时间看来是困难的.     

Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano,Central Mexico

Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.     

Comparison of source parameters estimated in the frequency and time domains for seismic events at the Rudna copper mine,Poland

Source parameters estimated in the frequency domain for 100 selected seismic events from the Rudna copper mine, with moment magnitude ranging from 1.4 to 3.6, were collected to study their scaling relations and to compare them with the parameters estimated in the time domain. The apparent stress and static stress drop, corrected for the limited bandwidth recording, increase slightly in a similar manner with increasing seismic moment. The ratio of apparent stress to static stress drop, a measure of radiation efficiency, is practically constant and its mean value is close to 0.1. For 37 seismic events, with moment magnitude between 1.9 and 3.4, source parameters were estimated in the time domain from relative source time functions, that displayed unilateral rupture propagation, and their rupture velocity could be estimated. It ranges from 0.23 to 0.80 of shear wave velocity and is almost independent of seismic moment. The fault length, estimated from the average source pulse width and rupture velocity, is clearly dependent on seismic moment and is smaller than the source radius estimated from the corner frequency on the average by about 25 percent. There is no correlation between the values of static stress drop estimated in the frequency and time domains, but the time domain stress drop is in general similar to that estimated in the frequency domain. The apparent stress increases with increasing rupture velocity, and the ratio of apparent stress to static stress drop seems also to depend on rupture velocity.     

爆炸应力波作用下缺陷介质裂纹扩展的动态分析

采用透射式焦散线测试系统,进行爆炸应力波作用下缺陷介质裂纹扩展试验,研究了含与炮孔共线的预制裂隙介质裂纹扩展速度、加速度、裂纹尖端动态应力强度因子和动态能量释放率的变化规律以及它们之间的变化关系。试验结果表明,在爆炸应力波作用下裂隙两端产生了两条翼裂纹A、B,翼裂纹A的长度较翼裂纹B长,两条翼裂纹向相反的方向扩展;在翼裂纹扩展过程中,存在着加速与减速的过程,扩展速度瞬间达到峰值,其后逐渐振荡下降;动态应力强度因子也呈现瞬间达最大值到逐渐减小连续振荡变化的趋势,动态应力强度因子 > ;翼裂纹尖端的动态能量释放率对裂纹扩展具有驱动作用。     

疏浚物中镉释放的影响条件

本文模拟研究了疏浚沉积物中Ｃd的释放行为和影响条件。结果表明介质的盐度、pＨ、氧化还原状态等环境条件和疏浚沉积物的污染程度、粒度大小、有机质含量等理化特征对Ｃd的 释放有明显的影响。Ｃd从疏浚物中释放,其释放速率较快,释放率在４０％～９６％之间。疏物的海上倾弃可能引起Ｃd的污染和对部分生态环境的危害。同时还讨论了Ｃd的释放所遵循的动力学规律。     

一次台风移出后MCC发展成因分析

应用FY-4A卫星云顶亮温(TBB)、自动站雨量资料和ERA5(0.25°×0.25°)再分析资料,对2020年第4号台风“黑格比”移出后在杭州湾生成MCC发展成因进行了分析。结果表明：(1)台风南侧的切变线辐合抬升作用以及南亚高压东部反气旋环流辐散抽吸作用,有利于中低空大气上升运动的增强,为MCC的发展增强提供良好的动力抬升条件;(2)低层台风北上后,其移动方向左后侧的冷空气南下,并与长三角地区的西南低空暖湿气流强烈交汇,斜压锋生增强,形成较强的上升运动;（3）受大陆高压东移影响,对流层中高层干冷空气东移,叠加在对流层中低空暖湿急流之上,形成了有利于MCC发生发展的大气位势不稳定层结;(4)切变线南端的西南低空急流不仅加强了低层大气的辐合和上升运动,更重要的是为MCC的发生发展提供丰富的水汽输送和汇聚;(5)水汽凝结潜热释放在MCC发展中起重要作用。水汽释放潜热加热大气,使上升运动增强,低层辐合进一步增强。低层水汽汇聚并不断向高空输送,补偿了高空凝结的水汽,潜热的不断释放,有利于MCC发展和维持。总之,台风中心移出后,台风南侧的切变线及其南侧的西南暖湿气流稳定地维持在MCC上空,为M...     

Role of Quaternary stratigraphy on arsenic-contaminated groundwater from parts of Middle Ganga Plain,UP–Bihar,India

Late Quaternary stratigraphy and sedimentation in the Middle Ganga Plain (MGP) (Uttar Pradesh–Bihar) have influenced groundwater arsenic contamination. Arsenic contaminated aquifers are pervasive within narrow entrenched channels and flood plains (T₀-Surface) of fine-grained grey to black coloured argillaceous organic rich Holocene sediments (Newer Alluvium). Contaminated aquifers are often located close to distribution of abandoned or existing channels and swamps. The Pleistocene Older Alluvium upland terraces (T₂-Surface) made up of oxidized yellowish brown sediments with calcareous and ferruginous concretions and the aquifers within it are free of arsenic contamination. MGP sediments are mainly derived from the Himalaya with minor inputs from the Peninsular India. The potential source of arsenic in MGP is mainly from the Himalaya. The contaminated aquifers in the Terai belt of Nepal are closely comparable in nature and age to those of the MGP. Arsenic was transported from disseminated sources as adsorbed on dispersed phases of hydrated-iron-oxidea and later on released to groundwater mainly by reductive dissolution of hydrated-iron-oxide and corresponding oxidation of organic matter in aquifer. Strong reducing nature of groundwater is indicated by high concentration of dissolved iron (11.06 mg/l). Even within the arsenic-affected areas, dugwells are found to be arsenic safe due to oxyginated nature.     

云南大理地区温泉CO2释放与地震预报研究

通过对大理地区鹤庆、洱源、下关、弥渡等温泉水CO2释放特征及与区域地震活动的相关性研究，提炼出单项地震预报指标，从而进行系统合成，找出大理地区CO2的综合预报指标。     

2000年下半年全球地震活动

2000年下半年全球共发生Mw≥6．5地震27次，其中23次为浅源地震，深源地震4次。发生Mw≥7．0地震5次，最大震级达Mw8．0。11月16日和17日，在俾斯麦群岛和所罗门群岛交界地区，发生了3次Mw≥7．8地震。2000年，全球地震活动处于1976年以来的较高水平。     

新丰江余震震群的“应力窗口”效应与华南地区的地震活动

本文取1962至1990年12月广东省新丰江地震的余震序列资料，从应变释放的角度定量地分析新丰江的余震活动特点以及与华南地区中强地震活动的关系，并与理论分析结果对比。发现新丰江地震的余震应变释放过程具有4次明显的应变异常增加，而且，从新丰江地震以来，华南地区发生的所有5.0以上中强地震都与新丰江余震应变释放的明显异常增加相“联系”，新丰江余震震群的出现是华南地区构造应力场增强的背景下余震区应力加强的效应，可以起到监视华南地区5.0级以上中强地震的“应力窗口”作用。从1986年以来，新丰江地区的余震活动有所加强，其应变释放明显增加，表明华南地区的构造应力场在加强，其地震活动可能达到较高的水平。