黄土高边坡稳定性影响因素分析 ——以宝鸡峡引水工程为例

黄土高边坡稳定性受多种因素影响,对高边坡稳定性影响因素进行敏感性分析非常必要。通过建立合理的计算模型,采用灰色关联度法,对影响宝鸡峡引水工程黄土高边坡稳定性的主要因素进行了分析。结果表明,土体的内摩擦角和黏聚力对其稳定性影响最大;采用正交实验分析可知,除土体的内摩擦角、黏聚力和坡高外,地震作用对黄土高边坡稳定性的影响也较大。以上分析表明,抗剪强度指标是影响黄土高边坡稳定的主要敏感性因素,提出了在黄土高边坡稳定性分析时应尽量使抗剪强度指标的选取准确、合理,同时也应考虑边坡高度和地震的影响,进而为黄土高边坡类的工程设计和运行管理提供重要参考。     

基于序列参数的水库地震类型综合判定研究

收集整理了我国大陆东部地区44 组水库地震序列,其中震群型32 组,主余型和孤立型12 组。分别计算了44 组序列的h 值、b 值、归一化熵值K、能量均匀度U、地震发生方式参数ρ 等5 个序列参数。在95% 的置信水平下,对每一参数分震群型、主余型加孤立型两大类进行差异性检验。结果表明,h、U、ρ 值对水库地震序列类型的分类能力不强;b 值平均值虽存在一定差异,但数值分布范围有部分重叠;K 值差异性显著,K = 0. 35 可作为区分震群型与主余型加孤立型两类水库地震序列的判别指标。在此基础上,建立以上述5 个参数为自变量的Fisher 判别函数,用于序列类型的综合判定。结果显示,所有数据全部参与建立判别函数并进行回溯性内符判别检验,识别正确率为97. 6% ;利用32 组序列参数参与判别函数建立,另外10 组进行外推检验,识别正确率为100% ,表明上述综合判别方法具有较高的水库地震序列分类能力。     

Research on wind-induced responses of a large-scale membrane structure

The wind-induced responses of a large-scale membrane structure, Expo Boulevard, are evaluated in this study. To obtain the wind pressure distribution on the roof surface, a wind tunnel test is performed. A brief analysis of wind pressure on the membrane roof is conducted first and then an analysis of the wind-induced responses of the structure is carried out using a numerical integral method in the time domain. In the process of calculation, the geometrical nonlinearity is taken into account. Results indicate that mean, RSM and peak values of the structure responses increase nonlinearly while the approaching flow velocity increases. Strong nonlinear characteristics are observed in the displacement responses, whereas the responses of nodal stress and cable axial force show minimal nonlinear properties when the membrane structure is subjected to wind loads. Different values of the damping ratio only have a minimal impact on the RSM response of the structure because the background component is a dominant part of the total dynamic response and the resonant component is too small. As the damping ratio increases from 0.02 to 0.05, the RMS responses of vertical displacement, nodal stress and cable axial force decrease by 8.1%, 6.7% and 17.9%, respectively. Since the mean component plays a significant role in the wind-induced response, the values of the gust response factor are not high for Expo Boulevard.     

Hydro-climatic trends in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin,Ethiopia

Trends of the three hydro-meteorological variables precipitation, temperature and stream flow, represented by 13, 12, and 9 gauging stations, respectively, within the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin have been studied to support water management in the region. The Trends were evaluated over different time periods depending on data availability at the stations. The statistical Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests have been used to assess trends and change points respectively. The tests have been applied to mean annual, monthly, seasonal, 1- and 7-days annual minimum and maximum values for streamflow, while mean annual, monthly and seasonal timescales were applied to meteorological variables. The results are heterogeneous and depict statistically significant increasing/decreasing trends. Besides, it showed significant abrupt change of point upward/downward shift for streamflow and temperature time series. However, precipitation time series did not show any statistically significant trends in mean annual and seasonal scales across the examined stations.Increasing trends in temperature at different weather stations for the mean annual, rainy, dry and small rainy seasons are apparent. The mean temperature at Bahir Dar – typical station in the Lake Tana sub basin, has been increasing at the rate of about 0.5 °C/decade, 0.3 °C/decade in rainy season (June–September), 0.6 °C/decade in small rainy season (March–May), and 0.6 °C/decade in dry season (October–February). Other stations in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile show comparable results. Overall it is found that trends and change point times varied considerably across the stations and catchment to catchment. Identified significant trends can help to make better planning decisions for water management. However, the cause attributes to the observed changes in hydro-meteorological variables need further research. In particular the combined effects of land use/land cover change and climate variability on streamflow of Abay/Blue Nile basin and its tributaries needs to be understood better.     

Verification and validation of a seismic response analysis code for framed structures using the ASI‐Gauss technique

In this report, the capabilities of the adaptively shifted integration (ASI)‐Gauss code in the analysis of the seismic responses of framed structures are verified and validated by comparing the results with detailed numerical simulations performed by the parallel finite element analysis code, E‐Simulator, and with experimental results obtained by E‐Defense. The numerical results obtained by both codes showed good agreement with the experimental results obtained by E‐Defense. Furthermore, seismic waves with unnaturally large magnitudes are applied to a high‐rise building model to demonstrate the ability of the ASI‐Gauss code to analyze the collapse behaviors of building frames. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Full‐scale shaking table test of a base‐isolated medical facility subjected to vertical motions

Base isolation is a well known technology that has been proven to reduce structural response to horizontal ground accelerations. However, vertical response still remains a topic of concern for base‐isolated buildings, perhaps more so than in fixed‐base buildings as isolation is often used when high performance is required. To investigate the effects of vertical response on building contents and nonstructural components, a series of full‐scale shaking table tests were conducted at the E‐Defense facility in Japan. A four‐story base‐isolated reinforced concrete building was outfitted as a medical facility with a wide variety of contents, and the behavior of the contents was observed. The rubber base isolation system was found to significantly amplify vertical accelerations in some cases. However, the damage caused by the vertical ground motions was not detrimental when peak vertical floor accelerations remained below 2 g with three exceptions: (1) small items placed on shelves slid or toppled; (2) objects jumped when placed on nonrigid furniture, which tended to increase the response; and (3) equipment with vertical eccentricities rocked and jumped. In these tests, all equipment and nonstructural components remained functional after shaking. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A study on the seismic performance of steel‐reinforced concrete frame‐concrete core wall high‐rise mixed structure by large‐scale shaking table tests and numerical simulations

This paper reports a study for the seismic performance of one large‐scaled (1/15) model of 30‐story steel‐reinforced concrete frame‐concrete core wall mixed structure. The study was implemented by both shaking table tests, in which the similarity ratio for lateral and gravitational accelerations was kept to 1:1, and numerical nonlinear dynamic analysis. The test observations presented herein include story displacement, interstory drift, natural vibration periods, and final failure mode. The numerical analysis was performed to simulate the shaking table test procedure, and the numerically obtained responses were verified by the test results. On the basis of the numerical results, the progressions of structural stiffness, base shear, and overturning moment were investigated, and the distributions of base shear and overturning moment between frame and core wall were also discussed. The test demonstrates the seismic performance of the steel‐reinforced concrete frame‐core wall mixed structure and reveals the potential overturning failure mode for high rise structures. The nonlinear analysis results indicate that the peripheral frames could take more shear forces after core wall damaged under severe earthquakes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A direct analysis of flood interval probability using approximately 100-year streamflow datasets

ABSTRACT

Series of observed flood intervals, defined as the time intervals between successive flood peaks over a threshold, were extracted directly from 11 approximately 100-year streamflow datasets from Queensland, Australia. A range of discharge thresholds were analysed that correspond to return periods of approximately 3.7 months to 6.3 years. Flood interval histograms at South East Queensland gauges were consistently unimodal whereas those of the North and Central Queensland sites were often multimodal. The exponential probability distribution (pd) is often used to describe interval exceedence probabilities, but fitting utilizing the Anderson-Darling statistic found little evidence that it is the most suitable. The fatigue life pd dominated sub-year return periods (<1 year), often transitioning to a log Pearson 3 pd at above-year return periods. Fatigue life pd is used in analysis of the lifetime to structural failure when a threshold is exceeded, and this paper demonstrates its relevance also to the elapsed time between above-threshold floods. At most sites, the interval medians were substantially less than the means for sub-year return periods. Statistically the median is a better measure of the central tendency of skewed distributions but the mean is generally used in practice to describe the classical concept of flood return period.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor I. Nalbantis     

Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity modelling of hydrologic time series

The existence of time‐dependent variance or conditional variance, commonly called heteroscedasticity, in hydrologic time series has not been thoroughly investigated. This paper deals with modelling the heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The model is applied to two monthly rainfall time series from humid and arid regions. The effect of Box–Cox transformation and seasonal differencing on the remaining seasonal heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the SARIMA model is also investigated. It is shown that the seasonal heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the SARIMA model can be removed using Box–Cox transformation along with seasonal differencing for the humid region rainfall. On the other hand, transformation and seasonal differencing could not remove heteroscedasticity from the residuals of the SARIMA model fitted to rainfall data in the arid region. Therefore, the GARCH modelling approach is necessary to capture the heteroscedasticity remaining in the residuals of a SARIMA model. However, the evaluation criteria do not necessarily show that the GARCH model improves the performance of the SARIMA model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of ten notable meteorological drought indices on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow

ABSTRACT

Ten notable meteorological drought indices were compared on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow. A 730-month dataset of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for 88 catchments in Oregon, USA, representing pristine conditions, was used to compute the drought indices. These indices were correlated with the monthly streamflow datasets of the minimum, maximum and mean discharge, and the discharge monthly fluctuation; it was revealed that the 3-month Z-score drought index (Z3) has the best association with the four streamflow variables. The Mann-Kendall trend detection test applied to the latter index time series mainly highlighted a downward trend in the autumn and winter drought magnitude (DM) and an upward trend in the spring and summer DM (p = 0.05). Finally, the Pettitt test indicated an abrupt decline in the annual and autumn DM, which began in 1984 and 1986, respectively.