风暴尺度天气下利用集合卡尔曼滤波模拟多普勒雷达资料同化试验I.不考虑模式误差的情形

本文在假定模式无偏差的情况下, 利用一次风暴过程的模拟多普勒雷达资料进行一系列风暴天气尺度的集合卡尔曼滤波资料同化试验, 检验集合卡尔曼滤波在风暴天气尺度资料同化方面的效果, 并验证各集合卡尔曼滤波参数对同化效果的影响。试验结果表明, 集合卡尔曼滤波能有效地应用于风暴尺度的资料同化; 40个集合成员以及6 km的局地化尺度能较好地滤除采样误差造成的虚假相关, 同时可以将观测信息传递到无观测的模式格点; 利用背景场加上空间平滑的高斯型随机扰动生成初始成员的方式较未经过平滑的方式有更好的分析效果; 背景场扰动方法能够提高样本的离散度; 只同化反射率的同化试验表明, 反射率的同化效果较明显, 也证明了集合卡尔曼滤波在非常规资料同化中的作用; 增加径向风资料同化的效果优于只进行反射率同化的结果。     

Collisional disruption experiments of porous targets

More and more small bodies are found to be porous. Laboratory impact experiments of various porous materials have been performed, which increased our understanding of the impact process of porous bodies. In this review, we classify porous targets according to the internal structure, describe the physical properties that characterize these materials, and summarize some results of impact strength and the general tendency upon impact condition and material properties. The material property presented here includes a relation between applied load and distension although measured in static condition. Further investigation is required to clarify the role of crack growth and compaction in the time evolution of physical properties of porous materials upon impact. Laboratory experiments with detailed material properties will be useful as a database that can serve as a reference for numerical modeling and theoretical scaling considerations.     

Retardation capacity of altered granitic rock distributed along fractured and faulted zones in the orogenic belt of Japan

There are wide areas of granitic rocks in the Japanese orogenic belt. These granitic bodies inevitably contain fracture and fault systems associated with alteration zones. However, relatively little attention has been given to the possible influence of such widely distributed alteration zones on the migration of radionuclides from any radioactive waste repository that might in future be sited within granitic rock. In particular, the influences of alteration products and micro-fractures, due to chemical sorption and/or physical retardation require further consideration. In order to understand the retardation capacity of the altered deep granitic rocks, detailed geometrical characterization of pores, geochemical analysis, and batch sorption and flow-through experiments have been carried out. Those results show that the altered granite has a large volume of accessible pores, particularly in potassium-feldspar grains, which would influence nuclide retardation more than the accessible porosity in other minerals present, such as biotite. The distribution coefficients, Kd estimated from batch sorption tests and flow-through experiments suggest that altered granite has a high capability to retard the migration of nuclides. The retardation would probably be due to sorption on altered minerals such as sericite and iron hydroxides formed along grain boundaries and in pores created by dissolution, in addition to sorption on primary sorptive minerals. These results provide confidence that even altered and fractured parts of any granitic rock that might be encountered in a site for the disposal of high level radioactive waste may still retard radionuclide migration and thereby help the geosphere to function as a barrier.     

Breakdown of hydrous ringwoodite to pyroxene and spinelloid at high P and T and oxidizing conditions

To get deeper insight into the phase relations in the end-member system Fe₂SiO₄ and in the system (Fe, Mg)₂SiO₄ experiments were performed in a multi-anvil apparatus at 7 and 13 GPa and 1,000–1,200°C as a function of oxygen fugacity. The oxygen fugacity was varied using the solid oxygen buffer systems Fe/FeO, quartz–fayalite–magnetite, MtW and Ni/NiO. The run products were characterized by electron microprobe, Raman- and FTIR-spectroscopy, X-ray powder diffraction and transmission electron microscopy. At fO₂ corresponding to Ni/NiO Fe-ringwoodite transforms to ferrosilite and spinelloid according to the reaction: 9 Fe₂SiO₄ + O₂ = 6 FeSiO₃ + 5 Fe_2.40Si_0.60O₄. Refinement of site occupancies in combination with stoichiometric Fe³⁺ calculations show that 32% of the total Fe is incorporated as Fe³⁺ according to From the Rietveld refinement we identified spl as spinelloid III (isostructural with wadsleyite) and/or spinelloid V. As we used water in excess in the experiments the run products were also analyzed for structural water incorporation. Adding Mg to the system increases the stability field of ringwoodite to higher oxygen fugacity and the spinel structure seems to accept higher Fe³⁺ but also water concentrations that may be linked. At oxygen fugacity corresponding to MtW conditions similar phase relations in respect to the breakdown reaction in the Fe-end-member system were observed but with a strong fractionation of Fe into spl and Mg into coexisting cpx. Thus, through this strong fractionation it is possible to stabilize very Fe-rich wadsleyite with considerable Fe³⁺ concentrations even at an intermediate Fe–Mg bulk composition: assuming constant K _D independent on composition and a bulk composition of x _Fe = 0.44 this fractionation would stabilize spl with x _Fe = 0.72. Thus, spl could be a potential Fe³⁺ bearing phase at P–T conditions of the transition zone but because of the oxidizing conditions and the Fe-rich bulk composition needed one would expect it more in subduction zone environments than in the transition zone in senso stricto.

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室内模拟试验确定横向扩散系数的研究--以吉林市第二松花江某江段为例

确定河流横向扩散系数的主要方法有经验公式法和河流示踪试验法.以室内模拟试验求横向扩散系数的方法是一种新的尝试,采用几何相似原理,通过不同流量、流速条件下的室内模拟试验,计算出与河流相应条件下的横向扩散系数,所得结果(0.086 m2/s)与同条件下现场分析计算的结果(0.079～0.088 m2/s)基本一致.模拟试验不仅克服了野外条件下示踪剂投放和测试条件的不便,还能够更好地研究不同水动力条件下污染物的扩散运移规律.     

断裂熔融作用中单质铁的形成及其指示的孕震环境

目前缺乏来自于地震断裂带的假玄武玻璃的原始特征研究,制约着我们对地震孕震环境和地震发生机制的认识。本文以龙门山断裂带汶川科钻2号钻孔岩心的碎裂岩及花岗闪长岩为研究对象,通过氩气环境下的高温加热实验(最高温度达1750℃)、显微结构观察、地球化学分析和岩石磁学测试,探讨断裂熔融作用中单质铁的形成及其指示意义。花岗闪长岩和碎裂岩在1100℃时发生部分熔融作用,形成了非晶质和微晶;在≥1300℃时形成了大量单质铁组成的微球粒,可能是含铁矿物发生了以碳物质为还原剂的高温还原反应。高温实验后样品的磁化率值高于碎裂岩的磁化率值,新生成的磁铁矿是≤1100℃的样品高磁化率值的主要原因;熔融作用中形成的单质铁和少量的磁铁矿是≥1300℃样品高磁化率值的重要原因。结合前人对于快速摩擦实验熔体、地幔物质及陨石的研究,我们认为粘土矿物、硅酸盐矿物含量较多的断层泥在同震滑移中因热增压机制很难形成单质铁;而花岗岩、安山岩、辉长岩、闪长岩等岩浆岩和糜棱岩在流体作用弱和硫化物含量低的环境中易在大地震中形成单质铁。龙门山断裂带的假玄武玻璃的熔融温度≥1300℃,硫元素含量较低并发现有过剩铁元素。因此,表明龙门山断裂带的假玄武玻璃中可能形成了单质铁,其和磁铁矿是假玄武玻璃高磁化率值异常的重要原因,并指示了深部流体作用弱、硫化物含量低、还原性的孕震环境。     

Taguchi design-based seismic reliability analysis of geostructures

This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the seismic reliability of geostructures in an optimal way. Taguchi design of experiments are adopted to find the most efficient and cost-effective combination of material properties in the uncertainty domain. Twelve uniform and mixed design models are tested. A polynomial-based response surface meta-model is built for each one and the accuracy of perdition is examined using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. A two-dimensional gravity dam is used as a vehicle for probabilistic transient analyses. The ground motion record-to-record variability is added as well using over one hundred earthquake records selected based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Dynamic sensitivity of epistemic random variables are evaluated for the first time. Finally, an efficient and practical procedure is proposed in order to determine the reliability index of the geostructures. This approach, in fact, can be generalised for any type of engineering structures dealing with multi-hazard problems.     

一次局地大暴雨的地面观测资料同化预报试验研究

基于WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式及其3DVAR（3-Dimentional Variational）资料同化系统,采用36 km、12 km 、4 km三层嵌套网格进行逐3 h资料同化和快速更新循环预报,对2011年5月8日鲁中一次局地大暴雨过程进行了资料同化敏感性试验。试验结果表明,地面观测资料同化和快速更新循环对本次降水的预报起到了关键性作用。在快速更新循环预报时不同化地面观测资料,或同化全部观测资料进行冷启动预报,模式均不能预报出山东的降水。同化地面观测资料后,显著改进了模式降水落区预报。地面观测资料同化可以影响到700 hPa高度以上温压湿风要素的变化,从而改变了大气初始场的温湿结构,导致模式预报的700 hPa附近高空大气湿度和热力不稳定增强,700 hPa以下低层风场更强,850 hPa鲁中以南风速较无观测资料同化的偏强2～4 m·s-1,低层风场的动力作用触发高空的不稳定大气,降水出现在山东。     

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.