科学决策是业务系统建设持续发展的根本保证 ——国家气象中心数值预报业务系统建设回忆

回顾了中央气象台60年来,数值天气预报(NWP)业务系统的发展历程。指出NWP系统是一项气象工程系统建设,是多学科理论和技术相结合的结果。回顾了从目标方向、技术路线、工作方式、人才队伍培养以及土建设计等方面的科学决策和实践过程,阐述了科学决策是业务系统建设持续发展的根本保证。从建设事例中可以看到30年来NWP顺利发展的历史证明了科学发展观的正确性。     

西北地区沙尘暴天气监测预警服务业务系统

西北地区沙尘暴天气监测预警服务业务系统由沙尘天气资料库、沙尘天气监测、沙尘天气预报和沙尘天气服务4个子系统构成,是一个具有较好物理基础、较强监测预报服务能力、较高自动化程度并具有西北区域沙尘暴气候特色的综合业务系统,业务试运行期间,在2003、2004年春季几次沙尘暴天气的预报服务中发挥了重大作用,并取得了良好的社会经济效益。该系统为西部大开发气象服务提供了有力的技术保障,为西部地区环境保护和环境监测奠定了基础。     

The Jason-1 Mission Special Issue: Jason-1 Calibration/Validation

On December 7, 2001, the Jason-1 satellite was successfully launched by a Boeing Delta II rocket from the Vandenberg site in California, USA. Its main mission was to maintain the high accuracy altimeter measurements, provided since 1992 by TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P), ensuring continuity in observing and monitoring the ocean for intraseasonal to interannual changes, mean sea level, tides, and so forth. Despite four times less mass and power, the Jason-1 system has been designed to have the same performances as T/P, measuring sea surface topography at the centimeter level. This new Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales/National Aeronautics and Space Administration (CNES/NASA) mission also provides near real-time data for sea state and ocean forecast. The first 10 months of the Jason mission were dedicated to the verification of the system performance and cross-calibration with T/P measurements. A complete CALVAL plan was conducted by the Science and Project Teams of the mission based on in situ and regional experiments, global statistical approaches, and multisatellite comparisons, taking advantage of the T/P-Jason overlap during the first months of the mission. CALVAL and first science results showed that the Jason-1 performances were compliant with prelaunch specifications. This was a needed preamble before starting the routine phase of the mission in July 2003 with generation and distribution of validated geophysical data records to the whole user community.     

城乡供水项目环境影响评价工作研究

项目环境影响包括大气环境、声环境、水环境、固体废弃物以及水土流失的影响。在环境评价工作中,通过替代方案比选、关联项目尽职调查、公众参与协商、采取减缓措施、实施环境与社会管理计划等途径减轻对环境保护目标的影响,将其影响程度和范围控制在国家法律法规和世界银行业务政策允许的框架内。     

天水市新型预报业务服务系统

基于 92 10工程建设和地 -县计算机网络改造升级 ,从本地预报业务服务工作的需求和实际出发 ,使研究与开发相结合 ,注重技术创新 ,建立了集信息处理、天气预报、气候预测、气象服务和业务管理为一体的新型预报业务服务系统。     

Operational Monitoring and Forecasting in the Aegean Sea: System Limitations and Forecasting Skill Evaluation

The POSEIDON system, based on a network of 11 oceanographic buoys and a system of atmospheric/oceanic models, provides real-time observations and forecasts of the marine environmental conditions in the Aegean Sea. The buoy network collects meteorological, sea state and upper-ocean physical and biochemical data. The efficiency and functionality of the various system components are being evaluated during the present pre-operational phase and discussed in this paper. The problem of bio-fouling on optical and chemical sensors is found to be a main limitation factor on the quality of data. Possible solutions to this problem as well as quality control methods that are being developed are also described. Finally, an evaluation of the numerical models is presented through the estimation of their forecasting skill for selected periods.     

江苏环境气象指数开发技术初探

根据江苏省人们生活和各行各业对气象条件的依从性和敏感度的大量特种资料，探讨了气象指数与气象要素的敏感度和依从性，将多种气象要素综合，构成线性或非线性环境气象指数。利用数值预报释用方法，实现了环境气象指数系列计算和预报。提出了气象指数的分级与建议，建立了环境气象指数系列的业务系统。     

On the prediction of relativistic electron fluence based on its relationship with geomagnetic activity over a solar cycle

A study has been carried out to determine the relationship between high energy relativistic (>2 MeV) electron fluence and auroral zone geomagnetic activity for a solar cycle. Data for 1987–1997, spanning Solar Cycle 22, were used in the study. The relativistic electron fluence data were based on fluxes observed by the GOES geosynchronous satellites. The geomagnetic data were the DRX indices derived from a Canadian magnetic observatory located in the auroral zone at Fort Churchill, near the footprint of field lines passing through geostationary satellites. This work, based on data from a solar cycle, confirms earlier findings using limited data from segments of a solar cycle of enhancement in fluence 2–3 days after increases in geomagnetic activity, and shows the cycle dependence of fluence with respect to geomagnetic activity. This study underlines the influence of recurrent coronal holes on fluence level as well as the possible role of Pc5 magnetic pulsations as an electron acceleration mechanism, and highlights the predictability of fluence from ground geomagnetic data. A fluence prediction algorithm can now solely be based on derived expressions relating fluence and DRX. Thus, a simple fluence prediction scheme can easily be implemented to provide a 2–3 day advance warning of space weather conditions hazardous to geosynchronous satellites, since during days of high fluence, the likelihood of internal charging in a satellite is high, with possible discharges that could result in satellite operational anomalies. For verification purpose, daily values of fluence for 1997–2000 and for January 1994 were postcast using the derived expressions. The postcast values were validated, and the results give credence to the fluence prediction scheme.     

我国新一代天气雷达网监测系统

简要介绍了我国正在布网的雷达的特点和功能以及雷达气象产品及其气象应用软件，给出了冰雹云识别和跟踪、中尺度气旋、暴雨等产品的个例。新一代天气雷达系统具有较强的对灾害性天气监测、预警能力，对较大范围内降水(台风)进行定量估测的能力，以及获取回波信号中风场信息的能力，是综合探测、分析、预测、预警功能为一体的智能型系统。     

一次问卷调查的若干启示

通过一次问卷调查,得到了较详细的定量信息,进一步了解广西业务技术指导体系的现状及存在的主要问题。在分析探究的基础上,对广西业务技术指导工作,提出了若干的改进意见。