三种方法确定济南夏季日最大边界层高度的对比研究

基于济南站边界层风廓线雷达（wind profile radar,WPR）观测的大气折射率结构常数（Cn2）,采用偏离度法确定夏季白天边界层高度（HBL）,分别与基于L波段雷达探空资料的干绝热曲线法、基于地面气象观测资料的国标法确定的HBL进行对比。结果表明：1）三种方法确定的25 d日最大HBL的平均值分别为2 500.0 m、2 529.1 m、2 469.9 m,总体一致;25 d同日期比较,偏离度法与后两者的标准偏差（σ）分别为337.1 m、636.7 m;前两方法结果的相关系数（R）较高为0.668,但两者与国标法的R分别为-0.130、-0.064,证实国标法HBL的均值准确度尚可但实时值准确度低。2）偏离度法确定的日最大HBL出现时间,25 d平均和最多均在15时,逐小时HBL07—15时呈缓慢增高态势、15—19时则快速降低;但国标法日最大HBL25 d平均和最多均出现在16时,且HBL在午后13—15时出现坍塌现象,与对流边界层午后峰值规律显著不同。3）前两种方法的HBL与地表温度、气温的相关性均较好,与风速的相关性则较差;而国标法HBL与风速的相关性较好,与地表温度、气温的相关性则较差;偏离度法日最大HBL对最高气温、最高地表温度的平均响应时间分别为1、2 h左右,符合太阳辐射—地表温度—气温—HBL的响应关系和次序,但国标法的日最大HBL未能反映这一响应。4）偏离度法HBL与各污染物的逐小时质量浓度均呈显著负相关,但国标法HBL的相关性较差。5）三种方法综合对比,偏离度法HBL准确度较高,且能给出时空演变;干绝热曲线法HBL准确度较高,但不能给出时空演变;国标法实时HBL准确度低,虽能给出时空演变但午后峰值偏差大。     

中国电力行业碳排放达峰及减排潜力分析

推动电力行业低碳发展是中国有效控制CO₂排放和推动尽早达峰的重要抓手。在分别利用学习曲线工具和自下而上技术核算方式分析风电、光伏两类主要的可再生电力和其他各类电源发展趋势的基础上,综合评估了既有政策和强化政策条件下2035年前中国电力行业能源活动碳排放变化趋势。研究发现,既有政策情景下电力行业碳排放在2030年左右达到峰值,届时非化石能源在发电量中比重为44%,而通过强化推动能源绿色低碳发展的相关政策,2025年前即可达到电力行业碳排放峰值,2030年非化石电力在发电量中比重可以提升至51%,其中可再生电力加速发展将分别贡献2025、2030和2035年当年减排量（相对于既有政策情景）的45%、54%和62%。尽管从保障电力稳定安全供应角度,煤电装机仍有一定增长空间,但考虑到电力行业绿色低碳和可持续发展的长期需求,仍应加强对煤电装机的有效控制,“十四五”期间努力将煤电装机控制在11亿kW左右的水平。     

地震影像与瑞雷波法在探测地下障碍物中的应用

在工程建筑中经常遇到建筑物下方有供水、供气管道或地下防空洞等障碍物,准确测定其位置对其进行处理至关重要。文章结合两个工程实例,对地震影像法和瑞雷波法综合应用在解决这类工程施工中遇到的问题作了简明阐述,说明正确合理的应用该方法具有快速、经济,准确等优点。     

GPS水准多项式曲线拟合在水利工程中的应用

随着GPS应用技术的不断成熟,GPS定位测量获得大地高精度在逐渐提高。如何有效利用GPS水准测量把GPS高程转换成工程所需的正常高,成为了水利测量工作者非常关心的问题。本文以淮北矿业集团临涣工业基地引水工程为实例,采取多项式曲线方法进行了GPS水准拟合的深入研究,最后得出结论:在地形起伏不大的平原地区,通过多项式曲线拟合,所获得的正常高结果可以满足四等水准的精度要求,在带状测区的水利工程中可以取代几何水准测量。     

宝北低渗储层不同流动单元相对渗透率曲线的建立及应用

宝浪油田宝北区块是典型的低孔低渗油藏.在对本区流动单元判别分类的基础上,结合室内相对渗透率资料,运用相对渗透率曲线归一化的方法,建立了5类流动单元及其组合的相对渗透率曲线,并对不同流动单元及其组合的相对渗透率特征进行了定性和定量比较,确定了本区储层细分组合开采的优势组合为流动单元B与C的组合,通过水驱相关参数的计算实现...     

人造多晶冰三轴压缩强度特性试验研究

为研究冰的三轴强度特性,对人造宏观各向同性冰进行了不同温度和不同围压下的恒定加载速率三轴压缩试验,得到多晶冰三轴压缩的应力-应变曲线、抗压强度与温度之间的关系,利用莫尔-库仑强度准则分析了温度和围压对强度参数的影响.结果表明：轴向应变加载速率为1.67×10-4 s-1时,不同温度、不同围压下冰的应力-应变曲线均为应变...     

A diagnostic modelling framework to construct indices of biotic integrity: A case study of fish in the Zeeschelde estuary (Belgium)

We propose a coherent regression model building framework to construct fish-based indices. More specifically, we concentrate on the selection of an optimal set of metrics which remains a difficult problem. The paper departs from the observation that an index of biotic integrity (IBI) is analogous to a diagnostic model in medicine assessing the health condition of a patient from a series of biomarkers. In the same vein, an IBI is a diagnostic model predicting the ecosystem condition of a site from a set of (scored) metrics. Metrics are community attributes sensitive to anthropogenic pressure and their scores express the “distance to target” to a reference condition. In a medical context, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves are commonly used to assess the diagnostic accuracy of laboratory tests. An ROC curve plots the sensitivity of a test (Se; the capacity to detect a disease or degradation) as a function of its false positive fraction (FPF) which is the complement of the specificity (Sp = 1 - FPF; the capacity to recognise a healthy person or a reference condition). The ROC curve represents the strength of the index to discriminate between degraded and reference sites. Higher curves correspond to stronger tests as then a higher sensitivity can be combined with a lower false positive fraction. Hence, it is intuitively clear to use summary statistics of the ROC curve as criteria to optimise medical tests or biotic indices. In this paper, we illustrate the value of this modelling framework with a case study in the Zeeschelde estuary in Belgium. In essence, a “traditional” IBI is an average of metrics scoring relevant properties of the ecosystem. We demonstrate this average score model (AVG) is a special member of the more flexible predictive logistic model (PLM) family. The selection of a set of metrics becomes equivalent to variable selection in statistical model building. We apply model building techniques as best subsets regression to facilitate the search for an optimal suite of metrics from a candidate set and use cross-validation to avoid overfitting. The results show that a few metrics suffice to discriminate between most-impacted and least-impacted sites.     

陡坡密集点云双重滤波方法研究

用地形三维激光扫描仪监测陡坡表面的细微变化,关键技术之一是对原始点云的精确滤波,即从密集点云中准确滤除非地形点,保留真实地形点。针对地势陡峭、表面复杂、植被多、密度分布极不均匀的陡坡点云,笔者发展了一种双重滤波方法:在对原始点云进行投影面变换的基础上,采用变窗口均值限差法滤除明显的非地形点,完成粗滤波;通过局部区域增长法找出绝大多数地形点,以占优势的地形点为参考,用局部最小二乘曲面拟合法对剩余未分类数据点进行检核,分离出非地形点,完成精滤波。文中选用3个不同类型的陡坡点云实例验证了该方法对于陡坡密集点云具有良好的滤波效果。该算法对野外大场景三维激光扫描点云滤波也有一定的参考价值。     

Changes in stream flow regime in headwater catchments of the Yellow River basin since the 1950s

The headwater catchments of the Yellow River basin generate over 35% of the basin's total stream flow and play a vital role in meeting downstream water resources requirements. In recent years the Yellow River has experienced significant changes in its hydrological regime, including an increased number of zero‐flow days. These changes have serious implications for water security and basin management. We investigated changes in stream flow regime of four headwater catchments since the 1950s. The rank‐based non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect trends in annual stream flow. The results showed no significant trend for the period 1956 to 2000. However, change‐point analysis showed that a significant change in annual stream flow occurred around 1990, and hence the stream‐flow data can be divided into two periods: 1956–1990 and 1991–2000. There was a considerable difference in average annual stream flow between the two periods, with a maximum reduction of 51%. Wet‐season rainfall appears to be the main factor responsible for the decreasing trend in annual stream flow. Reductions in annual stream flow were associated with decreased interannual variability in stream flow. Seasonal stream flow distribution changed from bimodal to unimodal between the two periods, with winter stream flow showing a greater reduction than other seasons. Daily stream flow regime represented by flow duration curves showed that all percentile flows were decreased in the second period. The high flow index (Q₅/Q₅₀) reduced by up to 28%, whereas the reduction in the low flow index (Q₉₅/Q₅₀) is more dramatic, with up to 100% reduction. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.