高亚洲地区冰崩灾害的研究进展

在全球气候变化的背景下,冰崩灾害极有可能成为人类面临的新常态。特别是在高亚洲地区,冰崩灾害事件严重威胁"亚洲水塔"的命运和"第三极"的生态安全。因此,研究冰崩灾害事件对于保障"一带一路"国家战略的顺利实施和保护"一带一路"沿线国家的生产与生存环境具有重要的现实意义。通过梳理历史上有记录的几次冰崩灾害事件,系统介绍冰崩的发生过程;再从冰崩体的物质组成、冰崩体的运动特征、冰崩发生的可能原因以及冰崩的影响等方面总结了冰崩的研究内容;重点阐述了冰崩的研究方法;最后讨论了当前冰崩研究存在的问题,并从冰崩研究方法等角度展望了未来冰崩灾害事件的研究方向。     

青藏铁路对西藏各经济部门发展影响的定量评估

青藏铁路对西藏经济发展影响重大,定量评估其对各经济部门发展的影响程度,是全面评价铁路交通基础设施效益、分析未来冰冻圈变化对线性工程及经济社会重大影响的基础。将灰色关联分析法与投入产出法相结合,既填补了关联度分析的黑箱式缺陷,又弥补了西藏投入产出调查缺乏长时间序列数据的问题,以此来认识青藏铁路对西藏经济发展的影响机理与路径。以2006-2016年统计数据为基础,采用灰色关联度模型计算青藏铁路与西藏各经济部门发展的灰色关联度值,表明铁路运输水平与西藏地区生产总值（GDP）、第三产业高度相关,其中与货运邮电业、住宿餐饮业两个部门关联度达到了0.9以上。在灰色关联度结果的基础上,运用西藏2012年投入产出表及投入产出模型计算铁路的直接作用,以及对各经济部门的间接波及作用,研究发现：青藏铁路建设及运营的劳动密集程度高,且通过灰色关联度较高行业的产品及服务影响其他行业,以直接作用、后向和前向波及作用、消费波及作用三种路径对区域经济的发展产生重要影响,扣除消费波及作用的总体贡献达到41.7亿元,相当于2012年西藏GDP的5.95%。由于铁路交通基础设施重要的直接作用及间接波及作用,建议在工程条件适宜地区加快铁路运输网络建设,同时,将工程设施的社会经济效益纳入冰冻圈服务功能核算中。     

A CRPS-Based Spatial Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known“double penalty”problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy (neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i.e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency, which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.     

Contrasting water–rock interaction behaviors of antimony and arsenic in contaminated rivers around an antimony mine,Hunan Province,China

Although antimony (Sb) and arsenic (As) exhibit similar geochemical behavior and toxicity in the environment, growing evidence suggests that their water–rock interaction behavior in contaminated rivers is quite different. Twenty-nine river water samples were collected between September and November 2018 from contaminated rivers around an antimony mine in Hunan Province, China. The concentrations of As and Sb were inversely proportional to the water flow distance. The rates and magnitudes of Sb decrease were more prominent than those of As. Silicate mineral dissolution from rocks such as silicified limestone increased the As and Sb concentration of in-mine-district (IMD) water. Dissolution of carbonate minerals, ion exchange, and competitive adsorption were the major water–rock interactions, resulting in rapidly decreasing As and Sb concentration in IMD direct impacted water and IMD indirect impacted water. The behaviors of As and Sb during water–rock interaction were dissimilar for areas dominated by carbonate and silicate minerals.     

黄原胶改性微米铁修复地下水中Cr(Ⅵ)污染的试验

为了解决微米铁的重力沉降问题,提高微米铁修复地下水Cr（Ⅵ）污染的原位修复效果,本文利用黄原胶对微米铁进行改性,并通过沉降实验探究改性微米铁浆液的稳定性,同时选择Cr（Ⅵ）作为目标污染物,探究黄原胶改性微米铁去除地下水Cr（Ⅵ）污染的降解能力。实验结果显示：当黄原胶的投加质量浓度分别为0.0、1.0、1.5、2.0、2.5、3.0、6.0 g/L时,改性微米铁浆液的悬浮稳定性逐渐得到加强,在5 h沉降实验结束时,对应的相对分光光度值分别为0.05、0.25、0.46、0.57、0.65、0.73和0.87;黄原胶具有抑制微米铁吸附Cr（Ⅵ）的能力,其可促进Cr（Ⅵ）的还原,提高Cr（Ⅵ）的去除率;随着黄原胶投加质量浓度的增加,对应的Cr（Ⅵ）去除率分别为33.4%、41.2%、47.4%、51.1%、53.0%、63.9%和64.1%;6.0 g/L黄原胶改性的微米铁浆液具有最佳的悬浮稳定性,黄原胶的投加提高了微米铁的反应活性,但当黄原胶投加质量浓度超过3.0 g/L时,其对Cr（Ⅵ）的去除率没有显著提高;黄原胶投加质量浓度越大,黄原胶的缓冲作用就越明显。     

某Cr(Ⅵ)污染场地修复的PRB反应材料及结构设计研究

渗透反应格栅(permeable reactive barrier,PRB)在国外被广泛应用于场地尺度的地下水污染修复,因其无须外源动力、不占地面空间、运行成本低等优势在国内受到广泛关注。不同场地水文地质条件、污染物类型、污染羽分布具有差异性,前期场地调查、反应材料的筛选、反应墙尺寸结构的设计对于PRB的有效运行至关重要。本文以PRB修复河南某Cr(Ⅵ)污染场地为例,详细阐述场地调查、材料筛选、材料反应参数确定、PRB结构优化等方面的研究过程及成果,可为后续PRB修复技术的应用提供参考。研究结果表明:PRB修复技术适用于该场地,铸铁与活性炭混合材料为最佳修复材料;反应门长40 m(反应材料厚2 m,上下游分别为2 m厚砾石层),东西两侧隔水墙长为60 m的U型漏斗-门系统型PRB,可有效捕获并修复污染羽,工程成本远低于连续反应墙式PRB,为该场地修复最优PRB结构类型。     

随机森林模型预测岩溶区酸性煤矿井水锰污染

酸性煤矿井水严重威胁地下水的水质。如何更有效对受影响区域的地下水源进行动态监测是当前的一个关键问题。采用随机森林中的回归模型,利用自变量(采空区水位、岩溶水位、pH值、泉水流量、电导率)和因变量(污染离子浓度)的相关性,建立回归模型;使用测试数据进行误差分析,结果证明模型准度较高,所得预测值具有参考价值;得出各自变量对因变量影响的重要程度,分析结果与实际情况相符合。试验表明,随机森林回归模型在酸性煤矿井水污染预测方面具有适用性,可作为辅助手段监测水质污染情况,对今后工作有一定的指导意义和经济价值。     

地下水资源遥感评估技术研究进展

地下水的赋存和埋深是地下水资源勘察的重要内容。遥感技术具有数据获取快、综合成本低、观测尺度大等诸多优势。基于遥感的地下水资源评估技术一直受到研究人员的关注,也是遥感应用研究中的热点和难点。回顾总结了遥感技术在评估地下水赋存和埋深领域的应用与研究进展,根据不同评估技术的特点将其划分为单因子模型评估法、多因子综合模型评估法、重力卫星数据评估法3种。得出以下结论: ①地下水遥感评估技术经过多年发展,模型方法更加多样,精确度不断提高,可以作为传统地下水资源勘察的重要辅助手段; ②遥感评估地下水赋存的研究发展迅速,但针对地下水埋深信息的评估研究进展相对缓慢; ③高时空分辨率遥感技术和机器学习技术的结合运用、无人机遥感技术的应用是地下水资源遥感评估技术的未来发展方向。     

Groundwater characteristics and climate and ecological evolution in the Badain Jaran Desert in the southwest Mongolian Plateau

The Badain Jaran Desert is the third largest desert in China, covering an area of 50000 km². It lies in Northwest China, where the arid and rainless natural environment has a great impact on the climate, environment, and human living conditions. Based on the results of 1∶250000 regional hydrogeological surveys and previous researches, this study systematically investigates the circulation characteristics and resource properties of the groundwater as well as the evolution of the climate and ecological environment since the Quaternary in the Badain Jaran Desert by means of geophysical exploration, hydrogeological drilling, hydrogeochemistry, and isotopic tracing. The results are as follows. (1) The groundwater in the Badain Jaran Desert is mainly recharged through the infiltration of local precipitation and has poor renewability. The groundwater recharge in the desert was calculated to be 1.8684×10⁸ m³/a using the water balance method. (2) The Badain Jaran Desert has experienced four humid stages since the Quaternary, namely MIS 13-15, MIS 5, MIS 3, and the Early–Middle Holocene, but the climate in the desert has shown a trend towards aridity overall. The average annual temperature in the Badain Jaran Desert has significantly increased in the past 50 years. In detail, it has increased by about 2.5°C, with a higher rate in the south than in the north. Meanwhile, the precipitation amount has shown high spatial variability and the climate has shown a warming-drying trend in the past 50 years. (3) The lakes in the hinterland of the Badain Jaran Desert continuously shrank during 1973–2015. However, the vegetation communities maintained a highly natural distribution during 2000–2016, with the vegetation cover has increased overall. Accordingly, the Badain Jaran Desert did not show any notable expansion in that period. This study deepens the understanding of groundwater circulation and the climate and ecological evolution in the Badain Jaran Desert. It will provide a scientific basis for the rational exploitation of the groundwater resources and the ecological protection and restoration in the Badain Jaran Desert.© 2021 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Sensitivity assessment of strontium isotope as indicator of polluted groundwater for hydraulic fracturing flowback fluids produced in the Dameigou Shale of Qaidam Basin

Hydrogeochemical processes that would occur in polluted groundwater and aquifer system, may reduce the sensitivity of Sr isotope being the indicator of hydraulic fracturing flowback fluids(HFFF) in groundwater. In this paper, the Dameigou shale gas field in the northern Qaidam Basin was taken as the study area, where the hydrogeochemical processes affecting Sr isotope was analysed. Then, the model for Sr isotope in HFFF-polluted groundwater was constructed to assess the sensitivity of Sr isotope as HFFF indicator. The results show that the dissolution can release little Sr to polluted groundwater and cannot affect the εSr(the deviation of the 87 Sr/86 Sr ratio) of polluted groundwater. In the meantime, cation exchange can considerably affect Sr composition in the polluted groundwater. The Sr with low εSr is constantly released to groundwater from the solid phase of aquifer media by cation exchange with pollution of Quaternary groundwater by the HFFF and it accounts for 4.6% and 11.0% of Sr in polluted groundwater when the HFFF flux reaches 10% and 30% of the polluted groundwater, respectively. However, the Sr from cation exchange has limited impact on Sr isotope in polluted groundwater. Addition of Sr from cation exchange would only cause a 0.2% and 1.2% decrease in εSr of the polluted groundwater when the HFFF flux reaches 10% and 30% of the polluted groundwater, respectively. These results demonstrate that hydrogeochemical processes have little effect on the sensitivity of Sr isotope being the HFFF indicator in groundwater of the study area. For the scenario of groundwater pollution by HFFF, when the HFFF accounts for 5%(in volume percentage) of the polluted groundwater, the HFFF can result in detectable shifts of εSr(ΔεSr=0.86) in natural groundwater. Therefore, after consideration of hydrogeochemical processes occurred in aquifer with input of the HFFF, Sr isotope is still a sensitive indicator of the Quaternary groundwater pollution by the HFFF produced in the Dameigou shale of Qaidam Basin.