Using stochastic state‐space modelling to specify and reduce hydrograph error

A Bayesian post‐processor is used to generate a representation of the likely hydrograph forecast flow error distribution using raingauge and radar input to a stochastic catchment model and its deterministic equivalent. A hydrograph ensemble is so constructed. Experiments are analysed using the model applied to the River Croal in north‐west England. It is found that for rainfall input to the model having errors less than 3mm h^?1, corresponding to about a 15% error in peak flow, the stochastic model outperforms the deterministic model. The range of hydrographs associated with the different model simulations and the measured hydrographs are compared. The significant improvement possible using a stochastic approach is demonstrated for a specific case study, although the mean hydrograph derived using the stochastic model has an error range associated with it. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

内蒙古沙麦钨矿花岗岩岩石地球化学、锆石U-Pb年代学及其地质意义

沙麦钨矿床位于内蒙古东乌旗地区,是该区目前已探明的中型岩浆热液型钨矿床。矿体主要赋存在黑云母二长花岗岩和黑云母二长花岗斑岩中,对这两种花岗质岩石的岩相学、岩石地球化学和LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年代学进行了研究。结果表明,黑云母二长花岗岩锆石U-Pb年龄为135.6±1.6 Ma和136.3±1.8 Ma,黑云母二长花岗斑岩锆石U-Pb年龄为138.6±1.1 Ma,二者侵位时间均为早白垩世。两种花岗质岩体具有富SiO₂(73.73%～78.23%)、高钾钠(Na₂O+K₂O)(7.56%～8.89%)、贫MgO(0.09%～0.20%)、贫CaO(0.51%～0.89%)、贫TiO₂(0.03%～0.12%)的特征,属于过铝质-高钾钙碱性系列;微量元素富集Rb、K、Th和U,相对亏损Sr、Ba、Nb、P和Ti元素,具有强烈的Eu负异常,具有较高的FeO^T含量,较高的FeO^T/MgO和FeO^T/(FeO^T+M...     

海南岛抱伦金矿床双峰式侵入杂岩地球化学特征及对金成矿作用的启示

位于海南岛西南部的抱伦金矿产于尖峰岩体外接触带,与辉绿岩脉密切伴生,这些侵入岩蕴含了金矿成矿作用与岩浆活动-构造演化-成矿体系关系的重要信息。文章报道了对抱伦尖峰花岗岩和辉绿岩开展岩石学、锆石U-Pb年代学、元素和Sm-Nd同位素地球化学研究的成果。本次工作获得了尖峰花岗岩的LA-ICP-MS方法锆石U-Pb年龄为(234.9±2.8)Ma,与辉绿岩构成双峰式侵入杂岩组合。辉绿岩属亚碱性玄武岩系列,相对富集Th、Nb、Ta等强不相容元素,无Nb、Ta、Ti亏损,显示与富集洋中脊玄武岩(E-MORB)相似的地球化学特征,其ε_Nd(t)值为4.11,指示了亏损的源区性质;尖峰花岗岩属高钾钙碱性岩系的铝质A型花岗岩,相对富集K、Rb、Th、Ce等元素,相对亏损Sr、Ba、Nb、Ta、P、Ti等元素,其ε_Nd(t)值为-7.61～-7.80,指示了再循环地壳源区。抱伦辉绿岩为交代型地幔降压熔融的产物,而尖峰花岗岩起源于中元古界泥质和杂砂岩地壳源岩于低压、高温环境下的部分熔融,该双峰式侵入杂岩与金成矿作用形成于造山后伸展-减薄构造背景。双峰式侵入杂岩的...     

非差导航卫星实时/事后精密钟差估计

研究了导航卫星精密钟差的估计算法,实现了基于非差载波相位观测值的实时和事后精密卫星钟差的解算,并与IGS分析中心提供的精密钟差产品进行了比较。结果表明,采用自编软件解算的事后精密卫星钟差与IGS最终精密钟差产品具有较好的一致性,其互差仅为0.05ns左右;实时估计结果与CODE提供的事后钟差产品符合较好,二者差异为0.1ns左右。     

内蒙古大青山北石兰哈达石英闪长岩构造环境讨论

内蒙古大青山北石兰哈达地区的晚古生代黑云石英闪长岩,1:20万区域地质调查时将其置于华力西中期第二次侵入体(δo42(2)),现经岩石学、地球化学、同位素年代学研究,认为该石英闪长岩为早二叠世岩浆活动的产物.岩石具高铝、高钾、高钙的特点,A/CNK<1.1,σ在2.05~2.83之间,为高钾钙碱性岩,属Ⅰ型花岗岩类,产干碰撞后的抬升构造环境.岩石稀土总量偏低,LREE富集,δ Eu=0.8~1.0,稀土曲线呈右倾平滑型,其物质来源很可能是源于软流圈的玄武质岩浆与元古宙地壳物质混合作用的结果.     

湖南香花岭花岗岩岩石化学特征及其构造环境

湖南南部燕山早期香花岭岩体主要由铁锂云母二长花岗岩组成。岩石SiO：和K2O平均含量分别为73．72％和4．78％,Na2O＋KO平均8．47％,K2O／Na2O比值平均为1．40,A1：03平均为13．81％。总体属强过饱和铝质钙碱性一碱性花岗岩类。氧化物构造环境判别图解及区域构造演化背景反映香花岭岩体形成于后造山构造环境。     

泥浆护壁灌注桩桩底后压浆技术及其单桩竖向承载力的估算方法

通过国内近年来桩底后压浆的工程实例,介绍了泥浆护壁灌注桩后压浆技术的发展,分析了桩底后压浆技术适应的地质条件和有关技术参数,归纳出单村竖向承载力的估算方法,供初步设计时作为布桩依据。     

基于贝叶斯网络分类的遥感影像变化检测

遥感成像过程中,地面、大气等诸多要素的不确定性和波段之间的相关性等原因影响了分类精度,导致变化检测的不准确性。为了提高分类精度往往需要引入先验知识。贝叶斯网络是一种新的数据表达和推理模型,对数据没有严格的正态分布前提要求,通过动态地调整先验概率密度,能有效提高分类精度。以北京通州地区1996-05-29和2001-05-19两个时相的陆地卫星Landsat TM遥感影像为例,介绍了基于贝叶斯网络的分类算法,并在此基础上实现了两个时相遥感影像的变化检测。实验结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络分类算法的后分类比较变化检测方法是遥感影像变化检测的一种新的有效方法。     

Sedimentary and faunal events revealed by a revised correlation of post‐glacial Hirnantian (Late Ordovician) strata in the Welsh Basin,UK

The discovery of a previously unrecognized unconformity and of new faunas in the type Llandovery area underpins a revised correlation of Hirnantian strata in mid Wales. This has revealed the sedimentary and faunal events which affected the Lower Palaeozoic Welsh Basin during the global rise in sea level that followed the end‐Ordovician glacial maximum and has allowed their interpretation in the context of local and global influences. In peri‐basinal shelfal settings the onset of post‐glacial deepening is recorded by an unfossiliferous, transgressive shoreface sequence (Cwm Clyd Sandstone and Garth House formations) which rests unconformably on Rawtheyan rocks, deformed during an episode of pre‐Hirnantian tectonism. In the deep water facies of the basin centre, this same sequence boundary is now recognized as the contact between fine‐grained, re‐sedimented mudstones and an underlying regressive sequence of turbidite sandstones and conglomerates; it is at a level lower than previously cited and calls into question the established lithostratigraphy. In younger Hirnantian strata, graptolites associated with the newly recognized Ystradwalter Member (Chwefri Formation) demonstrate that this distal shelf unit correlates with the persculptus graptolite‐bearing Mottled Mudstone Member of the basinal succession. Together these members record an important macrofaunal recolonization of the Welsh Basin and mark a key event in the post‐glacial transgression. Further deepening saw the establishment of a stratified water column and the imposition of anoxic bottom water conditions across the basin floor. These post‐glacial Hirnantian events are consistent with the re‐establishment of connections between a silled Welsh Basin and the open Iapetus Ocean. However, a comparison with other areas suggests that each event records a separate deepening episode within a pulsed glacio‐eustatic transgression, while also reflecting changes in post‐glacial climate and patterns of oceanic circulation and associated biotic flux. British Geological Survey © NERC 2009. All rights reserved.     

Post‐orogenic sediment drape in the Northern Pyrenees explained using a box model

The transition to a post‐orogenic state in mountain ranges has been identified by a change from active subsidence to isostatic rebound of the foreland basin. However, the nature of the interplay between isostatic rebound and sediment supply, and their impact on the topographic evolution of a range and foreland basin during this transition, has not been fully investigated. Here, we use a box model to explore the syn‐ to post‐orogenic evolution of foreland basin/thrust wedge systems. Using a set of parameter values that approximate the northern Pyrenees and the neighbouring Aquitaine foreland basin, we evaluate the controls on sediment drape over the frontal parts of the retro‐wedge following cessation of crustal thickening. Conglomerates preserved at approximately 600‐m elevation, which is ~ 300 m above the present mountain front in the northern Pyrenees are ca. 12 Ma, approximately 10 Myrs younger than the last evidence of crustal thickening in the wedge. Using the model, this post‐orogenic sediment drape is explained by the combination of a sustained, high sediment influx from the range into the basin relative to the efflux out of the basin, combined with cessation of the generation of accommodation space through basin subsidence. Post‐orogenic sediment drape is considered a generic process that is likely to be responsible for elevated low‐gradient surfaces and preserved remnants of continental sedimentation draping the outer margins of the northern Pyrenean thrust wedge.