基于偏最小二乘回归的融雪型洪水预报模型

本文采用偏最小二乘回归法对新疆塔什库尔干河流的实测流量资料进行分析,建立了日平均流量的偏最小二乘回归模型,采用建立的模型对2001年日平均流量进行了预报。研究分析表明,结果比较合理,这为融雪型洪水预报提供了一种新的思路和研究方法。     

The Effects of Small Amounts of H2O, CO2 and Na2O on the Partial Melting of Spinel Lherzolite in the System CaO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2 {+/-} H2O {+/-} CO2 {+/-} Na2O at 1{middle dot}1 GPa

The effects of small amounts of H₂O (<4 wt % in the melt)on the multiply saturated partial melting of spinel lherzolitein the system CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂ ±Na₂O ± CO₂ have been determined at 1·1 GPa inthe piston-cylinder apparatus. Electron microprobe analysisand Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy were used to analysethe experimental products. The effects of H₂O are to decreasethe melting temperature by 45°C per wt % H₂O in the melt,to increase the Al₂O₃ of the melts, decrease MgO and CaO, andleave SiO₂ approximately constant, with melts changing fromolivine- to quartz-normative. The effects of CO₂ are insignificantat zero H₂O, but become noticeable as H₂O increases, tendingto counteract the H₂O. The interaction between H₂O and CO₂ causesthe solubility of CO₂ at vapour saturation to increase withincreasing H₂O, for small amounts of H₂O. Neglect of the influenceof CO₂ in some previous studies on the hydrous partial meltingof natural peridotite may explain apparent inconsistencies betweenthe results. The effect of small amounts of H₂O on multiplysaturated melt compositions at 1·1 GPa is similar tothat of K₂O, i.e. increasing H₂O or K₂O leads to quartz-normativecompositions, but increasing Na₂O produces an almost oppositetrend, towards nepheline-normative compositions. KEY WORDS: H₂O; CO₂; FTIR; hydrous partial melting; mantle melting; spinel lherzolite; system CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂ ± H₂O ± CO₂ ± Na₂O     

Petrogenesis of Tertiary Mafic Alkaline Magmas in the Hocheifel, Germany

Primitive nephelinites and basanites from the Tertiary Hocheifelarea of Germany (part of the Central European Volcanic Province;CEVP) have high Mg-number (>0·64), high Cr and Nicontents and strong light rare earth element enrichment butsystematic depletion in Rb, K and Ba relative to trace elementsof similar compatibility in anhydrous mantle. Alkali basaltsand more differentiated magmatic rocks have lower Mg-numberand lower abundances of Ni and Cr, and have undergone fractionationof mainly olivine, clinopyroxene, Fe–Ti oxide, amphiboleand plagioclase. Some nephelinites and basanites approach theSr–Nd–Pb isotope compositions inferred for the EAR(European Asthenospheric Reservoir) component. The Nd–Sr–Pbisotope composition of the differentiated rocks indicates thatassimilation of lower crustal material has modified the compositionof the primary mantle-derived magmas. Rare earth element meltingmodels can explain the petrogenesis of the most primitive maficmagmatic rocks in terms of mixing of melt fractions from anamphibole-bearing garnet peridotite source with melt fractionsfrom an amphibole-bearing spinel peridotite source, both sourcescontaining residual amphibole. It is inferred that amphibolewas precipitated in the asthenospheric mantle beneath the Hocheifel,close to the garnet peridotite–spinel peridotite boundary,by metasomatic fluids or melts from a rising mantle diapir orplume. Melt generation with amphibole present suggests relativelylow mantle potential temperatures (<1200°C); thus themantle plume is not thermally anomalous. A comparison of recentlypublished Ar/Ar ages for Hocheifel basanites with the geochemicaland isotopic composition of samples from this study collectedat the same sample sites indicates that eruption of earlierlavas with an EM signature was followed by the eruption of laterlavas derived from a source with EAR or HIMU characteristics,suggesting a contribution from the advancing plume. Thus, theHocheifel area represents an analogue for magmatism during continentalrift initiation, during which interaction of a mantle plumewith the overlying lithosphere may have led to the generationof partial melts from both the lower lithosphere and the asthenosphere. KEY WORDS: alkali basalts; continental volcanism; crustal contamination; partial melting; Eifel, Germany     

用双侧向测井响应求取地层参数的Newton－SVD反演方法

针对测井中经常遇到的完全非均匀的地层模型，利用深、浅双侧向测井的视电阻率曲线作为约束条件，给出了反演侵入半径ｒ_ｉ、原状地层电阻率Ｒ_ｔ、上（下）围岩电阻率Ｒ_{ｓｕ（Ｒｓｄ）的Ｎｅｗｔｏｎ－ＳＶＤ反演方法．数值模拟表明这一方法是可行的，经实际资料处理．说明该方法实用．}     

昆仑山地区冻融土导热系数试验测试与预测模型研究

为探究青藏高原工程走廊带昆仑山地区冻融土导热系数基本特征,采用瞬态平面热源法对钻取的349组冻土试样和245组融土试样导热系数进行了测试,分析了五类土导热系数分布特征及天然含水率、干密度与导热系数的偏相关性,并以两者为变量因素建立了经验公式拟合、支持向量回归（SVR）和径向基（RBF）神经网络导热系数预测模型。结果表明:冻融土导热系数整体均呈粗颗粒土大于细颗粒土特征,且冻土和融土导热系数随土性分布规律存在差异;天然含水率、干密度与导热系数均呈正相关性,不同土类偏相关性结果差异明显,典型土导热系数二元经验回归方程表现为非线性拟合结果。对比三种预测模型下各典型土冻融土导热系数预测结果,全风化千枚岩、角砾及砾砂三种预测模型效果整体较佳,粉土的SVR及RBF神经网络预测精度较好;融土导热系数预测效果整体略优于冻土,SVR及RBF神经网络模型下角砾、粉土及全风化千枚岩融土导热系数预测精度较高。综合导热系数模型预测效果和误差结果分析可得,SVR和RBF神经网络模型预测效果显著优于经验方程拟合,后者针对部分土性拟合效果相对较好,可满足一般工程估算需求;SVR和RBF神经网络预测模型针对不同土性导热系数预测效果呈差异性变化,整体预测效果相当,且预测精度更高、应用土性范围更广。     

Petrogenesis,Geodynamics and Radioactivity of the Granitic Rocks of the Nugrus Weakness Zone,South Eastern Desert,Egypt

The studied granitic bodies belong to the south Eastern Desert of Egypt. They extend in a NNW–SSE trend along the same strike of the Nugrus weakness zone by which they are structurally controlled. These rocks are composed of biotite and biotite-muscovite monzogranites to syenogranites. Geochemically, a higher abundance of Ba and Rb in biotite granites with a relatively low abundance in biotite-muscovite granites as well as the diversity of Th, U, Nb, Ta, Zr, and REE reflects their origin from different sources and geodynamic settings. The biotite granites are predominantly metaluminous to low peraluminous whereas the biotite-muscovite granites have a peraluminous nature. Potassium enrichment at the expense of calcium in these rocks reflects a derivation from crustal sources by partial melting in the presence of a volatile system. Radiometric investigation showed high abundances of U(up to 38 ppm) and Th(up to 26 ppm) in biotite-muscovite granites relative to biotite granites(up to 5 ppm U and 18 ppm Th). Radioactive anomalies furthermore have been recorded in parts of biotite-muscovite granites that were affected by the faults(up to 116 ppm eU and 97 ppm eTh). Consequently, biotite-muscovite granites form a potentially fertile source for uranium mineralization.     

江西信江盆地晚白垩世塘边组成壤碳酸盐岩碳、氧同位素特征

利用古土壤成壤碳酸盐岩稳定同位素组成估算古代大气CO_2浓度,是当前古气候环境研究的重要手段。对采自江西信江盆地晚白垩世圭峰群塘边组的成壤碳酸盐岩碳、氧同位素测试表明,δ13C(PDB)值在-4.30‰~-2.10‰之间,平均值为-2.84‰。δ18O(PDB)值在-6.62‰~-1.14‰之间,平均值为-3.62‰。由Cerling经验公式估算出晚白垩世Campanian晚期约75 Ma的大气CO_2浓度在782~1 420 ppmv之间,平均值为1 181 ppmv,是当今大气CO_2浓度的2~4倍。因此,基于信江盆地塘边组成壤碳酸盐岩的大气CO_2浓度估算结果,可能指示了晚白垩世Campanian晚期存在一个大气CO_2浓度高峰值,反映了晚白垩世大气CO_2浓度的波动性。     

黄河流域降水格局及影响因素北大核心CSCD

黄河流域位于干旱、半干旱与半湿润过渡地带,是中国重要的经济地带和生态屏障,研究流域降水时空格局及其对多驱动因素的响应具有重要意义。本文分析了近70年降水的时空格局规律、多尺度特征以及降水对不同气象要素与环流因子的响应。结果表明:黄河流域降水量呈下降趋势,降水变率为-0.88 mm/10a,而上游地区呈增加趋势。流域降水存在显著的年周期尺度;年际周期尺度为主导模态,集合经验模态分解(EEMD)的累积方差贡献率为94.85%。偏小波相干性(PWC)分析表明蒸散量为降水多尺度特征的主导气象因素,气象因素主要调制降水的季节性与年周期,环流因子主导降水的年际和年代际周期;不同类型因素的耦合可以增强对降水在所有周期尺度的解释能力。     

结构化标记转换系统的部分互模拟与共变-逆变模拟

结构化标记转换系统是经典标记转换系统的一种扩充,在处理转换系统之间的模拟关系时考虑了标记本身的结构。结构化标记转换系统间的部分互模拟与共变-逆变模拟之间存在诸多相似之处,为了更深入地研究两者的关系,引入Institution框架。基于该框架,讨论了部分互模拟关系与共变-逆变模拟关系之间的关系,并证明前者到后者存在Institution态射,结果表明,在结构化标记转换系统中,相比部分互模拟关系,共变-逆变模拟关系具有更强的表达能力。     

Robust flood statistics: comparison of peak over threshold approaches based on monthly maxima and TL-moments

ABSTRACT

Flood quantile estimation based on partial duration series (peak over threshold, POT) represents a noteworthy alternative to the classical annual maximum approach since it enlarges the available information spectrum. Here the POT approach is discussed with reference to its benefits in increasing the robustness of flood quantile estimations. The classical POT approach is based on a Poisson distribution for the annual number of exceedences, although this can be questionable in some cases. Therefore, the Poisson distribution is compared with two other distributions (binomial and Gumbel-Schelling). The results show that only rarely is there a difference from the Poisson distribution. In the second part we investigate the robustness of flood quantiles derived from different approaches in the sense of their temporal stability against the occurrence of extreme events. Besides the classical approach using annual maxima series (AMS) with the generalized extreme value distribution and different parameter estimation methods, two different applications of POT are tested. Both are based on monthly maxima above a threshold, but one also uses trimmed L-moments (TL-moments). It is shown how quantile estimations based on this “robust” POT approach (rPOT) become more robust than AMS-based methods, even in the case of occasional extraordinary extreme events.

Editor M.C. Acreman Associate editor A. Viglione