对全球大地震预测的验证与分析

1980年,笔者应用地震对称迁移图象预测了全球大地震,其中包括12项主要预测意见和5项补充预测意见。近十年间,大多数预测意见已获得令人满意的效果。这说明作为一种新方法,对称迁移图象可能对地震长期预测的实践具有重要意义。     

Lateral migration,thermoluminescence chronology and colour variation of longitudinal dunes near Birdsville in the Simpson Desert,central Australia

The longitudinal dunes of the Simpson Desert, in the vicinity of Birdsville, have been reworked largely during the Holocene from dunes deposited up to 80000 years ago or earlier. The widespread asymmetry of these roughly northward-trending dunes, with steeper eastern faces and more gentle western faces, supports wind-rose data showing sand-transporting winds from the southwest obliquely intersecting the dunes. While this suggests a change in the wind pattern since the dune field was oriented, it does not indicate that the dunes are necessarily shifting leeward (eastward) as a consequence. It is hypothesized that the direction of migration is controlled by the extent to which the dunes are vegetated. Relatively well-vegetated dunes can accrete sand on their gentle stoss slopes and erode on their lee slopes causing them to shift westward and hence obliquely into the wind, a condition that probably prevails in wetter regions and during episodes of relatively humid climate. In contrast, in very dry areas or during arid phases, sand can move unimpeded up a sparsely vegetated stoss face and over the crest to form an avalanche or slip face on the lee side, thereby causing the dunes to shift eastward. Despite evidence that longitudinal dune crests can shift laterally to some extent, the dunes in the western part of the Simpson Desert have not migrated, either westward or eastward, more than 100m or so from their Pleistocene cores. Aeolian transport and partial or complete removal of iron cutans from around quartz grains results in dunes of widely varying colour yet of similar age.     

Silica mobility and fluid movement during metamorphism of the Connemara schists, Ireland

Quartz veins are developed in a wide range of metasediment types in the upper amphibolite facies rocks of Connemara, and attest to considerable migration of silica. Contrary to common assumptions, there is clear evidence that these veins do not primarily result from movement of fluid to regions of lower P–T down the regional geothermal gradient. Under amphibolite facies conditions, a dilute chloride fluid moving down temperature has the potential to alter 60g of plagioclase to muscovite for each gram of vein quartz precipitated, while cooling over the temperature interval from 650 to 500° C. The absence of significant metasomatic effects in the vein walls effectively precludes a simple origin from such through-flowing, externally derived fluids. The oxygen isotopic composition of matrix quartz shows considerable differences between different rock types (quartzite, pelite and marble), with a range of δ¹⁸O_SMOW from c.+ 11.5% (quartzite) to + 18.5% (marble). In each rock type, vein quartz compositions closely match those of the matrix quartz. These results demonstrate the importance of local segregation processes in the formation of veins, and suggest that fluid convection cells were not developed during metamorphism on a scale larger than the individual sedimentary formations, if at all. Both oxygen isotope data and the absence of metasomatism indicate that veins form primarily by segregation of quartz from the host lithologies, with only a relatively minor component of through flow of externally derived fluid. Veins are clearly not the major pathways of metamorphic dewatering. It is proposed that abundant veins in the predominantly pelitic Ballynakill Formation formed during peak metamorphic D3 folding because the formation was embrittled by high fluid pressures but was capped by impermeable marble. Hence the pelitic formation fractured repeatedly and the pore fluid drained through the fractures to form veins, while irreversible loss through the rest of the succession was a much less important process. In the central mountains of Connemara, rather pure, unreactive quartzites are cut by widely spaced, laterally extensive quartz veins that are axial planar to D3 folds. These veins may mark pathways whereby metamorphic fluid made its way through the massive impermeable quartzite from lower parts of the nappe pile, but here too, oxygen isotope data indicate considerable segregation of locally derived quartz, reflecting the importance of pumping of fluid between wail rocks and fractures relative to the component of through flow.     

青藏块体及其周边地震活动

本文从青藏块体及其周边地区地震活动幕的划分入手,分析各期地震活动的图象特征,寻求本区地震发生的时空规律,探讨本区的地震活动与印度板块运动的内在联系,从而对今后本区地震活动的大形势进行了预测。     

韧性剪切作用下千枚岩中SiO2的迁移模拟实验—以金山金矿为例

实验较好地模拟了韧性剪切作用过程中ＳｉＯ２“释放－局部迁移”的迁移过程。实验结果表明：４００℃条件下,绢云母,绿泥石等矿物在韧性剪切作用下分解,解释出大量ＳｉＯ２,在成矿流体的参与下发生局部迁移,聚集。要使ＳｉＯ２发生大规模的迁移,富集,还需要一个相对开放的环境（如脆性剪切变形）。     

Migrating sand waves

A simple mathematical model is described, which reproduces the major features of sand waves' appearance and growth and in particular predicts their migration speed. The model is based on the linear stability analysis of the flat configuration of the sea bottom subject to tidal currents. Attention is focused on the prediction of the complex growth rate that bottom perturbations undergo because of both oscillatory fluid motions and residual currents. While the real part _r of controls the amplification or decay of the amplitude of the bedforms, the imaginary part _i is related to their migration speed. Previous works on the migration of the sand waves (Németh etal. 2002) consider a forcing tide made up by the M2 constituent (oscillatory period equal to 12 h) plus the residual current Z0 and predict always a downcurrent migration of the bedforms. However, field cases exist of upcurrent-migrating sand waves (downcurrent/upcurrent-migrating sand waves mean bedforms moving in the direction of the steady residual tidal current or in the opposite direction, respectively). The inclusion of a tide constituent characterized by a period of 6 h (M4) is the main novelty of the present work, which allows for the prediction of the migration of sand waves against the residual current Z0. Indeed, the M4 tide constituent, as does also the residual current Z0, breaks the symmetry of the problem forced only by the M2 tide constituent, and induces sand-wave migration. The model proposed by Besio etal. (2003a) forms the basis for the present analysis. Previous works on the subject (Gerkema 2000; Hulscher 1996a,b; Komarova and Hulscher 2000) are thus improved by using a new solution procedure (Besio etal. 2003a) which allows for a more accurate evaluation of the growth rate for arbitrary values of the parameter r, which is the ratio between the horizontal tidal excursion and the perturbation wavelength. Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

中国江南先秦时期人类活动与环境变化

从江南先秦时期不同阶段内遗址内涵和位置的变化着手,分析江南人类活动与环境变迁的关系,探索江南先秦文化遗址中文化层年代不连续的原因,找提出江南先秦文化中心变迁的路径。江南先民是从适应自然走向改造自然道路的,由于认识和改造自然的能力有限,江南土著文化随自然条件发生兴衰,而这种兴衰又成为土著文化相互渗透和交融的动力。     

曙光4000A上三维叠前深度偏移并行计算的应用设计

波动方程叠前深度偏移在地震勘探成像处理方面起着不可替代的作用。随着高性能大规模并行计算机技术的发展,波动方程叠前深度偏移计算在地震勘探中的应用有了很大进步。在波动方程叠前深度偏移处理中,庞大的数据规模与海量计算对计算性能提出了很高的要求。曙光4000A超级计算机系统是我国目前峰值速度最快的商用超级计算机系统,无论是硬件平台建设还是应用软件的配置方面,都具有良好的应用性能。基于该系统设计的三维波动方程叠前深度偏移(炮域)PSDM软件,采用动态负载平衡并行计算模式,具有较高的计算效率,高度的可扩展性和可靠性。     

曙光雷达数据处理软件系统

针对岩土工程探测对象的隐蔽性与复杂性,开发了曙光雷达数据处理软件系统,实现了不同类型雷达数据的共享数据处理、分形处理、偏移、联合反演、小波变换等功能;现场验证及试用结果表明,该软件系统可以改善地下目的物探测的分辨率和真实度,可为岩土工程施工提供较准确的地下障碍物资料。