沈阳市供水系统抗震功能可靠性分析

城市供水管网的抗震研究能够服务于供水管网的规划、设计和改造。以沈阳市供水管网系统为背景,介绍了一类求解大型供水网络节点及系统功能可靠度的方法。对沈阳市主干供水网络进行了抗震功能可靠性分析。研究结果证明,建议方法是合理评价供水管网地震后工作性能的工具,可以为大型供水管网的抗震可靠度分析及抗震设计服务提供基础。     

有向线对象细节拓扑关系模型

轨迹在地理空间中相对一条有向线移动时,可能发生多次进入、离开、穿过、相遇、折返、停留等拓扑关系。针对轨迹-有向线的时空关联特征,提出语义关联的轨迹-有向线移动过程模型:基本思路是将轨迹-有向线的复杂拓扑细节描述为若干局部拓扑关系的组合,从拓扑和语义的角度描述轨迹相对于有向线的移动过程。最后设计并实现了面向该模型的关系模式,并以两类典型请求为例,分析了轨迹-有向线移动过程的纯SQL查询分析技术。     

Going Home: The Migration of Puerto Rican-Born Women from the United States to Puerto Rico*

This paper analyzes the migration of Puerto Rican-born women from the United States to Puerto Rico using longitudinal data. We hypothesize that sojourn length in the United States is a function of both structural (macro-level economic and cultural factors) and behavioral (micro-level life-cycle experiences and personal attributes) variables. We test these hypotheses by estimating a proportional hazards model. The parameter estimates of this model indicate that sojourn length in the United States, and thus the decision to return to Puerto Rico, is a function of wage trends and community characteristics on the mainland plus a number of individual attributes that include education, marriage, and childbirth.     

对马海峡环流季节变化的模拟及分析

在利用改进的POM模式的基础上,嵌套西北太平洋区域模式HAMSOM结果,建立1个日本海对马海峡海域斜压准预报模式.通过与已有的观测和研究进行对比,得到较为可信的模拟结果.以温度场和盐度场为参考,系统分析讨论该海域的环流结构及其季节变化.对于温度锋和盐度锋的位置,以及对马暖流的流核等存在争议的问题给出了相应的解释.对马海峡作为日本海的上层水体主要输入区域,对马暖流携带的高温高盐水经过该区域时,在温盐等方面呈现出自南向北的递减变化趋势.对马暖流被对马岛分为东西两支,流核深度随季节变化,并且明显存在双核结构.     

基于解析解的长江口南港悬沙侧向捕集特征分析

为探讨长江口南港的水动力结构及悬沙侧向输运特征,本文从解析解的角度构建了潮汐河口水沙输运数学模型,并将其应用到长江口南港某横断面上。南港水动力主控于半日潮流,余流主要由陆相径流及本地非线性对流项驱动,悬沙分布上北侧副槽远大于南侧主槽,水沙分布的计算结果与实测结果在结构上基本一致。通过输沙函数进一步分析表明,潮流输沙和余流输沙是南港侧向输沙函数的两个主要部分。南港中强劲径流削弱了涨潮流,增强了落潮流,使得向河槽南侧的涨潮流输沙小于向河槽北侧的落潮流输沙,潮流输沙指向河槽北侧。径流驱动的南港侧向余流在涨潮流方向上为一逆时针环流结构,余流输沙指向河槽北侧。扩散输沙指向南侧主槽,因其总是指向悬沙浓度梯度的负方向。在各输沙因子的综合作用下,南港中大量悬沙捕集于河槽北侧,使得河槽北部底层潮平均含沙量值达到最大值。     

Modeling the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides using the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model： a case study of the Sabae Area, Japan

A number of statistical methods are typically used to effectively predict potential landslide distributions. In this study two multivariate statistical analysis methods were used （weights of evidence and logistic regression） to predict the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides in the Kamikawachi area of Sabae City, Fukui Prefecture, Japan. First, the dependent variable （shallow-seated landslides） was divided into presence and absence, and the independent variables （environmental factors such as slope and altitude） were categorized according to their characteristics. Then, using the weights of evidence （WE） method, the weights of pairs comprising presence （w^＋（i）） or absence （w^-（i））, and the contrast values for each category of independent variable （evidence）, were calculated, Using the method that integrated the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model, score values were calculated for each category of independent variable. Based on these contrast values, three models were selected to sum the score values of every gird in the study area. According to a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis （ROC）, model 2 yielded the best fit for predicting the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslide hazards, with 89% correctness and a 54.5% hit ratio when the occurrence probability （OP） of landslides was 70%. The model was tested using data from an area close to the study region, and showed 94% correctness and a hit ratio of 45.7% when the OP of landslides was 70%. Finally, the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides, based on the OP, was mapped using a geographical information system.     

Genetic algorithm for fitting a mixed Bingham distribution to 3D orientations: a tool for the statistical and paleostress analyses of fracture orientations

The clustering of fracture orientations is important for tectonic studies and for geotechnical engineering. In this study, a real‐coded genetic algorithm was adopted to fitting a mixed Bingham distribution to orientation data by maximizing the log‐likelihood function of the distribution. The maximization is a difficult problem, because the function has multimodality and singularity. It was found that the algorithm was effective for this problem. Given the orientations of dilational fractures, the present method determines not only the stress axes and stress ratio of each of the fracture groups but also the maximum non‐dimensionalized fluid pressure at the time of their formation. In addition, the software calculates the 95 % error ellipses of the concentration axes. The present method found that the orientations of ore veins of the Akenobe Mine, SW Japan, should be partitioned into three clusters. It is shown that two of the groups had distinctive Zn and Sn contents, and that the ore fluids had overpressures only slightly greater than the minimum principal stress at the time of the deposition of Zn‐ and Sn‐rich veins.     

如何利用计算机技术进行地图投影变换

在目前流行的计算机制图中，必须面对如何解决使用不同投影的地图资料的问题，本文从实际应用的角度出发，介绍并讨论解决方法及应用手段。     

1830年磁县7．5级地震震源区尾波衰减特征

利用磁县数字地震台记录到的近震波形资料,采用Aki尾波单次散射模型,计算1830年磁县7．5级大地震震源区50km范围内的尾波Qc值;经多地震拟合得出在尾波流逝时间为20s时,Qc=（70．2±29．3）f^（0.8054±0.1615）;40s,时Qc=（96．6±25．3）,f^（0.7772±0.1098）。结果表明,磁县震源区Q0值较低,震区地震波衰减比邢台、唐山震区快;η值表明Qc值对频率的依赖性弱于邢台和唐山震区。     

Application of singular spectrum analysis to identify the degrading structure using deteriorating distributed element model

Reinforced concrete structure may exhibit significant inelastic hysteretic behavior when subject to strong earthquake excitation. To investigate such an inelastic behavior, in this study, a new system identification technique is applied by using the deteriorating distributed element (DDE) model to simulate the hysteretic behavior of a degrading structure. Through the advanced signal processing technique, the multiple singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the nonlinear SSA, the recorded inelastic restoring force of a deteriorating structure can be decomposed into several independent additive components in its sequentially degrading order and with decreasing weight. With each decomposed hysteresis loop, the model parameters of the DDE model are identified. The evolutionary properties of the progressive stiffness degradation behavior of reinforced concrete structure can be observed from the identified model parameters. Finally, comparison on the physical properties of the identified DDE model with respect to the seismic response data of the deteriorating structure is also discussed. The result shows that the proposed identification technique can have a good estimation on the seismic behavior of the degrading structure. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.