统计业务管理系统设计的总体构思

利用内部网络使日常管理工作实现自动化、网络化、电子化。通常把软件的定义、开发、使用和维护，直到最终放弃称为软件的生命周期。利用以互联网技术为主导的最新信息技术，实现地勘行业，特别是为项目统计远程管理而专门进行研发的管理软件具有3个层次。基本流程是项目录入—项目执行—项目完成—资料汇总保存。系统开发需满足先进性和实用性，开放性和可靠性，灵活性和可扩展性。应做到层次清晰，界面友好，具有安全性和保密性。     

乾隆年间天山北麓东段人口迁移研究

清朝乾隆年间，清政府对新疆实行移民实地政策，人口大量迁移到新疆。天山北麓东段是新疆主要的人口迁入地区，其人口迁移分为民户迁移、商户迁移、遣户迁移、兵眷迁移和安插户迁移等几种类型，以民户迁移为主。移民的来源地以甘肃、陕西等邻近省份为主，人口迁移的方式以官府有组织的迁移为主、以民间自流的方式为辅。民户人口迁移的高峰在乾隆三十年代，乾隆四十五以后人口迁移规模变小，整个乾隆年间天山北麓东段人口迁移的规模为16．4万人左右，迁移人口主要分布在以乌鲁木齐和巴里坤为中心的两个地区。     

南极半岛地区气温与南极海冰涛动、ENSO的联系

使用南极半岛Orcadas等台站的气温多年观测资料 ,分析了南极半岛气温和周围海冰以及ENSO的初步联系。结果表明 ,南极半岛地区的气温变化可以反映南极海冰涛动的变化特征 :气温距平和南极半岛附近海冰距平存在密切的负相关 ,和罗斯海外围区域的海冰距平存在正相关关系 ,能够较好地反映出南极半岛气温与南极海冰涛动以及ENSO之间的紧密联系。当南极半岛地区气温偏低 (高 )时 ,南极半岛周围海冰偏多 (少 ) ,罗斯海外围海冰偏少 (多 ) ,赤道中东太平洋海温偏高 (低 ) ,可能出现ElNino(LaNina)。另外 ,南极半岛当年 1 0月的气温距平对预测次年 1月的Nino3区海温异常具有重要参考价值     

Effects of wave passage on the relevant dynamic properties of structures with flexible foundation

An evaluation of the wave passage effects on the relevant dynamic properties of structures with flexible foundation is presented. A simple soil–structure system similar to that used in practice to take into account the inertial interaction effects by the soil flexibility is studied. The kinematic interaction effects due to non‐vertically incident P, SV and Rayleigh waves are accounted for in this model. The effective period and damping of the system are obtained by establishing an equivalence between the interacting system excited by the foundation input motion and a replacement oscillator excited by the free‐field ground motion. In this way, the maximum structural response could be estimated from standard free‐field response spectra using the period and damping of the building modified by both the soil flexibility and the travelling wave effects. Also, an approximate solution for the travelling wave problem is examined over wide ranges of the main parameters involved. Numerical results are computed for a number of soil–structure systems to identify under which conditions the effects of wave passage are important. It comes out that these effects are generally negligible for the system period, but they may significantly change the system damping since the energy dissipation within the soil depends on both the wave radiation and the diffraction and scattering of the incident waves by the foundation. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青藏高原腹地湖泊沉积纪录的“仙女木期”古气候颤动事件

通过对青藏高原腹地钻孔岩心剖面的最新研究,用层序地层学与年代地层学和气候地层学相结合的方法,分辨出可可西里地区苟弄措湖泊沉积记录(孔深7.25 m)约30 ka BP以来的古气候变化,并在孔深3.32～1.98 m处识别出“仙女本期”的3个气候颤动事件,即:①老仙女术事件(孔深3.32～2.62 m);②中仙女本事件(孔深2.62～2.43 m);③新仙女本事件(孔深2.43～1.98 m)。这3个气候颤动事件都是以冷干时段开始、以冷湿时段结束的,并有越向后期其冷干的时段越长的变化趋势,而其后的冷湿时段却具有等时的变化趋势。岩心沉积物的有机碳、有机氮和磁化率以及化学元素含量的变化,都与仙女本期气候变化具有十分吻合的变化态势。仙女术期气候在湖泊沉积物中的响应,在青藏高原环境演化中还是首次发现,为研究第四纪末次冰期冰消期以来的气候变化提供了新的信息。     

区域地下水位预报的季节型神经网络模型

根据西北干旱区地下水位周期性变化趋势明显的特点,提出了测井水位预报的季节型神经网络模型。同时,针对系列不同周期内变幅各异的特点,对监测序列进行了光滑处理。预报结果表明:该模型预测效果较好,运行合理,对规律性不强的地下水位动态预报具有一定的实用价值。     

岚县种植马铃薯的气候条件分析

对岚县马铃薯各生育时段的降水量、光照、有效积温及肥力进行分析，并且就如何提高高寒山区马铃薯产量品质也作了探讨。     

THE DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE ANOMALOUS ENSO DEVELOPMENTS IN 1990S

By using the wavelet transform method,the ENSO(2—7 a)signal and the decadal variability(8—20 a)are filtered out from the long-term SST data sets in order to investigate characteristicsof the decadal variability and its impact on the ENSO.It is found that there are two different kindsof decadal SSTA modes-horseshoe and horse saddle patterns in the tropical Pacific.Thehorseshoe pattern represents that the decadal SSTA variability in the central Pacific is in phasewith that in the eastern Pacific.The horse saddle pattern is named that they are out of phase.Theformer constituted the decadal variability before 1990s and the latter mainly prevailed during1990s.As the response of atmosphere to the ocean,two decadal wind patterns appear inassociation with the SST decadal modes.One is characterized by anomalous development of thezonal wind,the other by anomalous development of the meridional wind.These two kinds ofmodes can also be regarded as different phases of the decadal oscillation.Further studies haveshown that the influences of the two kinds of modes on the ENSO are different.The horse saddlemode has a stronger impact on the ENSO than the horseshoe mode.A possible mechanism for the influence of the decadal variability on the ENSO signal ispresented.The central part of the thermocline along the equatorial Pacific moves up or downsimultaneously with its eastern part while the decadal variability bears the horseshoe pattern.Butthe two segments of the thermocline in the central and eastern Pacific act oppositely while thedecadal variability shows the horse saddle pattern.In this case it has an-influence on the individualENSO'events by the superposition of the decadal variability.     

热带平流层臭氧准两年周期振荡的特征及数值模拟

利用HALOE的观测资料、对热带地区平流层臭氧垂直分布的年际变化及其准两年周期振荡（QBO）进行研究，并同赤道上空平均的纬向风场的准两年周期振荡进行了模拟研究。资料分析结果表明，平流层臭氧浓度高值区的位置在南北方向上和垂直方向上的有明显的准两年周期，臭氧浓度高值中心的南北移动和上下移动又引起局地臭氧总量的周期性变化和准两年周期振荡南北半球不对称。而臭氧浓度中心位置的准两年周期变化与赤道上空平均纬向风的准两年周期振荡密切相关。资料分析还表明，赤道上空平流层中臭氧浓度QBO的位相随高度变化多次。模拟试验表明，纬向风QBO引起垂直经圈环流的变化，在平流层有三对余差环流圈。它们对O3在不同纬度和高度的输送是引起O3准两年周期振荡的重要动力原因。其中，余差环流在平流层中层（25－35km)的环流圈起着重要的作用。