Statistics for Modeling Heavy Tailed Distributions in Geology: Part I. Methodology

Many natural phenomena exhibit size distributions that are power laws or power law type distributions. Power laws are specific in the sense that they can exhibit extremely long or heavy tails. The largest event in a sample from such distribution usually dominates the underlying physical or generating process (floods, earthquakes, diamond sizes and values, incomes, insurance). Often, the practitioner is faced with the difficult problem of predicting values far beyond the highest sample value and designing his system either to profit from them, or to protect against extreme quantiles. In this paper, we present a novel approach to estimating such heavy tails. The estimation of tail characteristics such as the extreme value index, extreme quantiles, and percentiles (rare events) is shown to depend primarily on the number of extreme data that are used to model the tail. Because only the most extreme data are useful for studying tails, thresholds must be selected above which the data are modeled as power laws. The mean square error (MSE) is used to select such thresholds. A semiparametric bootstrap method is developed to study estimation bias and variance and to derive confidence limits. A simulation study is performed to assess the accuracy of these confidence limits. The overall methodology is applied to the Harvard Central Moment Tensor catalog of global earthquakes.     

空区参数法在新疆天山地区地震预报中的应用研究

应用吉尔吉斯斯坦地震研究所介绍的空区参数法，对新疆天山地区进行分时空扫描计算和Ｒ值评分检验，筛选出有一定预报效能的１０个小区，确定了异常判据和预测规则。１９９３年１０月，根据Ａ１、Ａ２小区出现的空区参数异常，对１９９３年１２月１日疏附６．０级地震作出预报，预报三要互完全正确。     

基于参数统计的DEM粗差探测算法

基于参数统计的DEM粗差探测算法利用双线性内插法计算某点的高程估值,并以此进行粗差检测,方法简单易行。文中以Kriging法取代原有的内插算法,使高程估值的计算更加符合实际的分布。试验证明基于半变异函数的Kriging内插法较传统方法更为准确,也使原有算法的可靠性得到进一步的提高。     

Tracking rapidly changing dynamical systems using a non‐parametric statistical method based on wavelets

A non‐parametric statistical method of tracking rapidly changing dynamical systems is introduced. The method implements the non‐linear wavelet thresholding estimator to estimate the evolutionary transfer function of the system. The consistency and optimality of the resulting estimate of our method on rapidly changing systems are stated, while no linear estimator can achieve the same optimality. Two examples of real data are studied using this non‐parametric method, including two vertical seismic array case studies and a series of seismic slope experiments. The analysis results are consistent with previous research for the vertical seismic array data. Moreover, our estimate is superior to those from previous research in the sense that our estimate is neither over‐smoothed nor under‐smoothed. The ana‐ lysis results are also consistent with the experimental observations for the seismic slope experimental data. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于ZigBee技术的商场定位系统建立

ZigBee室内定位系统利用优化的参数化算法计算位置坐标。由于信号传输距离影响定位精度,实验利用不同的定位网络布设方式来确定信号传输距离对定位精度的影响程度,从而找出最佳的布设方式。建立定位系统来满足在商场中对人和物品的定位,进而节约工程成本。     

Validation of Daily Amplitude of Sea Surface Temperature Evaluated with a Parametric Model Using Satellite Data

The authors have verified a regression model for the evaluation of the daily amplitude of sea surface temperature (ΔSST) proposed by Kawai and Kawamura (2002). The authors investigated the accuracy of satellite data used for the evaluation and showed that ΔSST error caused by satellite data error is less than ±0.7 K. The evaluated ΔSSTs were compared with in situ values. Its root-mean-square error is about 0.3 K or less, except for a coastal region, and it has a bias of more than +0.1 K in the tropics. This bias can be removed by considering latent heat flux. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

反复荷载下型钢混凝土柱受扭损伤试验研究

为研究型钢混凝土柱在反复荷载下的受扭损伤,完成了11根型钢混凝土柱和1根钢筋混凝土柱复合受扭试验。通过试验观察了构件的受力过程和破坏特征,研究两种不同型钢混凝土柱的裂缝开展与分布规律。基于能量守恒定律,考察了柱截面配钢形式、扭弯比、轴压比、混凝土强度等级、配箍率以及配钢率对累积损伤的影响。研究结果表明:型钢混凝土柱的损伤演变分为3个阶段:弹性阶段、弹塑性阶段和破坏阶段;配钢形式、扭弯比和配箍率是影响型钢混凝土柱损伤程度的重要因素;配型钢,降低扭弯比和提高配箍率对于损伤指标分别最大降低了22.1%、14.3%和14.0%;损伤指标受轴压比、配钢率和混凝土强度等级影响程度较小。     

隧道断面截取曲面拟合优化的点云简化方法

为了提高变形监测中地铁隧道断面点截取的效率,文章提出了基于kd-tree和法向量估计的局部点云简化方法,对BaySAC算法的三维激光点云二次参数曲面拟合方法进行改进:利用kd-tree建立点云数据的空间拓扑关系,计算出每个数据点的k邻域;然后使用平面拟合方法获取法矢量;最后根据点云数据法矢量变化程度,采用法矢量自适应得到压缩后的点云数据。实验证明该方法既能较大程度地简化点云,简化结果比较均匀,又具有不破坏细小特征的特点,进一步改进了BaySAC算法的二次参数曲面拟合方法。