Reliability assessment of serviceability performance of braced retaining walls using a neural network approach

In urban environments, one major concern with deep excavations in soft clay is the potentially large ground deformations in and around the excavation. Excessive movements can damage adjacent buildings and utilities. There are many uncertainties associated with the calculation of the ultimate or serviceability performance of a braced excavation system. These include the variabilities of the loadings, geotechnical soil properties, and engineering and geometrical properties of the wall. A risk‐based approach to serviceability performance failure is necessary to incorporate systematically the uncertainties associated with the various design parameters. This paper demonstrates the use of an integrated neural network–reliability method to assess the risk of serviceability failure through the calculation of the reliability index. By first performing a series of parametric studies using the finite element method and then approximating the non‐linear limit state surface (the boundary separating the safe and ‘failure’ domains) through a neural network model, the reliability index can be determined with the aid of a spreadsheet. Two illustrative examples are presented to show how the serviceability performance for braced excavation problems can be assessed using the reliability index. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

Predicting ground-motion variations at the Turkey-flat test site,California

Results of a single group participating in an international experiment are analyzed. The experiment served to verify computational predictions of the ground-motion variations due to near-surface geological effects at a site established for that purpose by the California Department of Conservation. Based on an acceleration record at a rock location, and geotechnical model of medium, records at the other locations of a nearby sedimentary deposit were predicted. A 2-D finite-difference sensitivity analysis suggested that the lateral wave-propagation effects are negligibly small, and locally 1-D computations are sufficient for the present site. Those computations are compared with observations not available to the authors during the blind prediction. Peak accelerations, peak velocities and RMS accelerations were predicted with errors less than 159%, 114% and 62%, respectively. Maxima of the response spectra were fitted within a factor of 2. The predicted and observed Husid's plots (i.e., the normalized cumulative plots of the acceleration squared) have the correlation coefficients 0.98. The detected misfits do not show any simple relation to the instrument location, component, frequency, or time.     

Focal mechanism inversion in the Giudicarie–Lessini seismotectonic region (Southern Alps, Italy): Insights on tectonic stress and strain

A set of 41 focal mechanisms (1989–2006) from P-wave first polarities is computed from relocated seismic events in the Giudicarie–Lessini region (Southern Alps). Estimated hypocentral depths vary from 3.1 to 20.8 km, for duration magnitudes (M_D) in the range 2.7–5.1. Stress and strain inversions are performed for two seismotectonic zones, namely G (Giudicarie) and L (Lessini). This subdivision is supported by geological evidence, seismicity distribution, and focal mechanism types. The available number of data (16 in G, 22 in L) does not make possible any further subdivisions. Seismotectonic zones G and L are undergoing different kinematic regimes: thrust with strike-slip component in G, and strike-slip in L. Principal stress and strain axes in each sub-region show similar orientations. The direction of maximum horizontal compressive stress is roughly perpendicular to the thrust fronts along the Giudicarie Belt in zone G, and compatible with right-lateral strike-slip reactivation of the faults belonging to the Schio-Vicenza system in zone L. On the whole, kinematic regimes and horizontal stress orientations show a good fit with other stress data from focal mechanisms and breakouts and with geodetic strain rate axes.     

A new method of estimating the ratio between in situ rock stresses and tectonics based on empirical and probabilistic analyses

This paper describes a new procedure for assessing the ratio between in situ stresses in rock masses by means of K (K = σ_H / σ_v, being σ_H and σ_v principal stress) and tectonics for purposes of engineering geology and rock mechanics. The method combines the use of the logic decision tree and the empirical relationship between the Tectonic Stress Index, TSI, and a series of K in situ values obtained from an extensive database. The decision tree considers geological and geophysical factors affecting stress magnitudes both on the regional and local scale. The TSI index is defined by geological and geomechanical parameters. The method proposed provides an assessment of the magnitude of horizontal stresses of tectonic origin. Results for several regions of Europe are presented and the possible applications of the procedure are discussed.     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

引水工程秦巴段隧洞地应力模拟及工程地质问题

利用Ansys有限元软件对三峡引水工程秦巴段线路不同深度、不同截面形态隧洞围岩的应力重分布情况进行模拟计算,得到圆形隧洞、城门形隧洞和马蹄形隧洞围岩的应力数值和等值线图.利用库仑一纳维尔强度准则,对花岗岩区及灰岩区隧洞围岩的剪切破坏进行分析;利用三种岩爆应力判别指标,对岩爆进行初步预测;进而对不同深度、不同截面形态的隧洞围岩的稳定性进行分析;最后对引水工程隧洞设计中截面形态的选择给出了初步建议.     

Nonlinear Analysis of Local Site Effects on Seismic Ground Response in the Bam Earthquake

The influence of local geologic and soil conditions on the intensity of ground shaking is addressed in this study. The amplification of the ground motion due to local site effects resulted in severe damage to dwellings in the Bam area during the 2003 Bam Earthquake. A unique set of strong motion acceleration recordings was obtained at the Bam accelerograph station. Although the highest peak ground acceleration recorded was the vertical component (nearly 1 g), the longitudinal component (fault-parallel motion) clearly had the largest maximum velocity as well as maximum ground displacement. Subsurface geotechnical and geophysical (down-hole) data in two different sites have been obtained and used to estimate the local site condition on earthquake ground motion in the area. The ground response analyses have been conducted considering the nonlinear behavior of the soil deposits using both equivalent linear and nonlinear approaches. The fully nonlinear method embodied in FLAC was used to evaluate the nonlinear soil properties on earthquake wave propagation through the soil layer, and compare with the response from the equivalent linear approach. It is shown that thick alluvium deposits amplified the ground motion and resulted in significant damage in residential buildings in the earthquake stricken region. The comparison of results indicated similar response spectra of the motions for both equivalent and nonlinear analyses, showing peaks in the period range of 0.3–1.5 s. However, the amplification levels of nonlinear analysis were less than the equivalent linear method especially in long periods. The observed response spectra are shown to be above the NEHRP building code design requirements, especially at high frequencies.     

海拉尔盆地贝西斜坡北部地区储层特征及影响因素分析

通过测井曲线的标准化处理及信息提取、岩心及录井岩屑观察、铸体薄片、物性分析、扫描电镜、压汞分析等技术手段,研究了海拉尔盆地贝西斜坡北部地区南屯组储层的主要岩性特征、物性特征、储集空间类型和影响因素.研究结果表明.海拉尔盆地南屯组以内陆湖相碎屑岩为主,主要包括角砾岩、砾岩、砂砾岩、粗砂岩、细砂岩、粉砂岩、泥质砂岩及泥岩等.南一段储层孔隙度平均值为6.15%,渗透率平均值为0.31 × 10-3μm2,为低孔特低渗型孔隙特征;南二段储层孔隙度平均值为12.18%,渗透率平均值为2.79× 10-3μm2,属于中孔低渗型孔隙特征.储集空间类型以粒间孔隙为主,发育一定的次生孔隙.喉道分为4种类型(Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类、Ⅲ类、Ⅳ类).扇三角洲前缘分支水道砂体、扇三角洲平原辫状河道砂体和滨浅湖砂坝微相砂体为该区有利的储层砂体类型.储层性质主要受沉积相和成岩作用影响.