Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO₂ from combustion by about 85 MtCO₂ by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO₂ not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO₂ by 2030.     

自适应联邦滤波器在GPS-INS-Odometer组合导航的应用

针对多传感器观测信息较多、计算效率较低、对动力学模型误差稳键性不佳的问题,提出了一种自适应联邦滤波器并应用于GPS-INS-Odometer组合导航。首先介绍GPS-INS-Odometer组合导航的动力学模型和观测模型,比较分析了信息分配因子和自适应因子的共同特性,论证了联邦滤波器和自适应滤波器的等价性及其等价成立条件,提出了自适应联邦滤波器的信息分配因子构造方法。最后利用实测数据验证了算法的有效性。结果表明,相比于基于GPS和Odometer(里程计)初始方差构造信息分配因子的联邦滤波器,本文提出的自适应联邦滤波器兼容了联邦滤波器高效计算效率,且具有较好的抵抗动力学模型误差效果,能够有效削弱多传感器动力学模型误差对于导航解算的影响,对直接可测参数和间接可测参数的精度提高均起到了积极的作用。     

干涉图像第二类统计Goldstein自适应滤波方法

干涉图滤波是InSAR数据处理中的关键步骤之一,滤波结果的优劣会直接影响到相位观测的质量和最终产品精度。本文结合干涉图滤波算法的研究进展,对Goldstein频率域滤波及其经典改进算法进行了系统分析和比较,在此基础上提出了一种基于第二类统计的稳健相干性估计量的Goldstein自适应滤波方法。本文采用模拟数据和Envisat ASAR真实数据与现有方法进行了验证,试验结果表明,新的滤波方法在保持细节和抑制噪声方面优势更加明显。     

一种改进的基于 BDS 三频非差观测的周跳实时探测与修复模型

BDS三频观测条件下可以组合得到具有优良特性的虚拟载波观测量,有利于改善非差观测数据的周跳实时探测与修复。文中提出一种基于BDS三频非差数据的周跳实时探测与修复模型:首先,采用消电离层无几何HMW组合观测量探测和修复EWL周跳;然后,将经过修复的EWL观测量与WL组合消除几何相关项,忽略电离层延迟残差进而确定WL周跳;最后采用经过修复的WL观测量与NL组合形成无几何观测量,并通过优化载波相位组合确定电离层延迟的变化量以探测和计算NL周跳,并通过简单变换得到原始载波观测量的周跳值。通过实测BDS三频数据对模型可行性进行验证分析,结果表明,即使在30s的采样率以及电离层活动活跃条件下,该模型都可有效实时探测和修复各类周跳。     

水库群水沙调控的单-多目标调度模型及其应用

为缓解内蒙古河段"二级悬河"形势,以黄河上游沙漠宽谷河段为研究对象,以龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库为调控主体,开展黄河上游水沙调控研究。建立了输沙量、发电量最大的单目标模型以及多目标模型;分别采用自迭代模拟算法、逐次逼近动态规划算法(DPSA)和改进的非支配排序遗传优化算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)求解模型;设置了初始、常规、优化和联合优化4种方案。通过实例计算,联合优化调度方案的区间总冲刷量达到了0.38亿t,梯级发电量148.22亿kW·h。该方案以较小的电量损失换来了输沙量的大幅度增加,水沙调控效果显著,推荐为最优方案。研究成果量化了水沙调控效果和各目标间的转化规律,为开展黄河上游水沙调控提供了决策依据,具有重要的应用价值和实际指导意义。     

Underwater Navigation Based on Real-Time Simultaneous Sound Speed Profile Correction

Precise sound speed profile (SSP) information is critical when using sonar for underwater terrain navigation. Nevertheless, acquiring SSP information in real-time is difficult, especially in underwater navigation environment. To account for this problem, this paper presents an underwater navigation method that applies real-time SSP correction to the terrain measurements. The method uses a probe to measure the surface sound speed simultaneously. Meanwhile, redundancy of topographic measurement data is exploited to derive the equivalent SSP information. The acquired equivalent SSP is updated continuously with particle filter algorithm. The terrain measurements can be corrected in real-time with the equivalent SSP to improve the performance of underwater terrain navigation. By removing the impact of inaccurate SSP from the terrain measurements, the proposed method can achieve precise and robust underwater navigation result without using an underway-profiling instrument. Simulated results confirm the good performance of the proposed method.     

高等级海况条件下移动式海上基地动力响应分析

针对半潜式超大型浮式结构中典型的移动式海上基地(Mobile Offshore Base,MOB)在高等级海况下的动力响应问题展开研究。在MOB结构"刚性模块-柔性连接构件(Rigid Modules and Flexible Connectors,RMFC)"模型的前提下,根据动力学基本原理,经理论推导并计算得到MOB分别在6、7、8级海况的随机波激励下,其上各模块的动力响应位移结果。详细分析了MOB结构同一模块在不同海况条件下的动力响应位移随浪向角及连接构件刚度的变化规律。研究成果可为半潜式超大型浮式结构动力响应研究及结构优化设计提供一定的技术支撑。     

高频地波雷达海杂波背景下的船只目标检测研究进展

针对海杂波对高频地波雷达目标检测的干扰问题,分目标处于海杂波谱区之内和之外两种情况综述了海杂波背景下的目标检测方法。对于海杂波内目标检测的难题,介绍了一种基于现场海态同步观测信息的检测新思路以及初步验证结果。对国内外相关研究进展的归纳总结和新思路的提出,为提出更加有效的海杂波干扰下的目标检测方法提供了重要的参考。     

Emerging Asias: Transnational Forces,Developmental States,and “Asian Values”

Discussions of East Asian developmental states and Asian values discourse have been deformed by national-territorial frameworks that limit scholars' ability to highlight transnational phenomena. Such limits can be overcome by adopting a “Pacificist” perspective, one that highlights the transnational collaborative efforts of Pacific ruling class members, from both Asia and the United States. Such a Pacificist approach has the virtue of highlighting phenomena of transnational class formation that help account for the emergence of both developmental states in East Asia and Asian values discourse, and it also suggested the importance of attending to other kinds of emerging actors in Asian development politics, such as labor and democracy movements.     

利用电子探针研究甘肃陇南赵家庄金矿载金矿物特征

应用偏光显微镜与电子探针相结合的手段是研究载金矿物的主要方法。本文采用镜下鉴定和电子探针分析技术,对赵家庄金矿中载金矿物含量、形态特征及其与其他矿物的空间关系开展研究,并对载金矿物进行定性和定量分析,探寻具有找矿意义的载金矿物和总结标志矿物特征。结果表明:研究区金矿石中主要载金矿物为黄铁矿,少量为黄铜矿、闪锌矿,这些载金矿物中Au含量依次为:细晶黄铁矿粗晶黄铁矿草莓状黄铁矿黄铜矿。不同时期的黄铁矿(粗晶黄铁矿、细晶黄铁矿、草莓状黄铁矿)中Au的分布均匀,但存在差异性,主要表现为细晶黄铁矿和草莓状黄铁矿中的Au含量较高(平均含量0. 14%～0. 18%),这种现象表明此类矿物为构造热液期形成,金易富集。Au以两种形式存在,一种是"可见金"包裹于脉石矿物中,或以裂隙金的形式嵌布在矿物晶隙及裂隙中;另一种是"不可见金"以纳米级颗粒金的形式存在于载金矿物中,也是Au的主要存在形式。本研究为后期矿床的成因、成矿过程和成矿机理研究提供了佐证,同时易于根据含金矿物的特征选择合适的选冶方法。