人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调性测度及优化——以南昌市为例

人口与土地是城镇化的重要组成部分,分析二者之间状态演化对促进城市健康发展具有重要意义。在界定人口城镇化与土地城镇化二者概念基础上,基于人口构成、人口素质、人口生活、城镇规模、城镇投入、城镇产出等构建评价指标体系,并通过耦合协调模型对省会型城市南昌市2002~2011年两者之间的协调关系进行测度和分析,结果表明：① 人口城镇化指数与土地城镇化指数呈波动变化并持续上涨,城镇发展由土地滞后型向人口滞后型转变;② 人口城镇化与土地城镇化的协调状态由失调衰退区向过渡协调区演进,发展类型则由高度不协调状态向勉强协调状态过渡。在此基础上分析了南昌市人口城镇化速度滞后于土地城镇化速度的原因,指出两者关系主要受到城市发展外在制度与内在基础的共同作用,并认为构建人口与土地城镇化双重优化路径是协调人口城镇化与土地城镇化同步发展的有效途径。     

中国流动人口的省际迁移模式、集疏格局与市民化路径

系统回顾了中国流动人口的省际变动与集疏格局,包括总体特征与演化趋势,基于迁出地和迁入地属性差异的省际流动人口模式以及基于城市规模的流动人口分布特征,采用趋势分析和马尔科夫链方法预测了中国省际流动人口的空间迁移趋势,由此提出了中国流动人口的市民化路径与建议如下：① 人口的跨区域流动重塑着中国的人口空间格局,东部地区应审慎而稳妥地推进市民化;②积极稳妥地推进中西部地区的城镇化进程,重点推进省内流动人口的就近市民化;③ 不同地区要制定不同的政策,因地制宜地推进市民化进程。     

土地集约利用评价中适度指标标准化方法改进研究——以人口密度指标为例

基于极值标准化等传统方法开展的土地集约利用多因素综合评价中,评价因子与评价结果为线性相关关系难以妥善处理适度指标,以边际效用递减规律为理论基础,在分析适度指标标准化建模需求基础上,构建了基于二次函数的标准化处理方法,并以重庆市人口密度指标为例开展了实证研究。研究表明：适度指标对评价值的贡献符合边际效用递减规律;基于二次函数的标准化方法解决了适度指标在不同区间作用方向不同的需求;实证研究表明,改进方法较传统方法评价结论更符合实际,政策启示更符合重庆市五大功能区战略中的人口调控策略。     

基于城镇用地和最小时间成本的城市影响区划分及其人口分析

以宁蒙沿黄地带为案例,基于城镇用地和最小交通时间成本划分城市影响区,分区统计影响区人口,将其与城市行政区非农人口的增速差进行统计分析。结果表明：基于城镇用地和最小交通时间成本的城市影响区划分边界更接近于行政区界;考虑城镇用地后大城市影响区扩展,考虑最小交通时间成本后小城市影响区相对扩展;以东胜区-伊旗为中心的地区非农人口增速始终显著高于潜在服务人口增速,这类城市应增强对周边县的扩散作用;以大武口-惠农区为中心的地区非农人口增速始终显著低于潜在服务人口增速,这类城市应加速产业与非农人口集聚。     

基于农户调研的中国农村居民点空心化程度研究

基于中国范围的乡村人居环境调研数据,分析了中国农村宅基地空心现象。结果表明：① 中国农村宅基地空心化严重,93.5%的调研村庄有空心化现象,平均空心化率达到10.2%。② 省域农村宅基地空心化差异明显,其中华北、华东、华中地区普遍较高;③ 多种因素导致农村宅基地空心化,认为是“外出务工”、“户口迁移”、“房屋年久失修”及“一户多宅” 的受访者分别占39.94%,19.51%,25.73%和14.82%。④ 中国农村空心化宅基地再利用潜力巨大,但再利用难度大,需要从改革城乡二元体制和乡村空间重构的角度进行空心村整治。     

基于灯光数据的人口空间化

社会经济数据是研究城市发展的重要因子,而传统的社会经济数据由于与空间坐标不统一,对城市发展的空间变化难以提供有力的支持。本文利用DMSP/OLS灯光数据,基于生态控制线,通过回归运算制定深圳市2010年人口指数模型,得到深圳市2010年1 km~2人口空间化图,有利于对深圳市人口的空间分布特征进行分析,为城市的绿色发展提供依据。     

Filter-feeding ascidians (Ciona intestinalis) in a shallow cove: Implications of hydrodynamics for grazing impact

The grazing impact by a dense population of filter-feeding ascidians Ciona intestinalis on horizontally flowing water (driven by density circulation) in a shallow cove (Kertinge Nor, Denmark) has been described and quantified by means of a simple one-dimensional numerical model. The agreement between observations and modelled predictions was satisfactory. The applied numerical model has the following analytical solution in the idealized case: Cx = C₀e^−(fx/Y₂), where C_x = algal concentration at a downstream distance x, C₀ = initial concentration, f = F/v_c; F = area specific population filtration rate; v_c = current velocity; Y₂ = depth of mixed layer below halocline. The numerical model quantifies the actual grazing impact while the analytical model illustrates the governing physics in well-known terms. To describe situations with no current (i.e. stagnant water), we performed simulation studies in the laboratory and measured vertical profiles of algal cells over filter-feeding C. intestinalis. The results showed that phytoplankton became reduced in a near-bottom water layer of 20–30 cm thickness. Such water layers may develop in stagnant water (calm days and no advective currents), thus uncoupling the pelagic food and the filter feeders which within a short time will experience extremely meagre food conditions.     

Zooplanktonic Communities of the Divergence Zone in the Northwestern Alboran Sea

Abstract. Using principal component analysis, the zooplanktonic communities of the divergence zone in the northwestern sector of the Alboran Sea were studied. The study was based on 35 vertical trawls in the 200 metres superficial level. The two first components account for 65 % of the total variance. The first component is a contrast between a warm water coastal community (characterized by low specific diversity and the abundance of Cladocera and Copepoda such as Acartia clausi, Centropages chierchiae and Temora stylifera) and a community of cold subsuperficial water distinguished by high specific diversity and a low number of individuals, one of its most characteristic elements being the eggs and larval stages of the Conostomasidae Maurolicus muelleri. The second component appears to be associated with an ecotone between the communities previously cited, and with a specific grouping (Rhincalanus nasutus, Eucalanus monachiis, Pseudocalanus elongatus, Temora longicornis , etc.) resulting from the peripheral displacement of subsuperficial elements brought to the surface by the cyclonic circulation of water masses between the Atlantic current and the Spanish coast.