Taguchi design-based seismic reliability analysis of geostructures

This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the seismic reliability of geostructures in an optimal way. Taguchi design of experiments are adopted to find the most efficient and cost-effective combination of material properties in the uncertainty domain. Twelve uniform and mixed design models are tested. A polynomial-based response surface meta-model is built for each one and the accuracy of perdition is examined using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. A two-dimensional gravity dam is used as a vehicle for probabilistic transient analyses. The ground motion record-to-record variability is added as well using over one hundred earthquake records selected based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Dynamic sensitivity of epistemic random variables are evaluated for the first time. Finally, an efficient and practical procedure is proposed in order to determine the reliability index of the geostructures. This approach, in fact, can be generalised for any type of engineering structures dealing with multi-hazard problems.     

Evidence of marine mammal predation of the European eel (Anguilla anguilla L.) on its marine migration

Temperature and depth logging tags were implanted into adult eels released on Atlantic west coasts of France and Ireland to study their oceanic migration behavior. For three of the tags, 25 to 256 days after release there was a dramatic rise in temperature from 10 °C to 36 °C and the dive profile changed from depths of 300–1000 m to repeated ascents to the surface. This indicated that the eels carrying the tags had been eaten by a mammalian predator. Two of the tags had sufficient sampling rate to resolve the dives in detail. They recorded a total of 91 dives to maximum depths of 250–860 m lasting 11–12 min and with surface intervals of 5–7 min. More than two thirds of the dives included a rapid descent from approximately 500 m to 600–700 m. From this we infer that the predator was most likely a deep-diving toothed whale. The dives logged while the tags were inside the predator revealed that the temperature usually decreased during dives, and increased again during surface periods. The temperature drops during dives were probably caused by the ingestion of prey or water. These observations provide insights into the behavior of toothed whales foraging in the mesopelagic zone.     

Controls of hydrocarbon generation on the development of expulsion fractures in organic-rich shale: Based on the Paleogene Shahejie Formation in the Jiyang Depression,Bohai Bay Basin,East China

The development of expulsion fractures in organic-rich shale is closely related to hydrocarbon generation and expulsion from kerogen. Organic-rich shales from the upper part of the fourth member and the lower part of the third member of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation in the Jiyang Depression, Bohai Bay Basin, East China, are used as an example. Based on thin sections, SEM and thermal simulation experiments, the characteristics of hydrocarbon generation and the conditions supporting the development of expulsion fractures were explored. The key factors influencing these fractures include the presence of kerogens, their distribution along laminae and around particle boundaries, their exposure to heat and the build-up in pressure due to confinement by low permeability. The development of excess pore fluid pressures and intrinsic low rock fracture strength are the main influencing factors. Pressurization by rapid generation of hydrocarbon provides impetus for fracture initiation and cause bitumen to migrate quickly. The shale laminae results in distinctly lower fracture strength laminae-parallel than laminae-normal and this directs the formation of new fractures in the direction of weakness. When pore fluid pressure increases, maximum and minimum principal effective stresses decrease by different proportions with a larger reduction in the maximum principal effective stress. This increases the deviatoric stress and reduces the mean stress, thus driving the rock towards failure. Moreover, the tabular shape of the kerogen aids the generation of hydrocarbon and the initiation of expulsion fractures from the tip and edge. The resulting fractures extend along the laminae when the tensile strength is lower in the vertical direction than in the horizontal direction. Particle contact boundaries are weak and allow fractures to expand around particles and to curve as the stress/strength regime changes. When pore fluid pressure fields at different fracture tips overlap, fractures will propagate and interconnect, forming a network. This paper could provide us more detailed understanding of the forming processes of expulsion fractures and better comprehension about hydrocarbon expulsion (primary migration) in source rocks.     

台风Haitang(0505)登陆过程地形影响的数值模拟试验

以2005年严重影响我国的登陆台风Haitang为研究对象,在用MM5模式成功模拟台风登陆前后路径、强度、降水以及结构特征的基础上,通过地形敏感性试验,分析了地形对台风的影响及其机理。结果表明:台风在经过台湾及其后在福建登陆期间的异常路径是地形诱生低压发生发展的结果;在降水强度上东部沿海特殊地形对台风北侧东南气流的辐合抬升使得暴雨增幅度1倍以上;地形对台风强度也有一定影响,约为4～5hPa。通过对有无地形影响时台风结构的比较发现地形影响主要在低层,使得高度场分裂两个中心,低层台风主体受山脉阻挡在位置上落后于高层。分析还发现台风登陆前夕移动方向西侧相当位温向西倾斜也可能与地形有关。     

Behaviour of hatchery‐reared and wild‐caught 4th and 5th stage American lobsters,Homarus americanus

Behavioural deficiencies in 4th and 5th stage hatchery‐reared lobsters were examined using time budget analysis and predator trials. Hatchery‐reared 4th stage lobsters were found to behave differently than wild‐caught lobsters and differences existed between hatchery‐reared lobsters from different sources. Local hatchery‐reared 4th stage lobsters spent less time on shelter and suffered higher predator rates in laboratory trials than both wild‐caught 4th stage and lobsters reared in a hatchery in Maine. Fifth stage hatchery‐reared lobsters spent significantly more time in shelter than their wild‐caught counterparts. These differences may be attributable to the lack of development of proper predator‐avoidance behaviour and need to be understood and corrected to maximise the effect of enhancement projects.     

半连续培养下东海原甲藻和中肋骨条藻种群生长过程与种间竞争研究

采用半连续培养方法研究了温度和营养盐(N和P)限制对中国东海2种重要赤潮生物东海原甲藻和中肋骨条藻生长及种间竞争的影响。结果表明,东海原甲藻在20℃和25℃时生长状态良好,具有明显的指数增长期,15℃时细胞生长明显受到影响;中肋骨条藻具有较广的温度适应性,15~25℃时均具有明显的指数增长期。东海原甲藻可以忍受低营养盐环境并种群增长,而中肋骨条藻细胞增长需要较丰富的营养盐。在营养盐充足的环境里中肋骨条藻具有竞争优势,相反,在营养盐限制的环境中,东海原甲藻是竞争的优胜者。实验结果与东海原甲藻赤潮爆发现场的环境调查结果基本一致,可以作为解释东海原甲藻赤潮形成原因的依据。     

Wave run-up on bermed coastal structures

Reliable estimation of wave run-up is required for the effective and efficient design of coastal structures when flooding or wave overtopping volumes are an important consideration in the design process. In this study, a unified formula for the wave run-up on bermed structures has been developed using collected and existing data. As data on berm breakwaters was highly limited, physical model tests were conducted and the run-up was measured. Conventional governing parameters and influencing factors were then used to predict the dimensionless run-up level with 2% exceedance probability. The developed formula includes the effect of water depth which is required in understanding the influence of sea level rise and consequent changes of wave height to water depth ratio on the future hydraulic performance of the structures. The accuracy measures such as RMSE and Bias indicated that the developed formula is more accurate than the existing formulas. Additionally, the new formula was validated using field measurements and its superiority was observed when compared to the existing prediction formulas. Finally, the new design formula incorporating the partial safety factor was introduced as a design tool for engineers.     

Scales of predator detection behavior and escape in Fissurella limbata: A field and laboratory assessment

The consumptive effects of predators are widely acknowledged, but predation can also impact prey populations through non‐consumptive effects (NCEs) such as costly antipredator behavioral responses. The magnitude of antipredator behavioral responses by prey is determined by an assessment of risk using sensory cues, which in turn is modulated by the environmental context. We studied the detection behavior and escape response of the keyhole limpet Fissurella limbata from the predatory sea star Heliaster helianthus. Through laboratory and field experimental trials, we quantified the distance and time of predator detection behavior by the prey, and measured their active escape responses when elicited. We found that predator detection by the limpet was chiefly mediated by distance, with experimental individuals capable of detecting predator presence effectively up to distances of at least 50 cm in the field and 70 cm under laboratory conditions. Our results indicate that this prey species is able to evaluate the proximity of its predator and use it as an indication of predation risk; therefore, predator–prey distance appears to be a primary predictor of the magnitude of the antipredator response. Given the tight relationship between predator distance and prey movement and the important role herbivores can play, particularly in this ecosystem, we expect that NCEs will cascade to the patterns of abundance and composition of rocky shore communities through changes in prey foraging behavior under risk.     

Predatory pelagic fishes of the Bijagós Archipelago (Guinea-Bissau) show high overlap in diets dominated by sardinella

Knowledge of trophic interactions between the key components of marine communities is required to understand food-web dynamics and develop ecosystem-based management approaches. In West Africa, where fisheries sustain the livelihoods of a significant part of the human population, this understanding is even more urgent, especially in the face of rapidly expanding fisheries and some stock collapses in the region. We studied the feeding ecology of the Crevalle jack Caranx hippos, West African Spanish mackerel Scomberomorus tritor and Guinean barracuda Sphyraena afra in the Bijagós Archipelago, Guinea-Bissau. These are the most abundant pelagic predatory teleost fishes in the area, but little is known about their ecology despite being species with commercial and recreational value, and they likely also play an important role in various African coastal ecosystems. Our findings show a high degree of dietary overlap among these three predator species, despite some degree of segregation by prey size and type. All three predators depend on Sardinella maderensis as the most important prey, which together with other members of the Clupeidae represented 47–96% of the ingested prey items. There was little difference in the diets of the predators between the dry and rainy seasons. These novel findings suggest a ‘wasp-waist’-structured ecosystem in the Bijagós Archipelago in which S. maderensis is the central small-sized pelagic fish species, and stress the need for an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management in the region, with precautionary measures taken to avoid the overexploitation of clupeids.     

历次核试验进入海洋的~(137)Cs对中国近海影响的模拟研究

1945年以来,世界各主要核国家进行了数千次核试验,这些核试验产生的绝大部分放射性物质通过多种途径进入海洋,对海洋环境造成放射性污染。本文建立了一个准全球海洋的放射性物质输运和扩散数值模式,通过数值模拟手段评估了历史核试验释放的放射性物质137 Cs对中国近海海洋环境的影响。本文借助前人工作评估了核试验释放137Cs进入海洋的途径和总量;通过比较模拟结果与观测资料,表明本文建立的放射性物质模式能够较好地模拟出137Cs在中国近海及其邻近海域的分布情况和随时间演变特征;模拟结果表明中国近海里的137Cs浓度在20世纪50年代中期达到最大,其中吕宋海峡海域137Cs浓度最高,达80.99Bq/m3;进一步分析了2011年3月份日本福岛核事故前中国近海137Cs浓度分布状况,2011年整个中国近海137Cs浓度介于1.0~1.6Bq/m3间,且其浓度垂向分布较均匀,相对封闭的南海浓度略高于其他海域。