Driving a lumped hydrological model with precipitation output from weather generators of different complexity

ABSTRACT

This paper deals with the question of whether a lumped hydrological model driven with lumped daily precipitation time series from a univariate single-site weather generator can produce equally good results compared to using a multivariate multi-site weather generator, where synthetic precipitation is first generated at multiple sites and subsequently lumped. Three different weather generators were tested: a univariate “Richardson type” model, an adapted univariate Richardson type model with an improved reproduction of the autocorrelation of precipitation amounts and a semi-parametric multi-site weather generator. The three modelling systems were evaluated in two Alpine study areas by comparing the hydrological output with respect to monthly and daily statistics as well as extreme design flows. The application of a univariate Richardson type weather generator to lumped precipitation time series requires additional attention. Established parametric distribution functions for single-site precipitation turned out to be unsuitable for lumped precipitation time series and led to a large bias in the hydrological simulations. Combining a multi-site weather generator with a hydrological model produced the least bias.     

Bootstrap Pettitt test for detecting change points in hydroclimatological data: case study of Itaipu Hydroelectric Plant,Brazil

ABSTRACT

The Pettitt test is widely used in climate change and hydrological analyses. However, studies show difficulties of this test in detecting change points, especially in small samples. This study presents a bootstrap application of the Pettitt test, and compares it numerically with the classical Pettitt test by an extensive Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed test outperforms the classical test in all simulated scenarios. An application of the tests is conducted on the historical series of naturalized flows of the Itaipu Hydroelectric Plant in Brazil, for which several studies have shown a change point in the 1970s. When the series is split into shorter sub-series, to simulate actual situations of small samples, the proposed test is more powerful than the classical Pettitt test in detecting the change point. The proposed test can be an important tool for detecting abrupt changes in water availability, in support of hydroclimatological resources decision making.     

Comparison of non-parametric and parametric water temperature models on the Nivelle River,France

Abstract

Water temperature is an important abiotic variable in aquatic habitat studies and may be one of the factors limiting the potential fish habitat (e.g. salmonids) in a stream. Stream water temperatures are modelled using statistical approaches with air temperature and streamflow as exogenous variables in the Nivelle River, southern France. Two different models are used to model mean weekly maximum temperature data: a non-parametric approach, the k-nearest neighbours method (k-NN) and a parametric approach, the periodic autoregressive model with exogenous variables (PARX). The k-NN is a data-driven method, which consists of finding, at each point of interest, a small number of neighbours nearest to this value, and the prediction is estimated based on these neighbours. The PARX model is an extension of commonly-used autoregressive models in which parameters are estimated for each period within the years. Different variants of air temperature and flow are used in the model development. In order to test the performance of these models, a jack-knife technique is used, whereby model goodness of fit is assessed separately for each year. The results indicate that both models give good performances, but the PARX model should be preferred, because of its good estimation of the individual weekly temperatures and its ability to explicitly predict water temperature using exogenous variables.     

A multi-subwaveform parametric retracker of the radar satellite altimetric waveform and recovery of gravity anomalies over coastal oceans

The quality of satellite radar altimetric data is very important in studies of geodesy,geophysics,and oceanography.Over coastal oceans,altimeter waveforms are contaminated by the terrain and physical environments so that the accuracy of altimeter data is lower than that over open oceans.Here we develop a new multi-subwaveform parametric retracker(MSPR) to improve the quality of altimeter data for the recovery of gravity anomaly in coastal oceans.The least squares collocation method is used to recover the residual gravity anomaly over the coastal water from altimetric data.The waveform data records from Geosat/GM around Taiwan Island are practically retracked with MSPR.When compared with the Taiwan geoid height,the results retracked by MSPR are more accurate than those retracked by the well-known β-5-parmeter method and from the geophysical data records(GDRs).The gravity anomalies over Taiwan coastal waters are calculated from the retracked altimeter data with the least squares collocation.When we compared gravity anomalies computed using altimeter GDRs with the ship-borne gravity data over Taiwan coastal ocean,we found that the results from retracked data are more accurate than those from GDRs.     

上覆压力和剪胀作用下土钉抗拔的有限元模拟

灌浆土钉在边坡加固工程中有着广泛的应用。土钉在不同条件下的抗拔机制仍是进一步研究的课题。通过建立一个三维有限元模型,研究土钉在不同上覆压力和剪胀作用下的土钉抗拔行为。采用摩尔-库仑模型模拟花岗岩土,土与土钉界面采用“接触对”和库仑摩擦模型描述。模型可以模拟土钉发生较大抗拔位移下发生滑移破坏的过程。模型参数通过三轴试验结果进行校正。通过与大尺寸室内抗拔试验结果相比较,验证了模型的有效性。模型展现了土钉在钻孔后和抗拔过程中土钉周围的土压力的变化。最后通过参数分析,研究了上覆压力和剪胀对土钉抗拔力的影响。结果显示,当上覆压力较小时,剪胀角对抗拔应力的影响较小。随着上覆压力的增加,剪胀角对抗拔应力的影响变得更加明显。     

Identification of the hysteretic behaviour of a partial‐strength steel–concrete moment‐resisting frame structure subject to pseudodynamic tests

In low‐rise steel‐concrete composite structures, moment‐resisting frames can be designed to develop a ductile response in beam‐to‐column joints and column bases by activating flexural yielding of beams and end plates, shear yielding of column web panel zones and yielding of anchors. To evaluate the performance of these components under differing earthquake intensities, a series of pseudodynamic, quasistatic cyclic and vibration tests were carried out on a two‐storey two‐bay moment resisting structure. The performance‐based seismic design and control of these structures requires that stiffness degradation, strength deterioration and slip are properly modelled. In this context, compact hysteretic models can play a key role and must therefore be striven for. Nonetheless, relevant techniques, like nonlinear system identification, are far from representing standard and reliable tools for the dynamic characterization of full‐scale structural systems. With this objective in mind, we present a restoring force surface‐based technique applied to pseudodynamic test data, in view of the nonlinear identification of multistorey frames. The technique is developed by means of a parametric approach, where a time‐variant stiffness operator is coupled to a modified Bouc–Wen model that allows both for slip and for degradation in stiffness. Strength deterioration is indirectly taken into account too. We also show how model‐based parameters can be correlated to the damage process progressively observed both in the structure and in its components. Finally, the predictive capabilities of the identified model are highlighted. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

标准升温条件下PEC柱耐火极限理论分析及简化计算

基于ABAQUS软件建立了标准升温条件下局部填充混凝土（Partially Encaed Concrete,简称PEC）柱抗火性能分析的有限元模型,计算了火灾下PEC柱的变形曲线及耐火极限,计算结果得到了已有试验数据的验证。利用上述模型分析了截面几何参数、材料物理参数、荷载比及偏心率等因素对耐火极限的影响。在参数分析的基础上,建立了标准升温条件下PEC耐火极限简化计算方法。结果表明：无耐火保护PEC柱的耐火极限一般达不到现有抗火标准的要求;荷栽比、长细比和截面周长是影响PEC柱耐火极限的主要因素;该耐火极限简化计算方法可供工程设计参考。     

Thermomechanical analysis of long-term global modal and local deformation measurements of the Kishwaukee bridge using the bootstrap

In this paper we present a comparative analysis of global frequency and local deformation data for a large concrete bridge. The asymptotic probability distributions of the central statistics are presented, and compared with empirical bootstrap estimates. Bootstrapped distributions are calculated from reference data obtained during 1999-2000 and used to develop change-point alarm criteria for the structure, using reasonable sensitivity measures developed from FEM simulations and structural analysis. The implications of the frequency data are discussed in conjunction with the strain and displacement measurements in order to discern if the load carrying capacity of the bridge has been affected. The critical need for more advanced temperature compensation models for large structures continually in thermal disequilibrium is discussed.     

涡激致顶张力立管双频参量共振研究

研究了涡激力作用导致顶张力立管基于双频激励的参量共振机理。随着海洋油气开发走向深水,参量共振成为深海立管设计面临的挑战之一。立管系统一旦发生参量共振,将因应力过大或疲劳损伤而发生破坏,造成油气泄漏从而带来环境污染和重大经济损失。顶张力立管受涡激力作用产生横向运动,引起轴向张力波动,满足一定条件时,立管将发生参量共振。目前研究多以单频外激励探讨立管的马修不稳定性,而实际激励为多频叠加,因此双频外激励被提出并被应用于对立管参量稳定性的探讨。研究建立了顶张力立管非线性耦合的运动方程,并推导了多频激励马修方程,采用布勃诺夫-伽辽金法求解有阻尼马修方程,对比分析了单频和双频激励对顶张力立管参量稳定性的影响,探讨了双频激励马修方程设计深海顶张力立管参量稳定性的应用。研究表明:涡激致顶张力立管产生轴向应力波动,进而导致立管系统发生参量共振的现象值得设计人员关注;此外,实际工程设计中激励函数的选取,对被研究系统参量稳定性特性以及阻尼特性的预测具有决定性影响。