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151.
ABSTRACTSeries of observed flood intervals, defined as the time intervals between successive flood peaks over a threshold, were extracted directly from 11 approximately 100-year streamflow datasets from Queensland, Australia. A range of discharge thresholds were analysed that correspond to return periods of approximately 3.7 months to 6.3 years. Flood interval histograms at South East Queensland gauges were consistently unimodal whereas those of the North and Central Queensland sites were often multimodal. The exponential probability distribution (pd) is often used to describe interval exceedence probabilities, but fitting utilizing the Anderson-Darling statistic found little evidence that it is the most suitable. The fatigue life pd dominated sub-year return periods (<1 year), often transitioning to a log Pearson 3 pd at above-year return periods. Fatigue life pd is used in analysis of the lifetime to structural failure when a threshold is exceeded, and this paper demonstrates its relevance also to the elapsed time between above-threshold floods. At most sites, the interval medians were substantially less than the means for sub-year return periods. Statistically the median is a better measure of the central tendency of skewed distributions but the mean is generally used in practice to describe the classical concept of flood return period.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor I. Nalbantis 相似文献
152.
将非等间距数列转化为等间距数列,并建立无偏GM(1,1)模型.通过对非等间距数列的处理,得到适合GM(1,1)建模的等时距数列,并在GM(1,1)模型的基础上,给出非等间距无偏GM(1,1)建模的具体步骤.从理论上证明无偏GM(1,1)能消除GM(1,1)模型的固有偏差,拓宽GM(1,1)的使用范围.最后将模型应用于实际建筑沉降预测中,研究结果表明非等间距无偏(1,1)模型精度高、实用性强. 相似文献
153.
154.
In this paper,a kind of explicit difference scheme to solve nonlinear evolution equations,perfectly keeping the square conservation by adjusting the time step interval,is constructed,from the comprehensive maintenance of the advantages of the implicit complete square conservative scheme and the explicit instantaneous square conservative scheme.The new schemes are based on the thought of adding a small dissipation,but it is different from the small dissipation method.The dissipative term used in the new schemes is not a simple artificial dissipative term,but a so-called(time) harmonious dissipative term that can compensate for the truncation errors from the dissociation of the time differential term.Therefore,the new schemes may have a high time precision and may acquire a satisfactory effect in numerical tests. 相似文献
155.
对拟建设的新疆且末地磁台进行场址勘选,采取十字剖面测量和密跨度测量方法进行地磁场总强度F测量,对测量结果进行初步分析.分析结果表明,且末地磁台的地质条件、磁场梯度分布和背景噪声环境等地磁观测环境条件,符合国家地磁台建设规范的要求,适宜地磁基准台站建设. 相似文献
156.
In this paper, the effect of pulse-type motions caused by forward directivity that can release huge amounts of energy in a short time period is studied on a telecommunication tower. Since telecommunication towers have longer periods, they are not as affected by seismic forces. Nevertheless, near source earthquakes characterized by high velocity and velocity pulses can change the behavior of these structures. For this reason, a telecommunication tower located near active faults was selected in this study. Considering the probable earthquake magnitude at the site and the distance of the tower from adjacent faults, nine simulated pulses and three near-fault earthquake records with forward directivity are selected and applied to a 3D fi nite element model of the tower. The results of nonlinear dynamic analysis, i.e., displacements and damage in the tower, indicate that the maximum displacement and drift ratio of the tower under the pulses are obviously affected by the ratio of the structure period to pulse period. When this ratio is decreased and close to 1.0, the maximum displacement and drift ratio are sharply increased and cause large displacements in the tower. 相似文献
157.
A.F. Mastryukov 《Russian Geology and Geophysics》2011,52(9):1035-1042
A spectral method for modeling high-frequency electromagnetic waves in axisymmetric geometry is proposed.The method is based on the expansion of the solutions of Maxwell’s equations in Laguerre functions in the time region.The spectral method is used to solve Maxwell’s equations for both 2D media and stratified media. In the case of stratified media, a Fourier–Bessel expansion in the radial variable is used. The effectiveness of the spectral and finite-difference methods is compared. Harmonic solutions and solitary solutions by the Laguerre method are considered, and the dynamics of monochromatic and broadband electromagnetic pulses are examined. 相似文献
158.
令纬度ψ<,j>转换为ψ<,j>后,中央经线方程用一个ψ<,j>的7次幂方程表示,中央经线方程的系数关联着纬线间隔.令经度λ<,i>转换为ξ<,i>后,赤道方程用一个ξ<,i>的7次幂方程表示,赤道方程的系数关联着经线间隔.经线的收敛度由经线方程的收敛系数调节.由此构建可调节经线收敛度和经纬线间隔的伪圆柱投影.用一实例... 相似文献
159.
黑河流域荒漠区土壤水分对降水脉动响应 总被引:16,自引:5,他引:11
利用气象站资料,对黑河流域荒漠区降水特征及其土壤水分对降水脉动响应进行了系统研究。结果表明,荒漠区降水属于降水脉动事件,降水前后土壤水分特征存在显著差异,且随土层增加差异逐渐变小。土壤水分在降水量、土壤深度和降水前后的差异极显著,交互效应也极显著(P<0.0001),表明荒漠区土壤水分对降水脉动具有显著的响应现象。土壤水分的降水脉动响应表现为降水后土壤含水量激增,在蒸散作用下缓慢减小。降水前后土壤含水量的时间序列变异规律均能较好地拟合成变异函数的理论模型。降水前后土壤含水量随机变异均小于结构性变异,反映出荒漠区土壤水分在时间尺度上具有较强的自相关性格局。降水使土壤水分空间结构差异呈现下降趋势,在时间序列上异质性降低。 相似文献
160.
选取威宁县1985年至2020年气象资料和黑颈鹤物候观测资料,采用数理统计、M-K突变检验等方法对各气候因子的趋势变化倾向率、主要气候因子对黑颈鹤物候期的影响进行研究。根据气象要素对黑颈鹤物候期的响应模式进行逐步回归结果表明:黑颈鹤的初见期、间隔期、终见期在1985-1990年间变化幅度较大。总体而言,近35年来初见期总体变化趋于平稳,终见期呈现上升趋势,说明黑颈鹤在威宁的停留时间有缩短趋势、终见期有提前的趋势。8月平均气温每升高1℃,黑颈鹤的初见期将推后4.485天;11月的平均风速每增加1m/s间隔期将会延长16.128天;3月雨日每增加1天,终见期将会推后1.863天,间隔期延长1.482天;1月平均风速每增加1m/s,终见期将会推后8.929天。说明气候变化对黑颈鹤物候期有积极的影响,比较敏感?可为气候变化的提供一定的指示作用。 相似文献