Tensionless–frictionless interaction of flexible annular foundation with a transversely isotropic multi‐layered half‐space

A transversely isotropic multi‐layered half‐space, with axis of material symmetry perpendicular to the free surface, supports a flexible either annular or solid circle foundation. The contact area of the foundation and the half‐space is considered to be both frictionless and tensionless. The foundation is assumed to be affected by a vertical static axisymmetric load. Detailed analysis of the interaction of these two systems with different thickness of layers is the target of this paper. With the use of ring load Green's functions for both the foundation and the continuum half‐space, an integral equation accompanied with some inequalities is introduced to model the complex BVP. With the incorporation of ring‐shape FEM, we are capable of capturing both regular and singular solution smoothly. The validity of the combination of the analytical and numerical method is proved with comparing the results of this paper with a number of benchmark cases of both linear and nonlinear interaction of circular and annular foundation with half‐space. Some new illustrations are presented to portray the aspect of the anisotropy and layering of the half‐space. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of bed surface roughness on longitudinal dispersion in artificial open channels

In several empirical and modelling studies on river hydraulics, dispersion was negatively correlated to surface roughness. In this study, it was aimed to investigate the influence of surface roughness on longitudinal dispersion under controlled conditions. In artificial flow channels with a length of 104 m, tracer experiments with variations in channel bed material were performed. By use of measured tracer breakthrough curves, average flow velocity, mean longitudinal dispersion, and mean longitudinal dispersivity were calculated. Longitudinal dispersion coefficients ranged from 0·018 m² s^?1 in channels with smooth bed surface up to 0·209 m² s^?1 in channels with coarse gravel as bed material. Longitudinal dispersion was linearly related to mean flow velocity. Accordingly, longitudinal dispersivities ranged between 0·152 ± 0·017 m in channels with smooth bed surface and 0·584 ± 0·015 m in identical channels with a coarse gravel substrate. Grain size and surface roughness of the channel bed were found to correlate positively to longitudinal dispersion. This finding contradicts several existing relations between surface roughness and dispersion. Future studies should include further variation in surface roughness to derive a better‐founded empirical equation forecasting longitudinal dispersion from surface roughness. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

不同大尺度强迫条件下考虑初始场与侧边界条件不确定性的对流尺度集合预报试验

研究了不同大尺度强迫条件下的暴雨个例中,考虑不同尺度特征的初始扰动与侧边界扰动相互作用构造对流尺度集合预报的可行性,为进一步构建“自适应”于不同强对流天气的对流尺度集合预报系统提供依据。结果表明,在大尺度强迫显著的个例1中,以大尺度扰动信息为主的动力降尺度的增长趋势较集合转换卡尔曼滤波(ETKF)更为显著,且总扰动能量在预报中后期超过集合转换卡尔曼滤波,而在大尺度强迫较弱的个例2中,集合转换卡尔曼滤波扰动能量始终高于动力降尺度。此外,当大尺度强迫显著时,初始扰动与侧边界扰动相匹配会产生相互促进的作用,而不匹配时初始扰动会在预报中后期抑制侧边界扰动的发展,当大尺度强迫较弱时,即使是互相间不匹配的初始扰动与侧边界扰动也能在大部分预报时段起到相互促进的作用,说明初始扰动与侧边界扰动的相互作用机制不仅与天气形势相关,也与二者是否匹配挂钩,另外,扰动的发展特征同样依赖于天气形势;从集合离散度的角度来看,当大尺度强迫明显时,侧边界扰动的作用会在更短的时间内取代初始扰动,从而对离散度起到主导地位;两种初始扰动方法相比,集合转换卡尔曼滤波在多数情况下对总离散度的贡献均大于动力降尺度;从降水量预报及概率预报情况来看,大尺度强迫明显的个例可预报性更高,且各集合成员间的差异较小,大尺度强迫较弱的个例则相反,且当两种初始扰动方案与侧边界扰动相结合时,较仅侧边界扰动均有一定提高。      

分数阶混合随机泛函微分方程的能控性

主要研究了分数阶混合随机泛函微分方程的能控性.在无限维空间下,假设所考虑方程线性部分生成半群不是紧的,使用非紧性测度技术和Mönch不动点定理,给出了方程能控性充分条件,并通过一个例子说明了结论的有效性.     

GRAPES区域集合预报两种侧边界扰动方法对比试验

中国气象局数值预报中心自2014年建立了区域集合预报业务系统,其使用的侧边界扰动由全球集合预报系统动力降尺度得到。为深入了解侧边界扰动对区域集合预报的影响,基于15 km水平分辨率的区域集合预报模式,使用动力降尺度方法和尺度化滞后平均法(scaled lagged average forecasting,SLAF)设计构造了两种侧边界扰动方案,并开展了2015年7月共6天的集合预报试验,利用集合均方根误差、集合离散度、连续分级概率评分、离群值、Brier Score及相对作用特征曲线面积等概率预报检验方法进行了多方面检验,分析了两种侧边界扰动方案对区域集合预报质量的影响。结果表明:动力降尺度侧边界扰动方案(DOWN)的扰动总能量在各垂直层次均大于SLAF方案,使得边界上前者的离散度大于后者,集合扰动增长更为合理;对于等压面要素和地面要素,DOWN方案的离散度、Outlier、CRPS等评分优于SLAF方案,反映了DOWN方案构造的侧边界扰动更加合理;在降水概率预报技巧方面,SLAF方案在评分上具有一定优势,但评分的提高没有通过显著性水平检验,因此认为两种方案对降水预报的改进基本相当。     

摄动理论在腐蚀管线随机地震反应分析中的应用

埋地管线的腐蚀情况十分复杂,具有随机性的特点,从而导致其在地震激励下的反应必然具有随机性。本文在管线腐蚀离散状态模型和弹性地基梁原理的基础上,利用随机摄动理论推导给出了腐蚀管线在地震激励下位移和应力的解析表达式,并进行了均值和标准差的计算。实例分析中将该方法计算结果与Monte Carlo模拟方法计算结果进行了对比。结果表明,利用随机摄动方法可以快速、精确地求得腐蚀管线的随机地震反应。     

A two-dimensional finite volume hydrodynamic model for coastal areas: Model development and validation

A two dimensional implicit finite volume scheme for solving the shallow-water equations is developed. The effects of the Coriolis force, surface wind stress, and waves are included. A non-uniform rectilinear forward staggered grid is used with Cartesian coordinates. The time integration is performed using the Euler implicit technique. The convective flux is treated using the deferred correction method. The viscous terms are discretized using a second order central difference approximation. The SIMPLE (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equations) algorithm is used for coupling the velocity components and the water elevation gradient for the water level correction. The system of equations is solved sequentially using the Strongly Implicit Procedure (SIP). To simulate wave driven current, a phase averaged wave model is used first to simulate wave transformation and calculate radiation stresses. The performance of the developed model is validated for different sources of external forces and different combinations of boundary conditions. The validation cases include tidal circulation in a harbor and wave induced currents behind a breakwater parallel to the coastline. The model is finally applied to simulate the flow pattern in a closed artificial lagoon and along the coastline near Damietta Port located along the Northern coast of Egypt. Results of the developed model agree well with the published results for the considered cases.     

Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: Application to skipjack tuna

A Spatial Ecosystem and Population Dynamic Model (SEAPODYM) is used in a data assimilation study aiming to estimate model parameters that describe dynamics of Pacific skipjack tuna population on ocean-based scale. The model based on advection–diffusion–reaction equations explicitly predicts spatial dynamics of large pelagic predators, while taking into account data on several mid-trophic level components, oceanic primary productivity and physical environment. In order to improve its quantitative ability, the model was parameterized through assimilation with commercial fisheries data, and optimization was carried out using maximum likelihood estimation approach. To address the optimization task we implemented an adjoint technique to obtain an exact, analytical evaluation of the likelihood gradient. We conducted a series of computer experiments in order to (i) determine model sensitivity with respect to variable parameters and, hence, investigate their observability; (ii) estimate observable parameters and their errors; and (iii) justify the reliability of the computed solution. Parameters describing recruitment, movement, habitat preferences, natural and fishing mortality of skipjack population were analysed and estimated. Results of the study suggest that SEAPODYM with achieved parameterization scheme can help to investigate the impact of fishing under various management scenarios, and also conduct forecasts of a given species stock and spatial dynamics in a context of environmental and climate changes.