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淮河息县站流量概率预报模型研究 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
应用美国天气局采用的由Roman Krzysztofowicz开发的贝叶斯统计理论建立概率水文预报理论框架,即以分布函数形式定量地描述水文预报不确定度,研究了淮河息县站流量概率预报模型。理论和经验表明,概率预报至少与确定性预报一样有价值,特别当预报不确定度较大时,概率预报比现行确定性预报具有更高的经济价值。 相似文献
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Beds comprising debrite sandwiched within co-genetic turbidite: origin and widespread occurrence in distal depositional environments 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
Co‐genetic debrite–turbidite beds occur in a variety of modern and ancient turbidite systems. Their basic character is distinctive. An ungraded muddy sandstone interval is encased within mud‐poor graded sandstone, siltstone and mudstone. The muddy sandstone interval preserves evidence of en masse deposition and is thus termed a debrite. The mud‐poor sandstone, siltstone and mudstone show features indicating progressive layer‐by‐layer deposition and are thus called a turbidite. Palaeocurrent indicators, ubiquitous stratigraphic association and the position of hemipelagic intervals demonstrate that debrite and enclosing turbidite originate in the same event. Detailed field observations are presented for co‐genetic debrite–turbidite beds in three widespread sequences of variable age: the Miocene Marnoso Arenacea Formation in the Italian Apennines; the Silurian Aberystwyth Grits in Wales; and Quaternary deposits of the Agadir Basin, offshore Morocco. Deposition of these sequences occurred in similar unchannellized basin‐plain settings. Co‐genetic debrite–turbidite beds were deposited from longitudinally segregated flow events, comprising both debris flow and forerunning turbidity current. It is most likely that the debris flow was generated by relatively shallow (few tens of centimetres) erosion of mud‐rich sea‐floor sediment. Changes in the settling behaviour of sand grains from a muddy fluid as flows decelerated may also have contributed to debrite deposition. The association with distal settings results from the ubiquitous presence of muddy deposits in such locations, which may be eroded and disaggregated to form a cohesive debris flow. Debrite intervals may be extensive (> 26 × 10 km in the Marnoso Arenacea Formation) and are not restricted to basin margins. Such long debris flow run‐out on low‐gradient sea floor (< 0·1°) may simply be due to low yield strength (? 50 Pa) of the debris–water mixture. This study emphasizes that multiple flow types, and transformations between flow types, can occur within the distal parts of submarine flow events. 相似文献
156.
A combined gravity map over the Indian Peninsular Shield (IPS) and adjoining oceans brings out well the inter-relationships between the older tectonic features of the continent and the adjoining younger oceanic features. The NW–SE, NE–SW and N–S Precambrian trends of the IPS are reflected in the structural trends of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal suggesting their probable reactivation. The Simple Bouguer anomaly map shows consistent increase in gravity value from the continent to the deep ocean basins, which is attributed to isostatic compensation due to variations in the crustal thickness. A crustal density model computed along a profile across this region suggests a thick crust of 35–40 km under the continent, which reduces to 22/20–24 km under the Bay of Bengal with thick sediments of 8–10 km underlain by crustal layers of density 2720 and 2900/2840 kg/m3. Large crustal thickness and trends of the gravity anomalies may suggest a transitional crust in the Bay of Bengal up to 150–200 km from the east coast. The crustal thickness under the Laxmi ridge and east of it in the Arabian Sea is 20 and 14 km, respectively, with 5–6 km thick Tertiary and Mesozoic sediments separated by a thin layer of Deccan Trap. Crustal layers of densities 2750 and 2950 kg/m3 underlie sediments. The crustal density model in this part of the Arabian Sea (east of Laxmi ridge) and the structural trends similar to the Indian Peninsular Shield suggest a continent–ocean transitional crust (COTC). The COTC may represent down dropped and submerged parts of the Indian crust evolved at the time of break-up along the west coast of India and passage of Reunion hotspot over India during late Cretaceous. The crustal model under this part also shows an underplated lower crust and a low density upper mantle, extending over the continent across the west coast of India, which appears to be related to the Deccan volcanism. The crustal thickness under the western Arabian Sea (west of the Laxmi ridge) reduces to 8–9 km with crustal layers of densities 2650 and 2870 kg/m3 representing an oceanic crust. 相似文献
157.
利用遥感综合分析西风引导气流与地形对沙尘运移路径的影响 总被引:2,自引:7,他引:2
沙尘暴的发生受大气环流、地表状况、降雨的影响,还受到局部地区地形的影响。一次规模较大的沙尘暴过程,沙尘可以从蒙古国和我国西部沙源地输送到我国东部、韩国、日本乃至夏威夷、美国西海岸。中日亚洲沙尘暴ADEC项目对亚洲沙尘暴的起沙、传输和降落的运行机制已经作了深入的研究,并建立了亚洲沙尘暴的数值模拟系统。本文以影响北京地区的沙尘暴事件为例,利用遥感技术,综合DEM地形数据和地面实测数据分析西风引导气流和地形对沙尘运移路径影响,将MODIs影像数据和DEM地形数据以及地面观测站点实测数据相结合,进行综合分析,结果表明在一次沙尘暴过程中,沙尘在运移过程中的运移路径明显地受到西风引导气流、沙尘粒子自然沉降规律以及局部地形的影响,要预防(减少)北京地区的沙尘暴仅仅作好北京地区的生态环境建设是不够的,加强北京周边地区,尤其是张家口地区、官厅水库库区及库区周围地区的生态环境建设尤为重要。 相似文献
158.
用遗传算法反演地壳的变密度模型 总被引:7,自引:1,他引:7
用青藏高原布格重力异常资料 ,结合亚东 格尔木地学断面得到的Moho面结构 ,反演了青藏高原中部地壳内密度随深度变化的指数分布函数 ,试验得出地壳表层与地幔的密度差约为 - 0 .92 6 g·cm-3 ,地壳的平均密度值为 2 .75 0 g·cm-3 。 相似文献
159.
针对传统的边缘提取方法大部分不适应高光谱数据的特点,提出了基于光谱空间密度分析边缘提取的思想。在分组主分量变换提取第一主分量作为特征维的基础上,采用面向对象的二次判别边缘的方法,通过立体判决将光谱空间中低密度超椭球体集群视为真实边缘点集群。试验表明,此方法是合理可行的。 相似文献
160.