Evidence for different scaling of earthquake source parameters for large earthquakes depending on faulting mechanism

Scaling relationships between seismic moment, rupture length, and rupture width have been examined. For this purpose, the data from several previous studies have been merged into a database containing more than 550 events. For large earthquakes, a dependence of scaling on faulting mechanism has been found. Whereas small and large dip-slip earthquakes scale in the same way, the self-similarity of earthquakes breaks down for large strike-slip events. Furthermore, no significant differences in scaling could be found between normal and reverse earthquakes and between earthquakes from different regions. Since the thickness of the seismogenic layer limits fault widths, most strike-slip earthquakes are limited to rupture widths of between 15 and 30 km while the rupture length is not limited. The aspect ratio of dip-slip earthquakes is similar for all earthquake sizes. Hence, the limitation in rupture width seems to control the maximum possible rupture length for these events. The different behaviour of strike-slip and dip-slip earthquakes can be explained by rupture dynamics and geological fault growth. If faults are segmented, with the thickness of the seismogenic layer controlling the length of each segment, strike-slip earthquakes might rupture connected segments more easily than dip-slip events, and thus could produce longer ruptures than dip-slip events of the same width     

Geologically Constrained Probabilistic Mapping of Gold Potential, Baguio District, Philippines

Binary predictor patterns of geological features are integrated based on a probabilistic approach known as weights of evidence modeling to predict gold potential. In weights of evidence modeling, the log _e of the posterior odds of a mineral occurrence in a unit cell is obtained by adding a weight, W ⁺ or W ^– for presence of absence of a binary predictor pattern, to the log _e of the prior probability. The weights are calculated as log _e ratios of conditional probabilities. The contrast, C = W ⁺ – W ^–, provides a measure of the spatial association between the occurrences and the binary predictor patterns. Addition of weights of the input binary predictor patterns results in an integrated map of posterior probabilities representing gold potential. Combining the input binary predictor patterns assumes that they are conditionally independent from one another with respect to occurrences.     

基于随机有限元的堤防渗透失稳概率分析

基于随机有限元理论进行了堤防渗透失稳概率分析,探讨了渗透系数变异性、洪水位变化、堤防几何尺寸变化对渗透失稳概率的影响。结果表明,随着渗透变异系数的增加,渗透失稳概率基本呈线性增长,当变异系数增大到一定程度时渗透失稳概率保持不变,随后略有下降;随着汛期水位的升高,堤防渗透失稳的概率不断变大;渗透失稳概率随着堤防坡度变陡而不断地增加,尤其是在堤防坡比大于1：2.5时,其渗透失稳概率增加得非常快。     

FRP板桩墙变形计算方法探讨

FRP复合板桩弹性模量较低,在使用过程中易产生较大的变形而导致结构无法正常使用,因此设计时要考虑其变形特性。FRP复合板桩的变形包括弯曲变形和剪切变形两部分。通过一种简化的计算FRP板桩变形的方法,使FRP复合板桩设计更为方便。运用该法计算出的最大变形与有限元计算结果较为接近,表明该法具有一定的可靠性。     

基于遗传算法的冻土路基融沉可靠性分析

在冻土路基融沉变形极限状态方程的基础上,从可靠度指标的几何涵义出发,提出了基于遗传算法的冻土路基融沉可靠度指标和失效概率的计算方法。该法是一种全局优化算法,能有效克服传统搜索算法易陷入局部极小值的缺点,不需要对功能函数进行直接转换,避免了功能函数比较复杂时所带来的求解困难,特别适合求解非线性规划问题。以青藏铁路冻土路基的具体实例,验证了本方法的准确性和有效性     

基于力矩与地下水的黏性土剪切带倾角分析

土体剪切破坏时剪切带倾角是一个一直在研究的问题,传统理论解为Mohr-Coulomb解和Roscoe解。从剪切带厚度和剪切力矩角度重新考虑这一问题,在引入力矩分析及土体本构方程的基础上,对剪切带倾角进行了探讨,得出了新的理论解。同时分析了剪切带上的水压力效应,探讨了孔隙水压力对剪切带倾角的影响。     

多模式集成的概率天气预报和气候预测研究进展

基于大气的混沌特性,单一的确定性预报逐步向多值的不确定性概率预报转化已成为一种趋势。本文系统地评述了概率天气预报产生的背景,介绍了概率预报的相关概念及国内外的研究状况,着重讨论了多模式集成的概率预报的两种集成方法,即贝叶斯模式平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)和多元高斯集合核拟合法(Gaussian ensemble kernel dressing,GEKD),并给出了两个例子的概率预报试验结果。利用BMA方法制作的概率预报的方差较小,减小了预报的不确定性,因此预报结果更接近大气的真实值。作为另一种多模式集成方法,多元高斯集合核拟合法回报的地面气温距平均值及趋势的概率预测结果与实测结果基本一致。利用此方法建立了地面气温年代际变化的概率多模式集合预测模型,并从中提取年代际气候变化特征,对东亚季风区年代际预测具有重要应用价值。     

拟静力法边坡稳定分析的改进

拟静力法简单适用,在地震边坡稳定分析中发挥了很大作用,积累了较丰富的经验。传统上滑动体都是按竖向条分的。考虑地震惯性力时,竖向条分在计算地震惯性力和抗滑力矩时存在计算上的不合理,从而使地震惯性力与实际值有误差,抗滑力矩偏小。而考虑地基中的地震荷载时,安全系数的计算结果是不确定的,没有一个客观的最小安全系数计算结果。在分析了误差产生的机理后,对拟静力法的计算进行了改进。算例表明,改进后拟静力法计算结果是合理的。     

滨浅海单波束测深潮汐改正的方法

单波束测深仪在现在的海上地质调查中被广泛应用,潮汐校正是必不可少的内容。我们给出一种利用潮汐预报值进行潮汐改正的方法和过程,并介绍该方法在黄河三角洲环境地质补充调查项目中的应用。     

临江堤防破坏时二线堤防对灾情影响分析

随着治江与海堤建设历史的发展,钱塘江两岸形成许多二线海堤,研究二线堤在临江海堤失效后的作用及其是否保留的必要性对于沿江地区的开发建设是很有意义的。以钱塘江下沙三号大堤为实例,通过比较选择合理的水力计算方法,分析讨论在二线海堤存在与否的不同条件下保护区的受灾水情及二线堤的失效概率等问题。