GPS观测数据的建模与仿真

在研究GPS系统的基础上建立了GPS观测数据的仿真模型,编制了相应的计算机程序。仿真模型包括卫星参数模型、动力学模型和观测误差模型。仿真计算表明,卫星参数模型和动力学模型真实地反映了卫星的运动规律;误差模型反映了观测环境对信号传播的影响。同时可以调节和选择仿真模型的参数,仿真选择了地面静态和地面低动态的观测数据,这对于论证GPS定轨、导航算法、设计GPS接收机等有一定的实用价值。     

城市空气质量数值预报的不确定性与可预报性

主要综述了数据误差、随机误差和模式物理误差所造成的城市空气质量数值预报的不确定性,简要介绍分析预报不确定性的统计方法。并对由内在随机性和外在误差引起的可预报性问题进行了分析讨论     

三对角系统的最佳向后扰动分析

用一种新方法研究了三对角方程组及对称三对角方程组计算解的最佳向后扰动分析。由于这两类方程组的系数矩阵具有特殊结构 ,因而本文结果不能从已有结果直接导出。所用方法亦可用于研究 KKT及 SQD等结构线性系统的最佳向后扰动分析。     

Historical record of heavy metals in a highly contaminated Mediterranean deposit: The Besòs prodelta

The Besòs prodelta, located around a highly populated area, receives the discharge of the Besòs River, one of the most contaminated rivers discharging into the Mediterranean sea. The record of heavy metals accumulated in this prodelta is studied to assess the sedimentary behaviour and the history of the anthropogenic heavy metals in the area.

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dated sediments have allowed the identification of the sedimentation patterns and the elaboration of dated heavy metals and cenospheres profiles, which reflected the evolution of the anthropogenic impact in this marine environment. Sediments accumulated during the 18th and 19th centuries were already affected by a moderate heavy metal contamination. This contamination increased drastically in the sediments accumulated during the last decades. This data is well correlated with the increase in industrialisation, population and energy consumption in the Besòs drainage basin during the last century.     

A note on the applicability of log-Gumbel and log-logistic probability distributions in hydrological analyses: II. Assumed pdf

Abstract

Applicability of log-Gumbel (LG) and log-logistic (LL) probability distributions in hydrological studies is critically examined under real conditions, where the assumed distribution differs from the true one. The set of alternative distributions consists of five two-parameter distributions with zero lower bound, including LG and LL as well as lognormal (LN), linear diffusion analogy (LD) and gamma (Ga) distributions. The log-Gumbel distribution is considered as both a false and a true distribution. The model error of upper quantiles and of the first two moments is analytically derived for three estimation methods: the method of moments (MOM), the linear moments method (LMM) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). These estimation methods are used as methods of approximation of one distribution by another distribution. As recommended in the first of this two-part series of papers, MLM turns out to be the worst method, if the assumed LG or LL distribution is not the true one. It produces a huge bias of upper quantiles, which is at least one order higher than that of the other two methods. However, the reverse case, i.e. acceptance of LN, LD or Ga as a hypothetical distribution, while the LG or LL distribution is the true one, gives the MLM bias of reasonable magnitude in upper quantiles. Therefore, one should avoid choosing the LG and LL distributions in flood frequency analysis, especially if MLM is to be applied.     

雷达测雨误差及其对淮河流域径流模拟的影响

将雷达测雨数据与分布式水文模型相耦合进行径流过程模拟,分析雷达测雨误差及其径流过程模拟效果,研究雷达测雨误差对径流过程模拟的影响效应.在对淮河流域气象中心业务化的5种淮河流域雷达测雨数据进行误差分析的基础上,采用雷达测雨数据驱动HEC-HMS水文模型,模拟分析淮河息县水文站以上流域2007年7月1-10日强降雨集中期的径流过程.结果表明:利用雷达测雨数据的径流模拟结果与实测资料的模拟结果基本吻合,各种雷达测雨数据误差经过HEC-HMS水文模型传递后,误差明显减小.联合校准法对应的模拟效果最好,过程流量相对误差NBs'和洪峰流量相对误差Z'分别为-20.2%和-13.3%.     

Estimation of the temporal autocorrelation structure by the collocation technique with an emphasis on soil moisture studies

Abstract

The collocation technique has become a popular tool in oceanography and hydrology for estimating the error variances of different data sources such as in situ sensors, models and remote sensing products. It is also possible to determine calibration constants, for example to account for an off-set between the data sources. So far, the temporal autocorrelation structure of the errors has not been studied, although it is known that it has detrimental effects on the results of the collocation technique, in particular when calibration constants are also determined. This paper shows how the (triple) collocation estimators can be adapted to retrieve the autocovariance functions; the statistical properties as well as the structural deficencies are described. The coupling between the autocorrelation of the error and the estimation of calibration constants is studied in detail, due to its importance for analysing temporal changes. In soil moisture applications, such time variations can be induced, for example, by seasonal changes in the vegetation cover, which affect both models and remote sensing products. The limitations of the proposed technique associated with these considerations are analysed using remote sensing and in situ soil moisture data. The variability of the inter-sensor calibration and the autocovariance are shown to be closely related to temporal patterns of the data.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Zwieback, S., Dorigo, W., and Wagner, W., 2013. Estimation of the temporal autocorrelation structure by the collocation technique with an emphasis on soil moisture studies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1729–1747.     

多网重力数据联合平差和系统误差改正

华北地区现行的地震重力监测网由于独立联测, 自成体系, 绝对控制点较少, 获得的重力场动态变化图像在绝对控制较弱的地区会产生畸变, 也不能有效的消除仪器标定系统所引起的测量误差。 本文以华北大网作为控制网, 结合绝对重力点进行联合平差计算, 使各省区地震重力监测网平差精度提高了(0~4)×10^-8 m/s², 平差起算基准相统一, 绝对控制较弱的地区畸变减小。 采用相关系数检验法, 对华北地区各省区地震重力监测网2010年二期重力平差计算结果进行检验, 部分重力点位系统误差高达60×10^-8 m/s², 经过系统误差改正后, 重力场动态变化趋于一致。 经过各项改正后, 华北地区2010年重力场动态差分图像对地震前兆具有更好的反映。     

利用P波初动测定地震计水平分向的定向偏差

基于P波质点振动方式和初动方向,设计一种测定地震计水平分向定向偏差的方法。通过旋转两水平分向波形获取P波优势能量方向,将旋转角度与地震方位角进行比较,得到地震计水平分向偏离正北方向的位置。再以地震计垂直向初动和已知震中确定台站初始速度的方向（即向源或离源方向）,依此初始速度方向在地震计坐标系中的位置,与水平分向实际记录初动符号所代表的方向进行确认,即可认定地震计水平分向的极性,进而确定地震计水平分向任一极性偏离的角度。     

全国自动地震速报系统评估

对全国自动地震速报系统进行了初步的评估. 通过2010年1月1日—2011年12月31日的自动定位结果与全国正式目录的对比, 分别得出了3套自动定位系统总体误差以及全国和全球的误差插值图, 并对结果进行了总结. 同时, 还针对3套自动定位系统的漏报和误报情况进行了分析和讨论. 总体来说, 现阶段自动地震速报系统整体上对于首都圈地区M≥3.0, 国内其它地区M≥4.0(部分台站稀疏的西部地区M≥5.0), 国外M≥7.0的地震基本可以达到全面覆盖的程度, 可以作为正式地震速报的参考, 对于建立“自动报—正式报”的两级地震速报制度能提供有力的技术支撑.