Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Smart 3D数据的三维模型重建

针对Smart 3D生成的实景三维模型是一个三角网集合,并不能直接应用于数字城市建设、土地利用管理与城市规划的问题,该文提出了Smart 3D数据三维模型重建的方法:研究了基于分割过滤方法,提取高精度数字高程模型;基于参数化建模、纹理重建方法构建了建筑物三维模型。利用敦化市的倾斜影像进行了实验。实验结果表明:三维重建模型精度高、效果好、提高了自动化的程度,实现了城市建筑物模型的单体化。     

雨水入渗对非饱和土坡稳定性影响的参数研究

很多国家和地区的斜坡失稳与雨水入渗有密切关系。通过参数分析研究可以深化对这种关系的认识和理解,因而对滑坡灾害的预测和预防有重要意义。针对香港地区一种典型非饱和土斜坡,用有限元法模拟雨水入渗引起的暂态渗流场,然后将计算得到的暂态孔隙水压力分布用于斜坡的极限平衡分析。计算中采用延伸的摩尔－库伦破坏准则以便考虑基质吸力对抗剪强度的贡献,研究了降雨特征、水文地质条件及坡面防渗处理等因素对暂态渗流场和斜坡安全因数的影响。数值模拟结果表明：降雨强度、降雨历时和雨型对暂态渗流场及斜坡稳定性有明显的影响;土体的渗透系数,尤其是渗透系数各向异性的影响特别显著;斜坡中相对隔水层的存在以及斜坡防渗护面的效果等因素的影响均不容忽视。     

减震结构中的粘弹性阻尼器参数优化

研究了粘弹性阻尼器在结构减震控制中的参数优化问题。从性价比的角度提出r优化目标函数,建立了阻尼器的参数优化模型。以一单层框架为例,分别选用非线性规划中的复形法和通过调用MATLAB程序优化工具箱中Fmincon函数（简称Fmincon函数法）两种方法,编制丁相应的优化分析程序,对粘弹性阻尼器在单层框架结构减震控制中的参数优化进行丁分析。研究结果表明,两种优化算法都达到了预期的目标,实现了目标函数最小化。     

带防屈曲支撑的钢管混凝土框架抗震性能参数分析

设置防屈曲支撑的钢管混凝土框架是一种新型钢管混凝土减震结构。采用有限元软件Opensees对设置防屈曲支撑的单层单跨钢管混凝土减震框架进行数值模拟,研究了框架梁柱线刚度比、防屈曲支撑初始刚度以及钢管混凝土柱轴压比等设计参数对该减震结构抗震性能的影响。研究结果表明：1数值模拟和试验结果吻合较好,验证了有限元模型的正确性;2梁柱线刚度比在0.1~0.3之间变化时,钢管混凝土减震框架的抗震性能较好;3BRB耗能支撑的初始刚度K1在40~80kN/mm变化时,减震框架的耗能减震效应较明显;4在合理的钢管混凝土柱轴压比范围内,当轴压比较大时,在钢管混凝土框架中设置防屈曲支撑能明显地提高结构的耗能能力和改善结构的强度退化现象。     

正规化矩阵正定时半参数估计量的统计性质

利用补偿最小二乘原理构造加权惩罚平方和,得到半参数模型中正规化矩阵正定时参数和半参数的估计量.从偶然误差的统计特征出发,详细讨论这种平差方法得到的参数估值的一些统计性质,并对半参数平差与最小二乘法的参数估计值进行比较.理论分析表明,通过选取合适的平滑参数,半参数平差方法优于最小二乘法.另外从数理统计的角度对平滑参数的选取进行分析,得到平滑参数的取值范围,也给出了平滑参数对模型精度的影响.     

土钉支护基坑抗隆起稳定性计算方法研究

以基坑隆起破坏的根本原因是地基承载力不足为前提,运用Terzaghi地基极限承载力理论,推导了土钉支护条件下基坑抗隆起稳定性的计算方法。采用地基土单侧滑动失稳破坏假设,同时考虑了单侧滑动体上竖向抗剪力对抵抗基坑隆起所起的作用。通过基本算例,对影响基坑抗隆起稳定性的参数进行了讨论,并得出了各抗隆起安全系数与各因素之间的部分变化规律。与现有的基坑抗隆起稳定性计算方法对比分析表明,所建议的方法在实际工程应用中是可行的。     

Dependence of model-based extreme flood estimation on the calibration period: case study of the Kamp River (Austria)

Abstract

The Kamp River is a particularly interesting case study for testing flood frequency estimation methods, since it experienced a major flood in August 2002. Here, the Kamp catchment is studied in order to quantify the influence of such a remarkable flood event on the calibration of a rainfall–runoff model, in particular when it is used in a stochastic simulation method for flood estimation, by performing numerous rainfall–runoff model calibrations (based on split-sample and bootstrap tests). The results confirmed the usefulness of the multi-period and bootstrap testing schemes for identifying the dependence of model performance and flood estimates on the information contained in the calibration period. The August 2002 event appears to play a dominating role for the Kamp River, since the presence or absence of the event within the calibration sub-periods strongly influences the rainfall–runoff model calibration and the extreme flood estimations that are based on the calibrated model.     

A log‐normal spectral analysis of inorganic grain‐size distributions from a Canadian boreal lake core: Towards refining depositional process proxy data from high latitude lakes

Better methods for interpreting grain‐size spectra will enhance current understanding of past transport–depositional processes. A high‐resolution inorganic grain‐size dataset has been measured from a freeze core extracted from ‘Alberta Lake E’ a boreal fresh water lake 40 km east of the Athabasca Oil Sands in north‐eastern Alberta, Canada. The grain‐size spectra are remarkably consistent throughout the core, exhibiting a structure comprising six persistent grain‐size distributions below ca 250 μm, plus a rare medium‐sand distribution. Automated deconvolution of the grain‐size spectra produced poor results. Constraining the modes of two of the distributions produced deconvolution solutions that were statistically excellent and consistent with the structure of each spectrum. Statistical analysis of the ‘constrained’ solutions indicates that deconvolution successfully extracted independent grain‐size populations. Conversely, the multimodal spectra generate traditional measures (for example, mean grain size) that are inconsistent combinations of different individual populations and thus are poor proxies of transport–depositional processes. Alberta Lake E is situated in a boreal wetland landscape where sediment delivery is dominated by overland flow transport during spring melt. This context means that the Alberta Lake E grain‐size spectra can be interpreted to reflect: (i) a bedload component transported during short‐duration high discharge events that reflect the intensity of the melt; and (ii) a finer suspended load component representing material whose magnitude is controlled by the volume of the spring melt. Stratigraphically, bedload and suspended load populations demonstrate different short‐wavelength and long‐wavelength cyclicity, suggesting that spring melt is likely to be driven by cyclic external forcing factors. The links between the grain‐size spectra and spring melt have potential for generating proxy records that better capture the external controls over spring melt in boreal systems and the risks associated with these energetic hydrodynamics. This is exemplified by the coarsest Alberta Lake E distributions, which indicate that more intense spring‐melt dynamics occurred in pre‐historical times.     

基于响应面法的高堆石坝瞬变-流变参数反演方法

如何准确确定原级配堆石体的力学参数是高堆石坝建设中亟待解决的一个关键问题,参数反演是解决这一问题的可行方法之一,传统的参数反演方法因需要进行大量的有限元正分析,其计算工作量大,反演效率较低。响应面法可以有效克服以上问题,但已有方法仅针对堆石体的瞬变参数,未考虑流变参数,不能满足堆石坝长期变形预测的需要。综合考虑瞬变和流变参数,通过构造更加合理的响应面函数,提出了基于响应面法的高堆石坝瞬变-流变材料参数反演方法,大大提高了反演的效率和精度。以水布垭面板堆石坝为例,采用该方法对坝体瞬变和流变参数进行了反演分析。反演结果表明,计算值与实测值在数值和变化规律上总体符合较好,反演结果合理可靠且更加高效。