This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone (TC) vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds. It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall, which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution. In contrast, the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall. These led to stronger boundary layer inflow, stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall, and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall. These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall, followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC. Our study demonstrates that accurate in- itialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC. Additionally, monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs. 相似文献
The influence of land use and land cover on ecological environment is a focus of global change research. The paper chooses an industrial city-Shuicheng in Guizhou Province-as a study area because the karst water quality around the city is deteriorating with land use and land cover change. The natural susceptibility of karst water system is an important factor leading to karst water pollution. But land use and land cover change is also a main factor according to the chemical analysis of karst water quality and land use change. So it is a good way to protect karst water through rational planning and managing of land use and land cover. 相似文献
The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances. 相似文献
We applied an image correlation method to Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1 (JERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data obtained from 1996 to 1998 to examine flow velocity within Shirase Glacier, Antarctica. From the grounding line to the downstream region of the glacier, the obtained ice-flow velocity was systematically higher on the western streamline than the eastern. The differences between the two streamlines were 0.31 km/a in 1996 and 0.37 km/a in 1998, significantly larger than the error estimate of 0.03 km/a. The direction of ice flow was about 312° at the grounding line and changed to 327° at 10 km, 346° at 20 km and 2° at 30 km downstream from the grounding line. The total accumulated deflection is 50° to the east. Under the assumption of the conservation of ice mass across the glacier, the observed eastward change in flow direction can be explained by an asymmetric deepening of bedrock topography, that is, across the 8 km width of the glacier, the eastern side is 50 m (10%) deeper than the western side. This eastward turning of flow direction appears to be accelerated by tributary inlets, that flow to the north and northeast at 60–75% of the velocity of inlets on the western streamline. 相似文献