Public climate-change skepticism,energy preferences and political participation

Many studies have shown a general decline of public concern about climate change or vice versa a rise in public climate-change skepticism, in particular in the U.S. and other Anglo-Saxon countries. There is a vivid debate on whether this is a global phenomenon, on which factors explain the decline, and on the broader societal implications of these trends in the context of the transformation toward a low-carbon society. We add to this literature by presenting the results of a recent general population survey in Germany in which we looked for systematic linkages between public climate-change skepticism on one hand, and energy preferences and political participation on the other. Germany is an interesting testbed as it is currently involved in a large-scale restructuring of its system of energy supply toward renewable energy sources (the “Energiewende”). Our results indicate that climate-change skepticism has not diffused widely in Germany, but that it correlates with less support of renewable energy sources. However, skepticism correlates negatively with political participation, and there is no strong political outlet for public climate-change skepticism in Germany. Alternative potential barriers for the successful implementation of the “Energiewende” are also discussed.     

Climate variability, vegetation productivity and people at risk

Human domination of ecosystems has been pervasive over the last century, with nearly half of Earth's surface transformed by human actions. It is widely accepted that humans appropriate up to 50% of global net primary production (NPP), the energy base of all the trophic levels on the land surface. Yet, despite the important role of vegetation productivity for defining Earth habitability, the covariation of NPP and human population distribution has not been analyzed in depth. We used recently available satellite-based NPP estimates, along with gridded population at 0.5° resolution, first, to identify the global distribution of human population with reference to average NPP and to the various climatic constraints (temperature, water and cloud cover) that limit NPP, second, to analyze recent trends in global NPP in relation to population trends, and third, to identify populations that are vulnerable to changes in NPP due to interannual variability in climate. Our results indicate that over half of the global human population is presently living in areas with above the average NPP of 490 g C m⁻² year⁻¹. By 1998, nearly 56% of global population lived in regions where water availability strongly influences NPP. Per capita NPP declined over much of Africa between 1982 and 1998, in spite of the estimated increases in NPP over the same period. On average, NPP over 40% of the total vegetated land surface has shown significant correlations with ENSO-induced climate variability affecting over 2.8 billion people.     

In two waters: contemporary evolution of lagoonal and marine white seabream (Diplodus sargus) populations

Brackish water ecosystems are often exposed to wide variations in environmental variables, including temperature and salinity, which may cause strong selective pressures on organisms modifying the genetic patterns of species. The aim of this work was to test whether there is a ‘divergence-with-gene flow’ in coastal lagoon populations of white seabream (Diplodus sargus) (Ria Formosa, S Portugal and Mar Menor, SE Spain) respect to four marine populations, by using partial sequences of cyt b mitochondrial gene and information from nine microsatellite loci. Genetic diversity was highest in both coastal lagoons (Mar Menor and Ria Formosa) considering mitochondrial and nuclear markers. Although some of F_ST population pairwise comparisons were not significant, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVAs) detected differences between groups (coastal lagoon and marine) close to significance. Also, only two haplotypes (Cytb-17 and Cytb-18) were detected in both coastal lagoon sampling sites and these localities (Mar Menor and Ria Formosa) showed the highest number of singletons, some of them with a high number of mutations, as has been already described for other Mar Menor populations (Pomatochistus marmoratus and Holothuria polii). Also, several tests detected significant positive and balancing selection considering mtDNA and microsatellite data. These data support the hypothesis of selection as one of the drivers of the genetic differences found between coastal lagoon and marine populations. The life strategy adopted by Diplodus sargus in coastal lagoons allows it to decrease its mortality rate and improve the heritability of its genes. Also, the increase time spent in coastal lagoons with different temperatures and salinities favours the fitness selection and the maintenance of exclusive haplotypes and genotypes in coastal lagoon inhabitants favouring the ‘divergence-with-gene-flow’.     

长江、黄河和辽河水系中华绒螯蟹野生和养殖群体遗传变异的微卫星分析

我国中华绒螯蟹(以下简称河蟹)养殖主要集中在长江、黄河和辽河流域,经过多年的人工养殖、跨流域引种和增殖放流等活动可能会对其遗传特性造成一定的影响,因此本研究利用29个微卫星标记对3个水系的野生和养殖群体进行了遗传特征分析。结果表明:(1)6个群体均表现出较高的遗传杂合度水平(Ho=0.702—0.744),香农信息指数(I)显示6群体的遗传多样性水平依次为:长江野生长江养殖黄河野生辽河养殖黄河养殖辽河野生。(2)分子方差分析(AMOVA)结果显示,来源于种群内个体间和个体内部的变异分别为14.02%和85.88%,群体间的遗传分化处于较低水平(FST0.05);(3)瓶颈效应和遗传结构分析显示,所有群体近期均经历过有效种群的降低,且6种群内个体的遗传组成混杂。综上所述,三水系野生和养殖群体均具有较高的遗传多样性,长江和黄河野生群体的遗传多样性略高于养殖群体;三水系河蟹野生群体的遗传分化与地理距离具有一定的相关性,长江养殖群体、黄河野生及养殖群体间的遗传分化较小可能与其跨流域引种及养殖群体逃逸造成其种质混杂有关。     

低涡东北部一次暴雨的成因分析

2013年5月15-17日长江下游地区多地出现连续暴雨,数值模式检验显示雨量预报值误差较大。利用常规天气资料、NCEP 0.5°×0.5°格点资料和多普勒雷达资料,对这次暴雨过程进行了成因分析,结果表明:槽前西南气流、低涡切变和深厚湿层提供了有利的大尺度形势背景;低涡东北部产生的暴雨与低层东风急流的扰动和曲率增大密切相关,地面辐合抬升触发了上升运动;700 h Pa切变线和地面中小尺度辐合线的叠加处、925 h Pa水汽通量散度负值中心区都与暴雨区有较好的对应关系;多普勒雷达平均径向速度图像上显示强烈的辐合区,正、负速度区面积比达到1∶3,回波不断在辐合线处生成,下游地区出现"列车效应",强降水时段雷达回波强度为30~40d Bz,小时雨量达到16~20 mm。对比模式预报场,中低层偏东急流量级和气旋性弯曲偏小导致了暴雨区漏报,地面辐合线位置和强度的偏差造成了雨量中心位置的偏差,可通过与实况对比、雷达分析等手段对预报进行订正。     

Spinner dolphins Stenella longirostris off south-west Mauritius: abundance and residency

Spinner dolphins Stenella longirostris longirostris off the south-west coast of Mauritius are subject to ongoing anthropogenic disturbance in the form of daily dolphin tourism, which has intensified since 1998. Abundance of this species was estimated using photo-identification data and mark-recapture analysis. Between April 2008 and June 2010, identification photographs were collected from dolphins occurring along a 30 km length of the coast of south-west Mauritius. A total of 250 groups were encountered over 229 survey days. Mark-recapture analyses were performed on a photographic dataset of more than 8 000 good- and excellent-quality images and 83 animals were identified as distinctively marked individuals. The majority (85.5%) were seen more than once and resightings indicated a resident population. The compiled version of SOCPROG 2.4 was used to investigate the lagged identification rate. The fitted model supported a mostly resident population with additional animals moving in and out of the study area. The estimated abundance of the total population in the study area ranged between 138 and 399 individuals. Our results can be used for monitoring the population for fluctuations and for encouraging both the enforcement of laws regarding dolphin watching and the development of further means of management needed to ensure the long-term presence of this population.     

光源发散角对DPC偏振定标的影响分析及验证

多角度偏振成像仪(DPC)是一种多角度、多光谱具备偏振测量功能的大视场偏振遥感器。偏振定标光源的发散角与DPC像元对应的视场角匹配一致,是提升DPC实验室偏振定标精度的关键因素之一。通过比较实验室偏振定标与在轨定标的状态差异,参考DPC在轨运行光学系统的成像原理,通过微分运算方式,建立一种偏振定标光源的发散角与单像元视场角匹配的模型,分析结果给出了光源的发散角应大于0.14°才能满足DPC全视场的偏振定标要求。以490 nm偏振通道为例,设计了采用可调光谱积分球替代0.125°发散角扩束镜平行光源方案,验证所建立模型和分析结果的合理性。结果表明,DPC的线偏振度测量值和理论预测值间的平均差异由1.26×10–2减小至4.4×10–3,说明所建立模型和采用可调光谱积分球作为偏振定标光源方案可用于DPC的实验室偏振定标。     

基于多源空间数据的山区人口分布模拟

人口资源是制约山区发展的关键因素,其分布状况在一定程度上反映和决定了山区的资源环境安全状况和社会经济发展水平.在分析川滇黔接壤地区山区人口分布影响因素的基础上结合已有方法,构建了适合山区人口数据空间化的模型.以2007年人口统计数据为基础,以居民点作为人口分布指示因子,利用GIS软件工具,分析了居民点分布与地貌形态、土地利用、道路以及水系间的关系.基于多源空间数据融合的思想,引进了居民点缓冲区的概念,以较客观的赋权方式确定影响因子权重,实现山区人口统计数据的空间化.结果表明,通过融合产生的人口密度与乡镇级人口密度的相关性均在0.80以上,结果可靠,为进一步分析山区人口分布格局提供了重要的基础数据.     

Chicago: Patterns of the Metropolis

Abstract

Thematic maps reveal the geography of any area. A series of such maps introduces the growth, landforms, railroad lines, African-American population, population density, and population change in Chicago. Many of these patterns have been laid down in past times, but they also influence present and future trends.