社会经济统计数据空间化研究进展

社会经济统计数据通常是以各级行政区为单位的汇总数据,它虽然能反映统计单元之间的差异但却不能反映统计单元内部的异质性,在实际应用中,无法满足统计任意区域内的社会经济数据的需求,而社会经济统计数据空间化则是有效解决该问题的一条重要途径。本文对现有社会经济统计数据的空间化方法、社会经济统计数据空间化过程所依赖的辅助数据、现有主要的社会经济空间化数据产品进行了归纳总结,并从空间化方法的制约因素和改进方向、新型辅助数据的探索和多源辅助数据的综合利用、高时空分辨率和高精度数据产品研发3个方面展望了社会经济统计数据空间化的未来发展趋势。研究结果可为社会经济统计数据空间化方法的选择与改进、辅助数据的选择与综合利用、社会经济空间化数据产品的选择与改进提供参考。     

Molecular identification of bloom-forming species Phaeocystis globosa (Pryninesiophyta) and its dispersal based on rDNA ITS sequence analysis

The colony-forming Phaeocystis species are causative agents of dense bloom occurrences in coastal waters worldwide. It is difficult to separate them because of the different morphologies associated with their colonial stages. In this study we applied molecular approaches to analyze the genetic variation of Phaeocystis globosa and Phaeocystis pouchetii from several geographic regions, and to assist in tracing the dispersal of bloom-forming Phaeocystis species in coastal waters of China. The sequences of the internal transcribed spacers (ITS1 and ITS2) of rDNA and the 5.8S ribosomal RNA gene of Phaeocystis strains were determined. Sequence comparison shows that P.globosa was the most divergent to P. pouchetii, exhibiting sequence divergence higher than 0.08. However, lower genetic divergences existed between strains of P.globosa. The sequence comparison of the Phaeocystis rDNA ITS clearly shows that the species isolated from the southeast coast of China is identified as P.globosa rather than P. cf. pouchetii or other species. Furthermore, the significance of rDNA variation in distinct global populations of P.globosa suggested it might have had sufficient time to accumulate detectable mutations at the rDNA locus, supporting the hypothesis of ancient dispersal of P.globosa to many areas, meaning that P.globosa blooms in the coastal waters of China are endemic rather than a newly introduced species or a foreign source. Finally, based on the high divergent region of rDNA ITS, a pair of species-specific primers for P.globosa were designed, they could be useful to detect the presence of this species in mixed plankton assemblages or flagellate stages that are recognized with diffculties by means of conventional microscopy.     

狼毒种群小尺度空间分布格局及空间关联性研究

空间分布格局、空间关联性对尺度具有较强的依赖性,种群在不同的尺度上往往表现出多种空间分布格局和空间关联性。在黑河上游高寒退化草地,采用点格局分析方法,研究了小尺度上狼毒(Stellera chamaejasme)种群的分布格局和空间关联性。结果表明:小尺度上随着种群的发育,狼毒种群的空间分布格局由聚集分布逐渐向随机分布过渡;两个形体大小程度越接近的种群之间,空间关联性越有可能表现为正关联,随着种群的共同发育,空间关联性逐渐向不显著过渡,形体大小差异程度越大,则越有可能表现为负关联,而较大尺度上空间关联性趋于复杂化。种群个体之间的相互庇护促使狼毒个体的数量不断增长,并通过种内竞争使斑块不断扩张,狼毒种群合作与竞争机制的相互转变实现了种群的扩散。     

三峡库区人口、资源、环境与经济的协调发展

全面分析了三峡库区的面临的人口,资源与环境问题及其对经济发展产生的影响,通过模型分析了人口,资源,环境可持续发展的相关指标;提出了经济与人口,资源及环境协调发展的相关措施。     

Effects of demand estimates on the evaluation and optimality of service centre locations

Public service systems, such as emergency health care, police or fire brigades, are critical for day-to-day functioning of the society. To design and operate these systems efficiently much data needs to be collected and properly utilised. Here, we use the OpenStreetMap (OSM) data to model the demand points (DPs), which approximate the geographical location of customers, and the road network, which is used to access or distribute services. We consider all inhabitants as customers, and therefore to estimate the demand, we use the available population grids. People are changing their location in the course of the day and thus the demand for services is changing accordingly. In this paper, we investigate how the used demand estimate affects the optimal design of a public service system. We calculate and compare efficient designs corresponding to two demand models, a night-time demand model when the majority of inhabitants rest at home and the demand model derived from the 24-hour average of the population density. We propose a simple measure to quantify the differences between population grids and we estimate how the size of differences affects the optimal structure of a public service system. Our analyses reveal that the efficiency of the service system is not only dependent on the placement strategy, but an inappropriate demand model has significant effects when designing a system as well as when evaluating its efficiency.     

基于镇域尺度的江苏省人口分布空间格局演变

基于2000年、2010年人口普查乡镇（街道）数据,运用探索性空间数据分析、半变异函数等方法,分析江苏省人口分布的时空分异特征,并揭示其空间演化机理。结果表明：① 江苏省人口分布呈现较大的空间差异,全省层面上呈现南北人口密度高于中部的“凹”字型结构,城乡层面上呈现街道人口密度高于乡镇的“城乡二元”结构,以及沿江地区明显的“核心边缘”结构;② 研究期内江苏省人口分布的空间不均衡性和集聚性呈增强之势,长江以北镇域的人口密度大多降低而以南普遍增加,苏锡常、南京、徐州三大都市圈的人口集聚能力进一步提升,沿江地区成为全省规模最大的高密度人口连绵区;③ 空间关联作用是引起江苏省人口分布格局变化的空间机理,而政策、区位、经济与自然环境等因素是造成江苏人口格局变化的主要动力。     

抗差自适应卡尔曼滤波在GPS精密单点定位中的应用

卡尔曼滤波是GPS精密单点定位中最常用的参数估计方法.理论上讲,随着观测数据的增多,通过卡尔曼滤波可以得到更精确的状态估值,但有时由于状态异常或发生大的周跳等原因,使得状态估值与实际状态之间的误差较大,滤波会发生发散现象,为此,本文提出了将抗差自适应滤波模型运用到精密单点定位中,通过算例分析显示,该方法将显著提高定位结...     

季风转换期印度洋经向热输运的年际变异及其机理

本文采用SODA3.4.2再分析数据和POP2海洋模式研究了季风转换期间（春季和秋季）热带印度洋经向热输运异常（Meridional Heat Transport Anomaly, MHTA）的年际变异特征。春季MHTA存在两个主要模态,即一致模态和辐合辐散模态：一致模态表现为热带印度洋上层一致的向北输运,受热带印度洋海温一致模相关的赤道反对称风场（赤道以北/南为东北风/西北风异常）调控;辐合辐散模态则呈现关于赤道对称的表层辐散次表层辐合特征,受控于赤道以南的热带西南印度洋和副热带东南印度洋海温偶极子。然而,秋季MHTA仅表现为辐合辐散模态,受到印度洋偶极子期间赤道东风和赤道外反气旋式风应力异常影响。此外,POP2敏感性试验也验证了印度洋海温模态影响下异常风场对MHTA的调控作用,即反对称的风引起一致向北的MHTA,赤道东风异常引起MHTA表层辐散、次表层辐合现象。因此,热带印度洋海气耦合模态年际变化对印度洋上层热量再分配有着重要的意义。     

福建闽南地区与广西北海地区波纹巴非蛤的形态差异与遗传多样性分析

本研究采用形态学和微卫星分子标记对福建闽南地区（厦门、云霄、惠安）及广西北海4个野生波纹巴非蛤群体进行形态学与遗传多样性分析。主成分与聚类分析结果表明：惠安与北海群体的形态最为相近,其次为云霄群体,而厦门群体的趋异度最大。构建了两个主成分PC1和PC2,其中PC1的贡献率为36.134%,PC2的贡献率为21.443%,累计贡献率为57.577%。建立了4群体的判别函数,判别准确率P₁为43.3%~93.5%,P₂为44.8%~88.0%,综合判别率为66.1%。4个波纹巴非蛤群体的整体遗传多样性较高,群体间遗传分化微弱,属于同1个自由交配组群,NJ系统发育树聚类结果未检测到与地理位置相对应的谱系结构,这可能与人为引种、贸易及增殖放流等活动导致波纹巴非蛤不同群体间频繁基因交流有关。建议今后在波纹巴非蛤的资源管理和开发利用时,加强本地种质资源的保护。