Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

Molecular identification of bloom-forming species Phaeocystis globosa(Prymnesiophyta)and its dispersal based on rDNA ITS sequence analysis

Abstract-The colony-forming Phaeocystis species are causative agents of dense bloom occurrences incoastal waters worldwide. It is difficult to separate them because of the different morphologies associatedwith their colonial stages. In this study we applied molecular approaches to analyze the genetic variationof Phaeocystis globosa and Phaeocystis pouchetii from several geogrtaphic regions, and to assist in tracingthe dispersal of bloom-forming Phaeocystis species in coastal waters of China. The Sequences of the inter-nal transcribed sacers (ITS1 and ITS2) of rDNA and the 5.8S ribosomal RNA gene of Phaeocystisstrains were determined. Sequence comparison shows that P.globosa was the most divergent toP. pouchetii, exhibiting sequence divergence higher than 0.08. However, lower genetic divergences ex-isted between strains of P.globosa. The sequence comparison of the Phaeocystis rDNA ITS clearlyshows that the species isolated from the southeast coast of China is identified as P. globosa rather thanP. cf. po     

Simulation of Pollutant Transport in Marmaris Bay

The circulation pattern and the pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay are simulated by the developed three-dimensional baroclinic model. The Marmaris Bay is located at the Mediterranean Sea coast of Turkey. Since the sp ring tidal range is typically 20- 30 cm, the dominant forcing for the circulation and water exchange is due to the wind action. In the Marmaris Bay, there is sea outfall discharging directly into the bay. and that threats the bay water quality significantly. The current patterns in the vicinity of the outfall have been observed by tracking drogues which are moved by currents at different water depths. In the simulations of pollutant transport, the coliforms-counts is used as the tracer. The model provides realistic predictions for the circulation and pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay. The transport model component predictions well agree with the results of a laboratory model study.