西藏地区强降雪过程的波包分布及传播特征

利用NCEP/NCAR高度场的再分析资料,通过波包传播诊断方法(WPD),对2005年10月19～23日西藏地区中东部及南部边缘地区一次大范围强降雪天气过程进行波包分布与波能传播特征分析。结果表明:500hPa高度场的波包分布和传播特征很好地反映此次过程;强降雪天气发生在波包大值区域内而且反映了过程的爆发和消亡;波包的分布特征与强对流天气的发生状况是一致的;波包的移动路径很好地反映了扰动能量的传播。此次过程是"积累-释放"的三次循环。     

Sensitivity of the DRP-4DVar Performance to Perturbation Samples Obtained by Two Different Methods

The dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) approach utilizes the ensemble of historical forecasts to estimate the background error covariance (BEC) and directly obtains the analysis in the ensemble space.As a result,the quality of ensemble members significantly affects the DRP-4DVar performance.The historical-forecast-based initial perturbation samples are flow-dependent and can describe the error-growth pattern of the atmospheric model and the balanced relat...     

Algorithm Studies on How to Obtain a Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP)

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which is a nonlinear generalization of the linear singular vector (LSV), is applied in important problems of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, including ENSO predictability, targeted observations, and ensemble forecast. In this study, we investigate the computational cost of obtaining the CNOP by several methods. Differences and similarities, in terms of the computational error and cost in obtaining the CNOP, are compared among the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm, the limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm, and the spectral projected gradients (SPG2) algorithm. A theoretical grassland ecosystem model and the classical Lorenz model are used as examples. Numerical results demonstrate that the computational error is acceptable with all three algorithms. The computational cost to obtain the CNOP is reduced by using the SQP algorithm. The experimental results also reveal that the L-BFGS algorithm is the most effective algorithm among the three optimization algorithms for obtaining the CNOP. The numerical results suggest a new approach and algorithm for obtaining the CNOP for a large-scale optimization problem.     

What Kind of Initial Errors Cause the Severest Prediction Uncertainty of El Nino in Zebiak-Cane Model

With the Zebiak-Cane(ZC)model,the initial error that has the largest effect on ENSO prediction is explored by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP).The results demonstrate that CNOP-type errors cause the largest prediction error of ENSO in the ZC model.By analyzing the behavior of CNOP- type errors,we find that for the normal states and the relatively weak El Nino events in the ZC model,the predictions tend to yield false alarms due to the uncertainties caused by CNOP.For the relatively strong El Nino events,the ZC model largely underestimates their intensities.Also,our results suggest that the error growth of El Nino in the ZC model depends on the phases of both the annual cycle and ENSO.The condition during northern spring and summer is most favorable for the error growth.The ENSO prediction bestriding these two seasons may be the most diffcult.A linear singular vector(LSV)approach is also used to estimate the error growth of ENSO,but it underestimates the prediction uncertainties of ENSO in the ZC model.This result indicates that the different initial errors cause different amplitudes of prediction errors though they have same magnitudes.CNOP yields the severest prediction uncertainty.That is to say,the prediction skill of ENSO is closely related to the types of initial error.This finding illustrates a theoretical basis of data assimilation.It is expected that a data assimilation method can filter the initial errors related to CNOP and improve the ENSO forecast skill.     

集合预报风场扰动的物理结构及演变特征

初始扰动结构和振幅的合理性直接影响到集合预报的质量和整体性能,合理的初始扰动结构是确保集合预报扰动质量的关键.本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心数据、我国T639全球集合预报系统以及GRAPES区域集合预报系统的预报场,针对模式初值不确定性,主要研究了风场初始扰动结构及其集合离散度、扰动能量等结构和演变特征,分析了集合预报风...     

Duality properties of Gorringe–Leach equations

In the category of motions preserving the angular momentum direction, Gorringe and Leach exhibited two classes of differential equations having elliptical orbits. After enlarging slightly these classes, we show that they are related by a duality correspondence of the Arnold–Vassiliev type. The specific associated conserved quantities (Laplace–Runge–Lenz vector and Fradkin–Jauch–Hill tensor) are then dual reflections of each other.     

Analytical solutions for the equations of motion of a space vehicle during the atmospheric re-entry phase on a 2-D trajectory

A practical and important problem encountered during the atmospheric re-entry phase is to determine analytical solutions for the space vehicle dynamical equations of motion. The author proposes new solutions for the equations of trajectory and flight-path angle of the space vehicle during the re-entry phase in Earth’s atmosphere. Explicit analytical solutions for the aerodynamic equations of motion can be effectively applied to investigate and control the rocket flight characteristics. Setting the initial conditions for the speed, re-entering flight-path angle, altitude, atmosphere density, lift and drag coefficients, the nonlinear differential equations of motion are linearized by a proper choice of the re-entry range angles. After integration, the solutions are expressed with the Exponential Integral, and Generalized Exponential Integral functions. Theoretical frameworks for proposed solutions as well as, several numerical examples, are presented.     

Analytical Solution of Coupled Perturbation of Tesseral Harmonic Terms of Mars's Non-Spherical Gravitational Potential

The non-spherical gravitational potential of the planet Mars is sig- nificantly different from that of the Earth. The magnitudes of Mars’ tesseral harmonic coefficients are basically ten times larger than the corresponding val- ues of the Earth. Especially, the magnitude of its second degree and order tesseral harmonic coefficient J_2,2 is nearly 40 times that of the Earth, and approaches to the one tenth of its second zonal harmonic coefficient J₂. For a low-orbit Mars probe, if the required accuracy of orbit prediction of 1-day arc length is within 500 m (equivalent to the order of magnitude of 10−4 standard unit), then the coupled terms of J2 with the tesseral harmonics, and even those of the tesseral harmonics themselves, which are negligible for the Earth satellites, should be considered when the analytical perturbation solution of its orbit is built. In this paper, the analytical solutions of the coupled terms are presented. The anal- ysis and numerical verification indicate that the effect of the above-mentioned coupled perturbation on the orbit may exceed 10⁻⁴ in the along-track direc- tion. The conclusion is that the solutions of Earth satellites cannot be simply used without any modification when dealing with the analytical perturbation solutions of Mars-orbiting satellites, and that the effect of the coupled terms of Mars's non-spherical gravitational potential discussed in this paper should be taken into consideration.     

Solution of Lane-Emden type equations using Bernstein operational matrix of differentiation

The purpose of this paper is to propose an efficient numerical method for solving Lane-Emden type equations arising in astrophysics using Bernstein polynomials. First Bernstein operational matrix of differentiation is derived using Bernstein polynomials and then applied to solve the linear and nonlinear differential equations of Lane-Emden type. Some illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the efficiency and validity of the proposed algorithm.     

二维圆柱坐标下FDTD法对多频电磁波测井的数值模拟

在介质围绕Z轴旋转对称的情况下,三维直角坐标下的麦克斯韦方程可变成两组分别对应TM波和TE波的二维柱坐标下的偏微分方程.采用线圈作为电磁波测井的发射器和接收器的时候,可采用TE波对应的方程,这时相当于磁极子的情况.而采用电偶极子作为发射和接收器的时候,则对应TM波的方程.采用时间和空间均为二阶精确的有限差分方法,将偏微分方程进行差分化.这样,空间的电磁场可由时间域有限差分法(FDTD)来求解.