俄罗斯东部区域经济发展差异研究

区域差异历来是国内外学者关注的热点问题,区域差异长期扩大、过分悬殊,会产生严重的负面影响;而处于转轨时期的俄罗斯,由于各种矛盾导致经济发展缓慢、区域差异不断扩大。针对俄罗斯东部地区人口分布特点,利用超越对数计量模型深入分析后发现,俄罗斯东部地区科技贡献率都较低,经济增长主要是依靠劳动力和物质资本的投入,并且劳动力对经济贡献率远高出物质资本的贡献率。要转化优势、加快经济增长,就必须把自然资源与科技创新和劳动力发展等结合起来,提高人力与物质资本的直接产出弹性和外溢弹性,是俄罗斯东部、乃至整个俄联邦增强经济实力,在国际贸易中争取最大利益的重要途径之一。     

复合linex对称损失下Lomax分布参数的Bayes估计

研究了在复合linex对称损失下,两参数Lomax分布当刻度参数已知时,其形状参数的Bayes估计及其容许性,并给出了其多层Bayes估计的一般形式。     

Evaluation of an empirical orthogonal function–based method to downscale soil moisture patterns based on topographical attributes

Soil moisture influences many hydrologic applications including agriculture, land management and flood prediction. Most remote‐sensing methods that estimate soil moisture produce coarse resolution patterns, so methods are required to downscale such patterns to the resolutions required by these applications (e.g. 10‐ to 30‐m grid cells). At such resolutions, topography is known to affect soil moisture patterns. Although methods have been proposed to downscale soil moisture based on topography, they usually require the availability of past high‐resolution soil moisture patterns from the application region. The objective of this article is to determine whether a single topographic‐based downscaling method can be used at multiple locations without relying on detailed local observations. The evaluated downscaling method is developed on the basis of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of space–time soil moisture data at a reference catchment. The most important EOFs are then estimated from topographic attributes, and the associated expansion coefficients are estimated on the basis of the spatial‐average soil moisture. To test the portability of this EOF‐based method, it is developed separately using four data sets (Tarrawarra, Tarrawarra 2, Cache la Poudre and Satellite Station), and the relationships that are derived from these data sets to estimate the EOFs and expansion coefficients are compared. In addition, each of these downscaling methods is applied not only for the catchment where it was developed but also to the other three catchments. The results suggest that the EOF downscaling method performs well for the location where it is developed, but its performance degrades when applied to other catchments. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

京津冀地区光伏开发空间适宜性及减排效益评估

京津冀地区作为中国重要的能源消费基地,近年在产业转型与发展中对清洁能源的需求不断增加。光伏发电是中国“十四五”期间加速能源结构转型,早日实现碳中和目标的关键举措与重要抓手。本文以京津冀为研究区,通过构建“地形—气象—成本”光伏开发适宜性综合评价指标体系,计算了光伏开发适宜性指数,刻画出京津冀地区2018年光伏开发适宜性的空间格局特征,进而定量评估不同开发适宜性情景下光伏发电潜力与减排效益。研究表明：① 京津冀地区光伏开发适宜区占到区域总面积的22%,一般适宜区面积最广,“燕山—太行山”一线是适宜区与不适宜区的主要分界线,各类适宜区主要分布在承德、张家口和保定市3个市。 ② 京津冀地区光伏发电发展潜力巨大,开发非常适宜区和较适宜区的年发电潜力是2018年京津冀地区电力消耗的3倍。③ 光伏发电节能减排效果显著。在将非常适宜区和较适宜区全部开发情景下碳减排量为京津冀2018年排放量的47%。④ 土地利用限制、大型输电网络和储能系统是制约光伏发展的主要因素。总体来看,虽然大规模光伏开发仍存在一定的限制条件与技术瓶颈,但在全球气候变化加剧和社会经济发展进入“低碳脱碳”新常态的背景下,京津冀地区的大规模光伏开发仍是助力区域早日实现碳中和目标、优化能源结构和提升人民福祉的重要途径。     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

中国城市地理学近期进展

中国城市地理学的兴盛时期始于70年代中期,至80年代进入历史以来最旺盛的发展时期。城市地理学主要研究城市体系、城市化、城市地域结构与具体的大小城镇。其重要的实践领域则主要通过城市规划和区域规划、国土规划。特别是70年代中期借助于我国城市规划工作的复兴,为城市地理学的发展提供了广阔的实践基础。     

玛曲国家级生态功能保护区分区研究

该文以遥感和地理信息系统作为信息获取与处理工具,并利用2000年TM遥感影像为基础信息源,分析玛曲国家级生态功能保护区特征。根据整体性、发生统一性、生态功能相对一致性、主导性和方便管理等分区原则,依照研究区生态服务功能的不同以及生态系统受胁迫程度的差异,运用自上而下的序列划分法对其进行了两级分区,得出了4个一级区6个二级区的分类系统,针对区域的特征和主要生态问题,提出相应的建设目标和措施。     

A comparison of chironomid biostratigraphy from Lake Vuolep Njakajaure with vegetation, lake-level, and climate changes in Abisko National Park, Sweden

Chironomid remains from the sediment of Lake Vuolep Njakajaure reflect limnological conditions resulting from changing climate and vegetation throughout the Holocene, but do not strictly follow accepted climate trends or the vegetation history based on regional pollen and macrofossil analyses. Chironomid community changes appear to be influenced by organic nutrient input from the surrounding catchment vegetation and lake hydrology, both of which are indirectly responding to some combination of climate change, hypolimnetic oxygen concentration, and changes in basin morphology. The chironomid-based quantitative mean July air-temperature reconstruction differs from other regional quantitative records; this discrepancy is likely related to limnological conditions particular to Lake Vuolep Njakajaure. Comparison of a northern Swedish temperature transfer function and one from western Canada reveals differences in the mean July air-temperature optima of several common taxa, suggesting that the existing conservative estimates of Holocene climate change in northern Sweden may be underestimated due to the limited temperature gradient captured by the Swedish training set.     

双侧向电阻率测井反演算法研究

双侧向测井仪因其激励源的复杂性给其测量数据的反演带来了极大的困难．本文利用变形玻恩（Born）迭代法对轴对称二维非均匀介质中双侧向测井仪的位场数据进行了严格反演．在每一次迭代过程中采用了高效数值模式匹配的正演计算方法,它可半解析地求出反演中所需计算的格林（Green）函数及其偏导数,同时利用所推导出的位场非线性积分方程中积分运算的半解析形式,大大提高了计算效率和反演质量．通过反演实例表明,反演结果与电导率原状剖面吻合较好,并且受噪声影响较小．