厄尔尼诺现象对北半球大气环流和中国降水的影响

本文主要讨论了厄尔尼诺现象对北半球大气环流和中国季风降水的影响。研究表明，在厄尔尼诺开始年的春夏季，对流层上部位势高度和副热带高压都处在由弱到强的转变状态，我国东部地区大范围少雨；秋季发生明显的趋势转折，秋季到次年夏季，对流层上部位势高度升高，副高增强西伸，除次年2、3月份全国大范围少雨外，其余月份大都为南多北少的分布型，这种分布形态在开始年秋季最典型。厄尔尼诺开始年、次年，长江中下游入梅期偏晚。     

SEASONAL AND INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WARM POOL AND ITS RELATION TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET

The South China Sea warm pool interacts vigorously with the summer monsoon which is active in the region. However, there has not been a definition concerning the former warm pool which is as specific as that for the latter. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the South China Sea warm pool and its relations to the South China Sea monsoon onset were analyzed using Levitus and NCEP/NCAR OISST data. The results show that, the seasonal variability of the South China Sea warm pool is obvious, which is weak in winter, develops rapidly in spring, becomes strong and extensive in summer and early autumn, and quickly decays from mid-autumn. The South China Sea warm pool is 55 m in thickness in the strongest period and its axis is oriented from southwest to northeast with the main section locating along the western offshore steep slope of northern Kalimantan-Palawan Island. For the warm pools in the South China Sea, west Pacific and Indian Ocean, the oscillation, which is within the same large scale air-sea coupling system, is periodic around 5 years. There are additional oscillations of about 2.5 years and simultaneous inter-annual variations for the latter two warm pools. The intensity of the South China Sea warm pool varies by a lag of about 5 months as compared to the west Pacific one. The result also indicates that the inter-annual variation of the intensity index is closely related with the onset time of the South China Sea monsoon. When the former is persistently warmer (colder) in preceding winter and spring, the monsoon in the South China Sea usually sets in on a later (earlier) date in early summer. The relation is associated with the activity of the high pressure over the sea in early summer. An oceanic background is given for the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon, though the mechanism through which the warm pool and eventually the monsoon are affected remains unclear.     

通量堆积和偶极化过程中的超低频波动

2004年9月17日TC-1卫星在近地磁尾夜侧观测到一次伴随有通量堆积和偶极化过程的典型亚暴事件.本文利用离散小波分析和FFT分析方法对本次事件中4 s精度的FGM和HIA数据进行分析,以了解通量堆积过程和偶极化过程中的低频波特性.分析结果表明,通量堆积过程和偶极化过程中场和粒子有明显的不规则低频波动,主要波动频率范围为4~15 mHz,和Pi-2脉动一致.通量堆积过程中磁场各个分量的低频波动和偶极化过程中的低频波动有明显不同,表明这两个物理过程可能存在不同的波动机制.在通量堆积过程和偶极化过程中,平行磁场方向上温度和速度的波动和垂直方向上温度和速度的波动有明显区别,平行磁场方向上温度和速度的波动有较好的相关性,且热离子密度的波动和平行磁场方向上的波动有较好的相关性,表明存在快模压缩波.TC-1卫星的观测显示通量堆积过程中磁场By分量有明显增长.我们的分析结果表明ULF波与By分量的增长有密切关系,从而可能对亚暴膨胀相的触发有重要影响.     

成矿动力系统在混沌边缘分形生长——一种新的成矿理论与方法论(上)

“成矿动力系统在混沌边缘分形生长”理论是笔者将复杂性理论及非线性科学与矿床地质学相结合 ,对中国扬子古陆周缘六个矿集区的基本范式进行长期系统研究所取得的总结性成果。研究指出 ,成矿系统总体上是开放、远离平衡、时空延展的动力学系统。它们具有复杂性和自组织临界性的内禀基本属性 ,并且在混沌边缘分形生长。该理论以“地质作用与时 空结构是一切地质现象的本质与核心”的自然哲学理念作为根本立足点 ,建立起一种具有普适性的理论框架。然后进一步将其具体化为三大组成部分 ,即 ( 1)矿床的动力学属性 ,( 2 )矿床地质学场 ,( 3 )成矿系统的演化。体现了成矿作用 (其核心为成矿作用动力学 )、空间结构 (矿床地质学场 )和时间结构 (成矿系统的演化 )三位一体的整体耦合与交织 ,从而又使该理论具有包容性。在此基础上进而归纳出“成矿动力系统在混沌边缘分形生长”的 5项判定准则以及表征这些准则的 10项相应的动力学行为特征。最后笔者提出“矿质局部活化导致成矿的发生”的命题 ,拟定了“成矿的发生”的重要科学问题 ,以“元胞非线性网络”(CNN)作为复杂性的范式 ,定量揭示成矿的发生 ,并对矿床在混沌边缘作精确定位 ,对“成矿动力系统在混沌边缘”理论作进一步的延伸、深化与发展。该理论在矿?     

迭代累积平方和算法与自回归赤池准则算法在地震信号到时估算中的比较研究

介绍了不同于自回归赤池准则算法(AR-AIC)的另外一种到时估算方法累积和法(CUSUM). 作为一种序贯分析方法, 累积和法主要用于满足一定噪声假设且相对稳定的数据序列中, 用以检测其发生异常改变的信号到时位置. 其中重点介绍了改进后的累积和算法迭代累积平方和算法(ICSS)的基本原理及其在区域震到时估算方面的应用实例, 并将其与AR-AIC算法的到时估算结果进行了比较分析. 分析结果表明, 相对于AR-AIC算法, ICSS算法在对区域震S波和Lg波的到时估算方面具有估算误差小、 计算时间短的优势, 具有一定的应用价值.     

ONSET AND RETREAT DATES OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE MONSOON INTENSITY IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE WARMING

Global gridded daily mean data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis(1948-2012) are used to obtain the onset date,retreat date and duration time series of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) for the past 65 years.The summer monsoon onset(retreat) date is defined as the time when the mean zonal wind at 850 hPa shifts steadily from easterly(westerly) to westerly(easterly) and the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature at the same level remains steady at greater than 335 K(less than 335 K) in the South China Sea area[110-120°E(10-20°N)].The clockwise vortex of the equatorial Indian Ocean region,together with the cross-equatorial flow and the subtropical high,plays a decisive role in the burst of the SCSSM.The onset date of the SCSSM is closely related to its intensity.With late(early) onset of the summer monsoon,its intensity is relatively strong(weak),and the zonal wind undergoes an early(late) abrupt change in the upper troposphere.Climate warming significantly affects the onset and retreat dates of the SCSSM and its intensity.With climate warming,the number of early-onset(-retreat) years of the SCSSM is clearly greater(less),and the SCSSM is clearly weakened.     

Strengthened Regulation of the Onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon by the Northwest Indian Ocean Warming in the Past Decade

Traditionally,a delayed(early)onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)has been observed to follow a warm(cold)El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)event in winter,supporting high seasonal predictability of SCSSM onset.However,the empirical seasonal forecasting skill of the SCSSM onset,solely based on ENSO,has deteriorated since 2010.Meanwhile,unexpected delayed onsets of the SCSSM have also occurred in the past decade.We attribute these changes to the Northwest Indian Ocean(NWIO)warming of the sea surface.The NWIO warming has teleconnections related to(1)suppressing the seasonal convection over the South China Sea,which weakens the impacts of ENSO on SCSSM onset and delays the start of SCSSM,and(2)favoring more high-frequency,propagating moist convective activities,which enhances the uncertainty of the seasonal prediction of SCSSM onset date.Our results yield insight into the predictability of the SCSSM onset under the context of uneven ocean warming operating within the larger-scale background state of global climate change.     

The Weakening Relationship between ENSO and the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in Recent Decades

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is traditionally regarded as the most important factor modulating the interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) onset. A preceding El Ni?o(La Ni?a) usually tends to be followed by a delayed(an advanced) monsoon onset. However, the close relationship between ENSO and SCSSM onset breaks down after the early-2000 s, making seasonal prediction very difficult in recent years. Three possible perspectives have been proposed to explain the weakening linkage between ENSO and SCSSM onset, including interdecadal change of the ENSO teleconnection(i.e., the Walker circulation), interferences of other interannual variability(i.e., the Victoria mode), and disturbances on intraseasonal time scales(i.e., the quasi-biweekly oscillation). By comparing the epochs of 1979–2001 and 2002–19, it is found that the anomalous tropical Walker circulation generated by ENSO is much weaker in the latter epoch and thus cannot deliver the ENSO signal to the SCSSM onset. Besides, in recent years, the SCSSM onset is more closely linked to extratropical factors like the Victoria mode, and thus its linkage with ENSO becomes weaker. In addition to these interannual variabilities, the intraseasonal oscillations like the quasi-biweekly oscillation can disrupt the slow-varying seasonal march modulated by ENSO. Thus, the amplified quasi-biweekly oscillation may also contribute to the weakening relationship after the early-2000 s. Given the broken relationship between ENSO and SCSSM onset, the extratropical factors should be considered in order to make skillful seasonal predictions of SCSSM onset, and more attention should be paid to the extended-range forecast based on intraseasonal oscillations.     

IMPACT OF HUMIDITY DATA ON THE PREDICTION OF ONSET VORTEX WITH A LIMITED AREA MODEL

A limited area model has been applied to study the impact of satellite-derived relative humidity data on the predic-tion of onset vortex of monsoon 1979.The results show that inclusion of satellite-derived relative humidity data im-proved the prediction of track of the cyclonic circulation and the rainfall rates in the region of the vortex.     

2021年南海夏季风爆发偏迟原因分析

通常La Ni?a年南海夏季风爆发偏早,但是2021年La Ni?a背景下南海夏季风于5月第6候爆发,较常年偏迟。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,从热带海温异常(SSTA)和季节内振荡(ISO)北传的角度来分析2021年南海夏季风爆发偏迟的原因。结果表明La Ni?a确实使春季的西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称西太副高)减弱,特别是4月之前;但是由于热带印度洋海温在冬春季持续偏暖的背景下抵消了La Ni?a的影响,特别是在5月,La Ni?a的影响小于热带印度洋的作用,导致5月西太副高偏强,南海夏季风爆发偏迟。此外,受La Ni?a影响,4月西太副高偏弱,南海地区背景正压南风偏弱,不利于南海地区赤道ISO的北传,这与气候态正好相反;随着热带印度洋SSTA的影响越来越显著,西太副高逐渐加强,直到5月下旬,背景正压经向南风才扩展到10°N以南地区,导致2021年南海地区赤道ISO北传偏迟,这也是2021年南海夏季风爆发偏迟的一个重要原因。热带印度洋和太平洋SSTA通过“竞争”共同对南海夏季风爆发产生影响,因此关注二者在冬春季的发展非常重要。