GIS在人口重心迁移研究中的应用

利用GIS技术，建立甘肃少数民族人口重心研究的图形数据库和人口统计数据库，计算各主要民族人口重心及其移动轨迹，制作人口重心移动专题图件，并在此基础上对少数民族人口重心移动规律展开讨论。     

环渤海地区土地利用变化的驱动力分析

1985到1995年间,环渤海地区占总面积30%的土地发生了利用方式的变化,耕地变化是其核心类型。耕地变化的主要流向依次为农村居住用地、林草地、城市居住建设用地以及果园和水域。本文通过对耕地流向及其与人口变化、农业经济发展的关系等进行分析,确认土地管理政策、人均居住用地的增长、农业生产结构调整以及城市扩张是该区土地利用变化的主要驱动因素     

On the use of orthogonally stepwise regression discrimination for predicting copper ore deposits of Dongchuan type in central Yunnan, China

In the prediction of ore deposits, a series of geological, geochemical, and geophysical characters are used to describe the model of ore deposits. The problem is how to use the characters of known ore deposits to establish the model and to look for the target areas with similar geological environments. This can be done with a powerful mathematical tool—discriminant analysis. Nevertheless, there generally are too many geological variables to describe a class of ore deposits. Some of them are discrete, and the others are continuous. It is also difficult to know their distributions. A satisfactory method of discrimination has not been developed for such a complicated case. For this reason, we introduce a new method of orthogonally stepwise discrimination. We used this method to predict copper ore deposits of Dongchuan type in central Yunnan, China, with satisfactory results.     

菲尔德斯半岛潮间带生态系统中的食物网

菲尔德斯半岛潮间带食物链是较简单的 ,一般说来在不利环境条件下的生物群落只有很少的消费者和较少的营养级。食物链中主要的生产者是大型底栖藻类 ,主要消费者是腹足类和石鳖 ,棘皮动物中的海胆与海星 ,甲壳动物 ,鱼和海鸟 ,海鸟和鱼占营养级的上层 ,草食软体动物位于中间营养级 ,大量的固着藻类 -叶状藻类、皮壳状藻类构成营养级的底层。观测实验表明 :(1 )海鸟和鱼类减少了草食性软体动物和肉食性螺类的数量 ;(2 )肉食性腹足类减少了草食性软体动物和固着无脊椎动物的数量 ;(3 )草食性软体动物减少了叶状藻类的数量并影响到皮壳状藻类的数量 ,在不清除消费者的实验中 ,皮壳状藻类显示出与其它固着生物竞争空间的优势。作者观察了并在本文中描述了异性底质与消费者对固着生物多样性的影响。壳状藻类在低潮带岩石表面占优势 ,其它的固着生物 (叶状藻类与固着无脊椎动物 )占据洞穴和狭缝。同质岩石表面固着生物的种类与数量低于异质性的岩石表面。清除岩石表面的消费者后叶状藻类与其它固着无脊椎动物的种数就超过皮壳状藻类     

Measuring molecular variation in zooplankton populations: DNA extraction from smallDaphnia species

We present methods developed for the small-sizedDaphnia species,D. galeata, D. hyalina, D. cucullata, and their hybrids, which facilitate the use of DNA variation in population studies. Described are large-scale production of material from single genotypes ofDaphnia and subsequent extraction of total DNA. The average DNA yields ranged between 6 µg per gram wet weight (D. cucullata) and 12 µg per gram wet weight (D. galeata). For comparison, the large-sized speciesD. pulex was tested and yielded an average of 28 µg DNA per gram wet weight. The DNA isolated in this manner lends itself well to molecular genetic techniques suited for population studies.Reprint requests to B. Streit.     

Model-free estimation from spatial samples: A reappraisal of classical sampling theory

A commonly held view among geostatisticians is that classical sampling theory is inapplicable to spatial sampling because spatial data are dependent, whereas classical sampling theory requires them to be independent. By comparing the assumptions and use of classical sampling theory with those of geostatistical theory, we conclude that this view is both false and unfortunate. In particular, estimates of spatial means based on classical sampling designs require fewer assumptions for their validity, and are therefore more robust, than those based on a geostatistical model.     

Exploring Cities through a Population Ageing Matrix: a spatial and temporal analysis of older adult population trends in Perth,Australia

In an increasingly urbanised and ageing world the spatial distribution of an older population is a matter of growing scholarly and policy interest. Much of the research on this topic has tended to draw on one of two key measures: structural ageing, or the ratio of older cohorts to the rest of the population, or numeric ageing, which simply counts the number of older people without reference to the rest of the population. This paper argues that, on their own, these measures have limitations, and that considerable value lies in assessing the interplay between numeric and structural ageing measures. The population ageing matrix, a theoretical framework that classifies the demographic dynamics of population ageing across metropolitan areas, is presented and examined through the case study of Perth, Western Australia. The value of the matrix to reveal patterns and trends missed by analyses of single measures is investigated and areas that are experiencing changes in the composition and size of the ageing demographic are identified. The paper also reflects on the implications of these findings for policy and planning.     

Ageing research in Australia: reflecting on Graeme Hugo’s four decades of contribution

ABSTRACT

Globally, population ageing is one of the most pressing social and policy issues faced today. Over the next two decades, Australian society will face dramatic increases in the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over, as the baby boomers move into older age and fertility levels remain low. Yet population ageing is not a surprising or new trend—demographic changes in the age profile of a population tend to occur incrementally rather than suddenly. As a demographer and geographer, Graeme Hugo drew attention to this trend in Australia’s population more than three decades ago. Throughout Graeme Hugo’s vast breadth of work over the past 40 years, there has been a consistent thread of demographic analysis and academic thought associated with the ageing of Australia’s population. This paper focuses on Hugo’s contributions to academic thought and policy on Australia’s ageing population and the challenges associated with this for both service delivery and health policy as Australian society moves into an unprecedented era of population ageing.     

应用全型散度方程诊断鄂东北一次梅雨强降雨

利用0.5°×0.5°GFS分析资料和常规气象观测资料,分析2013年7月5—7日鄂东北梅雨连续暴雨过程。结果表明:1降雨具有比较明显的日变化,夜间加强,白天减弱;鄂东北低层辐合也有与降雨强度一致的日变化特点。2散度变率在高层出现正值、中低层出现负值有利于降雨加强,且这种变化比暴雨发生稍有提前。一般傍晚散度变率在低层即出现负值,这有利于夜间低层辐合加强。3利用全型散度方程2项组合诊断发现,虽然非线性平衡方程偏差项确是散度变率的主要项,但在降雨开始阶段只有余项在低层出现较为明显的负值。4利用全型散度方程4项组合诊断发现,边界层水平风场辐合是降雨启动因子之一;非地转平衡项在近地面出现较大正值对于降雨减弱有较好的指示;与垂直运动有关的项在降雨峰值阶段中层负值较大。     

重庆一次暴雨过程的诊断分析

为揭示2012年5月11-12日重庆暴雨过程的发生发展机制,寻找重庆地区暴雨预报方法,利用国家卫星气象中心的降水量产品数据集和NCEP格点再分析资料,对这次暴雨进行了天气形势分析,并从动力和水汽条件、水汽螺旋度和水汽散度通量及不稳定指数等方面进行了诊断分析。结果表明,短波槽东移南下和西南涡东移北上是造成此次暴雨过程的主要原因;高空槽前脊后的正涡度平流,有利于大气的抬升运动;中层(700 h Pa)的西南暖湿气流为此次暴雨过程提供了水汽和能量,促进并维持对流的强烈发展;水汽螺旋度高值区和水汽散度通量低值区都与强降水区域有较好的对应关系,且有较好的时间相关性,这对强降水落区和降水系统的移动发展有一定的指示意义;低层暖湿气流抬升与高层冷空气交汇触发了此次暴雨天气过程;K指数和A指数对于暴雨的形成和发展有一定的预报意义。