Maximum likelihood estimation of Gutenberg-Richterb parameter for uncertain magnitude values

The maximum likelihood estimation of theb parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter relation is extended to the case of uncertain magnitude. An interval which contains the real unknown magnitude is used rather than the uncertain magnitude itself. The proposed approach is very flexible, it allows for the combination of the parts of a catalog of different quality into a single minimally biased set of recurrence parameters.On leave from the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-973 Warsaw, Pasteura 3, Poland     

Unbiased estimation of flood risk with the GEV distribution

Conventional flood frequency analysis is concerned with providing an unbiased estimate of the magnitude of the design flow exceeded with the probabilityp, but sampling uncertainties imply that such estimates will, on average, be exceeded more frequently. An alternative approach is therefore, to derive an estimator which gives an unbiased estimate of flow risk: the difference between the two magnitudes reflects uncertainties in parameter estimation. An empirical procedure has been developed to estimate the mean true exceedance probabilities of conventional estimates made using a GEV distribution fitted by probability weighted moments, and adjustment factors have been determined to enable the estimation of flood magnitudes exceeded with, on average, the desired probability.     

FFT实现物理大地测量边值问题类型转换

本文讨论了用快速付里叶变换(FFT)由大地水准面高度数据反算重力异常数据,由此提出了用FFT实现物理大地测量过值问题类型转换这一思想,并与正交基函数法进行了比较,从而得出运用FFT这一方法能达到简化边值问题本身和运算步骤以及节省计算时间的目的。     

水溶液的pH值对铀沉淀的影响

形成酸性或碱性含铀溶液,而后又发生中和作用,这是形成铀矿床的一对极有利的条件。接近中性的水介质有利于铀的沉淀。中和作用是各种铀沉淀作用的触发钮。由中和作用引起的铀的还原沉淀作用称为中和还原作用。铀的还原沉淀是在水-铀比电位值△Eh_水~U<0的条件下发生的(△Eh_水~U=Eh_水-Eh_0~U)。铀的还原沉淀不仅是依靠Eh_水的降低,同时与Eh_水~U的回升或下降速率有关。花岗岩铀矿床中往往不存在强烈的还原剂,热液上升过程中,一般很难提高它的还原能力,这时中和还原作用就显得格外重要。这是研究铀矿成矿机制和富矿条件的一条新线索。     

用振幅衰减系数和卓越频率衰减系数测定Q值的探讨

云南地区小震活动频繁,为充分利用这些小震所提供的信息,我们讨论了小震地震波振幅衰减系数和卓越频率衰减系数的变化,并探讨了这两个系数和Q值的关系。     

The two-component extreme value distribution for flood frequency analysis: Derivation of a new estimation method

The two component extreme value (TCEV) distribution has recently been shown to account for most of the characteristics of the real flood experience. A new method of parameter estimation for this distribution is derived using the principle of maximum entropy (POME). This method of parameter estimation is suitable for application in both the site-specific and regional cases and appears simpler than the maximum likelihood estimation method. Statistical properties of the regionalized estimation were evaluated using a Monte Carlo approach and compared with those of the maximum likelihood regional estimators.     

Least squares parameter estimation in chaotic differential equations

A recent least squares algorithm, which is designed to adapt implicit models to given sets of data, especially models given by differential equations or dynamical systems, is reviewed and used to fit the Hénon-Heiles differential equations to chaotic data sets.This numerical approach for estimating parameters in differential equation models, called theboundary value problem approach, is based on discretizing the differential equations like a boundary value problem,e.g. by a multiple shooting or collocation method, and solving the resulting constrained least squares problem with a structure exploiting generalized Gauss-Newton-Method (Bock, 1981).Dynamical systems like the Hénon-Heiles system which can have initial values and parameters that lead to positive Lyapunov exponents or phase space filling Poincaré maps give rise to chaotic time series. Various scenarios representing ideal and noisy data generated from the Hénon-Heiles system in the chaotic region are analyzedw.r.t. initial conditions, parameters and Lyapunov exponents. The original initial conditions and parameters are recovered with a given accuracy. The Lyapunov spectrum is then computed directly from the identified differential equations and compared to the spectrum of the true dynamics.presently at IWR, Universität Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 368, D-6900 Heidelberg, Germany     

Acidity of twelve northern New England (U.S.A.) lakes in recent centuries

Studies of sediment cores from 12 acidic lakes in granitic, forested and uninhabited catchments in northern New England, U.S.A. produced diatom-inferred pH (IpH) 5.2 to 5.8 and alkalinity (Ialk) –12 to 31 µeq l^–1, with slowly declining values at some lakes, for one to four centuries prior to logging. Increases of IpH (0.05 to 0.60) and Ialk (5 to 40 µeq l^–1) correlate with logging in the catchments in the early-1800s to early-1900s. Recovery to pre-logging IpH and Ialk correlates with forest succession toward conifers, and is completed in the late-1800s to mid-1900s. Beginning at 1915–1920 (4 lakes), 1930–1950 (4 lakes) and 1965–1970 (4 lakes), IpH and Ialk start decreasing below pre-logging values due to atmospheric acidic deposition, leading to respective total decreases of 0.10 to 0.45 (X=0.25) and 5 to 25 µeq l^–1 (X=15). Inputs of anthropogenic Pb, Zn, V, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and soot from the atmosphere are first detectable in early- to late-1800s sediment, and Cu in late-1800s sediment, increase rapidly in the late-1800s to mid-1900s, and level off or decrease since the 1960s — partly due to emission controls. Decreasing Ca, Mn, and possibly Zn relative to other metals and normalized to organic content, and increasing flux of Fe to the lakes, indicate soil and water acidification after 1900.This is the fourteenth of a series of papers to be published by this journal which is a contribution of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) project. Drs. D. F. Charles and D. R. Whitehead are guest editors for this series.     

碎石类土极限承载力标准值表的研究

以可靠度理论为基础的极限状态设计法是当今世界工程设计领域的发展趋势,地基基础要应用可靠度理论进行设计是一大难点,而地基极限承栽力标准值的确定是最重要的方面。利用原制订基本承载力时的荷载试验资料,再补充收集了一部分新资料,重新提出极限承载力,找出极限承栽力与基本承载力的关系值K(安全系数),将K值乘以基本承载力表,并以公式计算值及林业部标准进行比较。综合得出极限承载力范围值表,在此基础上进行概率分析,得出极限承载力标准值。通过直接或间接的方法求得极限承载力标准值变异系数。     

层状地基持力层承载力的确定

通过对层状地基的分析 ,提出了对层状地基持力层承载力进行修正的方法 ,并通过对同一住宅小区已沉降稳定的 2栋楼采用的承载力及使用情况分析 ,验正本方法的合理性